Sep 10, 2019
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials
HKPOP today releases popularity figures of CE and principal officials
Special Announcement
The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “HKPOP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.
Abstract
HKPOP successfully interviewed 1,046 Hong Kong residents by random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in early September. Results show that the latest popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 25.4 marks. Her net popularity is negative 55 percentage points. Her popularity figures have not changed much over the past two weeks. As for the Secretaries of Departments, as compared to one month ago, the latest support rating of CS Matthew Cheung has dropped significantly by 8.1 marks to 32.1. His net popularity stands at negative 23 percentage point, which goes down significantly by 24 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan has also dropped significantly by 4.8 marks to 28.0. His net popularity stands at negative 35 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her latest support rating is 17.7 marks and her net popularity stands at negative 59 percentage points. The ratings of all three Secretaries of Departments have registered their new record lows since they took office. As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of all 13 Directors have gone down. Except for those of Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing and Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong, the net approval rates of all other 11 Directors of Bureaux are at their record lows since they took office. The effective response rate of the survey is 69.5%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-6% and that of ratings is +/-2.2 at 95% confidence level.
Contact Information
| Date of survey | : | 2-4/9/2019 |
| Survey method | : | Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers |
| Target population | : | Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above |
| Sample size[1] | : | 1,046 (including 518 landline and 528 mobile samples) |
| Effective response rate[2] | : | 69.5% |
| Sampling error[3] | : | Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-6% and that of ratings not more than +/-2.2 at 95% confidence level |
| Weighting method[4] | : | Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2018”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong – Key Statistics (2018 Edition)”. |
[1] The landline and mobile sample ratio was revised to 2 to 1 in April 2018 and further revised to 1 to 1 in July 2019.
[2] Before September 2017, “overall response rate” was used to report surveys’ contact information. Starting from September 2017, “effective response rate” was used. In July 2018, POP further revised the calculation of effective response rate. Thus, the response rates before and after the change cannot be directly compared.
[3] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level, meaning that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
[4] In the past, the mobile sample would be rim-weighted according to the basic Public Sentiment Index (PSI) figures collected in the landline sample. In July 2018, POP further refined the weighting method. The landline sample and the mobile sample would no longer be processed separately. The mobile sample would also no longer be adjusted using the basic PSI figures collected in the landline sample. The overall effect is that the importance of the mobile sample would be increased.
Popularity of CE and Principal Officials
Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:
| Date of survey | 17-20/6/19 | 2-8/7/19 | 17-19/7/19 | 1-6/8/19 | 15-20/8/19 | 2-4/9/19 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 1,015 | 1,025 | 1,002 | 1,015 | 1,023 | 1,046 | — |
| Response rate | 58.7% | 67.4% | 59.8% | 62.8% | 68.5% | 69.5% | — |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | — |
| Rating of CE Carrie Lam | 32.8[5] | 33.4 | 30.1[5] | 27.9 | 24.6[5] | 25.4+/-2.0 | +0.7 |
| Vote of confidence in CE Carrie Lam | 23%[5] | 26% | 21%[5] | 20% | 17% | 19+/-2% | +2% |
| Vote of no confidence in CE Carrie Lam | 67%[5] | 66% | 70%[5] | 72% | 76%[5] | 75+/-3% | -2% |
| Net approval rate | -44%[5] | -40% | -49%[5] | -51% | -59%[5] | -55+/-5% | +4% |
[5] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Recent popularity figures of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:
| Date of survey | 8-11/4/19 | 6-9/5/19 | 3-6/6/19 | 2-8/7/19 | 1-6/8/19 | 2-4/9/19 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 634-673 | 592-642 | 553-616 | 583-641 | 574-580 | 640-679 | — |
| Response rate | 63.9% | 63.2% | 60.4% | 67.4% | 62.8% | 69.5% | — |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | — |
| Rating of CS Matthew Cheung | 45.9 | 43.5 | 43.2 | 38.0[6] | 40.1 | 32.1+/-2.2 | -8.1[6] |
| Vote of confidence in CS Matthew Cheung |
25% | 23% | 29%[6] | 26% | 28% | 18+/-3% | -10%[6] |
| Vote of no confidence in CS Matthew Cheung |
27% | 29% | 32% | 38%[6] | 27%[6] | 41+/-4% | +14%[6] |
| Net approval rate | -2% | -6% | -2% | -12%[6] | 1%[6] | -23+/-6% | -24%[6] |
| Rating of FS Paul Chan | 38.2 | 34.2[6] | 36.1 | 29.5[6] | 32.9[6] | 28.0+/-2.1 | -4.8[6] |
| Vote of confidence in FS Paul Chan | 18% | 16% | 19% | 17% | 19% | 19+/-3% | — |
| Vote of no confidence in FS Paul Chan | 53% | 51% | 47% | 57%[6] | 49%[6] | 55+/-4% | +5% |
| Net approval rate | -35% | -35% | -28% | -40%[6] | -30%[6] | -35+/-6% | -6% |
| Rating of SJ Teresa Cheng | 34.2 | 29.5[6] | 29.5 | 21.6[6] | 20.3 | 17.7+/-2.1 | -2.6 |
| Vote of confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng | 17% | 11%[6] | 16%[6] | 10%[6] | 11% | 10+/-2% | -1% |
| Vote of no confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng | 46%[6] | 52%[6] | 56% | 68%[6] | 63% | 68+/-4% | +5% |
| Net approval rate | -30%[6] | -41%[6] | -40% | -58%[6] | -53% | -59+/-5% | -6% |
[6] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Latest popularity figures of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below, in descending order of net approval rates[7]:
| Date of survey | 3-6/6/19 | 2-8/7/19 | 1-6/8/19 | 2-4/9/19 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 565-638 | 601-643 | 572-624 | 609-689 | — |
| Response rate | 60.4% | 67.4% | 62.8% | 69.5% | — |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | — |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan | 50% | 45% | 42% | 38+/-4% | -5% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan | 12% | 14% | 13% | 20+/-3% | +7%[8] |
| Net approval rate | 38% | 32% | 30% | 18+/-6% | -12%[8] |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau | 39% | 42% | 40% | 33+/-4% | -7%[8] |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau | 13% | 13% | 13% | 23+/-3% | +10%[8] |
| Net approval rate | 26% | 29% | 27% | 10+/-6% | -17%[8] |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing | 38%[8] | 38% | 34% | 31+/-4% | -3% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing | 20% | 20% | 20% | 22+/-3% | +2% |
| Net approval rate | 18% | 18% | 14% | 10+/-6% | -5% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury James Lau | 24% | 22% | 23% | 19+/-3% | -4% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury James Lau | 10% | 14%[8] | 13% | 17+/-3% | +5%[8] |
| Net approval rate | 15% | 8%[8] | 11% | 2+/-5% | -9%[8] |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong | 38%[8] | 38% | 32%[8] | 30+/-4% | -2% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong | 23%[8] | 21% | 26% | 28+/-4% | +2% |
| Net approval rate | 15%[8] | 17% | 6%[8] | 2+/-6% | -4% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Development Michael Wong | 26% | 23% | 26% | 20+/-3% | -5%[8] |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Development Michael Wong | 14% | 18%[8] | 19% | 21+/-3% | +2% |
| Net approval rate | 13% | 5%[8] | 6% | -1+/-5% | -7% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Joshua Law | 31% | 35% | 25%[8] | 21+/-3% | -4% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Joshua Law | 19%[8] | 19% | 25%[8] | 31+/-4% | +6%[8] |
| Net approval rate | 12%[8] | 16% | 0%[8] | -10+/-6% | -10%[8] |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang | 23% | 25% | 23% | 17+/-3% | -6%[8] |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang | 24%[8] | 27% | 26% | 33+/-4% | +7%[8] |
| Net approval rate | -1% | -2% | -2% | -16+/-5% | -14%[8] |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip | 20% | 19% | 21% | 17+/-3% | -4% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip | 22% | 30%[8] | 26% | 34+/-4% | +9%[8] |
| Net approval rate | -2% | -11%[8] | -5% | -17+/-6% | -12%[8] |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan | 26% | 24% | 23% | 21+/-3% | -2% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan | 34%[8] | 38% | 35% | 43+/-4% | +9%[8] |
| Net approval rate | -8% | -14% | -11% | -22+/-6% | -11%[8] |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung | 24% | 20% | 20% | 19+/-3% | -1% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung | 32%[8] | 46%[8] | 39%[8] | 51+/-4% | +11%[8] |
| Net approval rate | -7%[8] | -26%[8] | -19% | -32+/-6% | -13%[8] |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah | 22% | 21% | 18% | 15+/-3% | -2% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah | 40% | 49%[8] | 49% | 57+/-4% | +8%[8] |
| Net approval rate | -18% | -28%[8] | -31% | -42+/-6% | -10%[8] |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Security John Lee | 27% | 21%[8] | 20% | 17+/-3% | -3% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Security John Lee | 40%[8] | 59%[8] | 59% | 63+/-4% | +4% |
| Net approval rate | -13% | -38%[8] | -39% | -46+/-6% | -7% |
[7] If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.
[8] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 25.4 marks. Her approval rate is 19%, disapproval rate 75%, giving a net popularity of negative 55 percentage points. All popularity figures have not changed much from two weeks ago.
As for the Secretaries of Departments, the latest support rating of CS Matthew Cheung has dropped significantly by 8.1 marks to 32.1, his approval rate at 18%, disapproval rate 41%, giving a net popularity of negative 23 percentage point, which goes down significantly by 24 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan has dropped significantly by 4.8 marks to 28.0, his approval rate at 19%, disapproval rate 55%, thus a net popularity of negative 35 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 17.7 marks, approval rate 10%, disapproval rate 68%, giving a net popularity of negative 59 percentage points. The ratings of Matthew Cheung, Paul Chan and Teresa Cheng have all registered a new record low since they took office. In terms of popularity rating and net approval rate, Matthew Cheung continues to be the most popular Secretary of Department.
As for the Directors of Bureaux, according to the net approval rates, results reveal that the top position goes to Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan, followed by Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau, Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing, Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury James Lau and Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong. Meanwhile, Secretary for Development Michael Wong, Secretary for the Civil Service Joshua Law, Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip, Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan, Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung, Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah and Secretary for Security John Lee register negative popularities.
Compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of all 13 Directors have gone down. Those of Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau, Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang, Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip, Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan, Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan, Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah, Secretary for the Civil Service Joshua Law and Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury James Lau have changed beyond sampling errors, dropped by 17, 14, 13, 12, 12, 11, 10, 10 and 9 percentage points respectively. Except for those of Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing and Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong, the net approval rates of all other 11 Directors of Bureaux are at their record lows since they took office.
According to HKPOP’s standard, no one falls under the category of “ideal” or “successful” performer. The performance of Sophia Chan, Edward Yau, Wong Kam-sing, Law Chi-kwong, Joshua Law, Frank Chan, Matthew Cheung and Patrick Nip can be labeled as “mediocre”. That of Michael Wong, James Lau and Nicholas Yang can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. John Lee, Lau Kong-wah, Paul Chan and Kevin Yeung fall into the category of “depressing” performer, while Carrie Lam and Teresa Cheng fall into that of “disastrous”.
The following table summarizes the grading of CE Carrie Lam and the principal officials:
| “Ideal”: those with approval rates of over 66%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets[9] |
| “Successful”: those with approval rates of over 50%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets[9] |
| “Mediocre”: those not belonging to other 5 types; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets[9] |
| Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan Siu-chee (38%); Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau Tang-wah (33%); Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing (31%); Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong (30%); Secretary for the Civil Service Joshua Law Chi-kong (21%); Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan Fan (21%); CS Matthew Cheung Kin-chung (18%); Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip Tak-kuen (17%) |
| “Inconspicuous”: those with recognition rates of less than 50%; ranked by their approval rates[9]; the first figure inside bracket is approval rate while the second figure is recognition rate |
| Secretary for Development Michael Wong Wai-lun (20%, 41%); Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury James Henry Lau Jr (19%, 36%); Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang Wei-hsiung (17%, 50%) |
| “Depressing”: those with disapproval rates of over 50%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets[9] |
| Secretary for Security John Lee Ka-chiu (63%); Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah (57%); FS Paul Chan Mo-po (55%); Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung Yun-hung (51%) |
| “Disastrous”: those with disapproval rates of over 66%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets[9] |
| CE Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor (75%); SJ Teresa Cheng Yeuk-wah (68%); |
[9] If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.
Opinion Daily
In 2007, HKPOP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to HKPOP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by HKPOP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by HKPOP.
For the polling items covered in this press release, the earliest previous survey was conducted from 1 to 6 August, 2019 while this survey was conducted from 2 to 4 September, 2019. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
| 4/9/19 | Carrie Lam announces the formal withdrawal of the extradition bill. |
| 3/9/19 | The Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office holds a press conference regarding the anti-extradition bill movement. |
| 2/9/19 | Secondary and tertiary students boycott class on first day of school. |
| 1/9/19 | Anti-extradition bill protesters hold a demonstration near Hong Kong International Airport. |
| 31/8/19 | Anti-extradition bill protesters throw petrol bombs near police headquarters, it turns into a conflict between protestors and the police. |
| 30/8/19 | Several pro-democracy Legislative Councilors and Demosistō members are arrested. |
| 27/8/19 | Carrie Lam says government is responsible for looking all laws in Hong Kong to stop chaos. |
| 25/8/19 | Protest against extradition bill in Tsuen Wan turns into a conflict between protestors and the police, a police officer fires a warning shot into the air. |
| 20/8/19 | Carrie Lam announces the government would set up a platform for dialogue with Hong Kong citizens. |
| 18/8/19 | The Civil Human Rights Front announces that around 1.7 million people participated in the rally against the extradition bill. |
| 15/8/19 | The government announces a series of relief measures, which will cost $19.1 billion. |
| 9/8/19 | Carrie Lam says protests would affect Hong Kong’s economy. |
| 5/8/19 | Rallies in multiple districts in Hong Kong are held during strike resulting in conflicts between protestors and the police. |
Data Analysis
The survey conducted in early September shows that the latest popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 25.4 marks. Her net popularity is negative 55 percentage points. Her popularity figures have not changed much over the past two weeks.
As for the Secretaries of Departments, as compared to one month ago, the latest support rating of CS Matthew Cheung has dropped significantly by 8.1 marks to 32.1. His net popularity stands at negative 23 percentage point, which goes down significantly by 24 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan has also dropped significantly by 4.8 marks to 28.0. His net popularity stands at negative 35 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her latest support rating is 17.7 marks and her net popularity stands at negative 59 percentage points. The ratings of all three Secretaries of Departments have registered their new record lows since they took office.
As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of all 13 Directors have gone down. Except for those of Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing and Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong, the net approval rates of all other 11 Directors of Bureaux are at their record lows since they took office.
