POP releases popularity figures of CE and principal officials (2021-01-12)

January 12, 2021
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials

Detailed Findings

POP releases popularity figures of CE and principal officials

Special Announcement

The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.

Abstract

POP successfully interviewed 1,000 Hong Kong residents by a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in early January. Our survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 29.0 marks. Her net popularity is negative 54 percentage points. Both popularity figures have not changed much from half a month ago. As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 30.7 marks and his net popularity is negative 29 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 33.6 marks and his net popularity is negative 14 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 23.1 marks and her net popularity is negative 52 percentage points. All popularity figures cited above have not changed much in the month past. As for the Directors of Bureaux, all 13 of them continue to register negative net approval rates. Compared to two months ago, only the net approval rate of Sophia Chan has changed beyond sampling error, down by 18 percentage points. The effective response rate of the survey is 58.5%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-7% and that of ratings is +/-2.4 at 95% confidence level.

Contact Information

Date of survey	:	4-8/1/2021
Survey method	:	Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers
Target population	:	Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above
Sample size[1]	:	1,000 (including 492 landline and 508 mobile samples)
Effective response rate	:	58.5%
Sampling error[2]	:	Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-7% and that of ratings not more than +/-2.4 at 95% conf. level
Weighting method	:	Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2019”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong – Key Statistics (2019 Edition)”.

[1] This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.

[2] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.

Latest Figures

Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	19-22/10/20	9-13/11/20	23-26/11/20[3]	7-10/12/20	18-22/12/20	4-8/1/21	Latest change
Sample size	1,020	1,005	1,085	1,009	1,014	1,000	—
Response rate	62.2%	63.9%	74.6%	70.0%	68.7%	58.5%	—
Latest findings	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error	—
Rating of CE Carrie Lam	27.2	30.8[4]	33.5	30.6	29.7	29.0+/-2.1	-0.7
Vote of confidence in CE Carrie Lam	18%	21%	21%	20%	18%	19+/-2%	—
Vote of no confidence in CE Carrie Lam	74%	69%[4]	66%	69%	69%	72+/-3%	+3%
Net approval rate	-56%	-48%[4]	-45%	-50%	-51%	-54+/-5%	-3%

[3] POP conducted a Policy Address instant survey on 25/11/2020 in between two tracking surveys, the results are: CE rating at 26.8 marks, net approval rate at negative 57 percentage points. Because our tracking surveys do not use online samples, and our latest survey started two days before the Policy Address, it is better to compare the latest figures with those collected in our previous survey conducted on 9-13/11/2020.

[4] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Recent popularity figures of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:

Date of survey	3-6/8/20	31/8-4/9/20	5-8/10/20	9-13/11/20	7-10/12/20	4-8/1/21	Latest change
Sample size	503-655	649-689	593-642	608-636	574-657	600-664	—
Response rate	64.4%	58.4%	62.8%	63.9%	70.0%	58.5%	—
Latest findings	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error	—
Rating of CS Matthew Cheung	29.0	28.5	28.7	30.7	29.2	30.7+/-2.4	+1.4
Vote of confidence in CS Matthew Cheung	16%	16%	18%	18%	17%	18+/-3%	+1%
Vote of no confidence in CS Matthew Cheung	55%	54%	50%	50%	51%	48+/-4%	-3%
Net approval rate	-39%	-39%	-32%	-32%	-34%	-29+/-6%	+4%
Rating of FS Paul Chan	37.0	35.5	36.9	39.5	35.4[5]	33.6+/-2.4	-1.7
Vote of confidence in FS Paul Chan	26%	28%	28%	29%	24%	27+/-3%	+3%
Vote of no confidence in FS Paul Chan	46%	46%	44%	38%[5]	44%[5]	42+/-4%	-2%
Net approval rate	-20%	-18%	-16%	-9%	-20%[5]	-14+/-6%	+5%
Rating of SJ Teresa Cheng	22.2	20.8	19.3	21.7	23.3	23.1+/-2.4	-0.1
Vote of confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng	15%[5]	13%	12%	13%	14%	14+/-3%	—
Vote of no confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng	67%	69%	68%	64%	63%	66+/-4%	+2%
Net approval rate	-53%	-56%	-57%	-51%	-49%	-52+/-6%	-2%

[5] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Latest popularity figures of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system sorted by net approval rates^[6] are summarized below:

Date of survey	6-9/7/20	31/8-4/9/20	9-13/11/20	4-8/1/21	Latest change
Sample size	584-634	580-645	588-642	603-628	—
Response rate	52.4%	58.4%	63.9%	58.5%	—
Latest findings	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error	—
Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing	24%	22%	28%[7]	25+/-4%	-3%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing	29%	31%	28%	28+/-4%	—
Net approval rate	-4%	-9%	-<1%[7]	-3+/-6%	-3%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Development Michael Wong	19%	15%[7]	21%[7]	21+/-3%	—
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Development Michael Wong	29%	32%	27%	26+/-4%	-1%
Net approval rate	-9%	-17%[7]	-6%[7]	-5+/-6%	+1%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong	29%	24%	28%	31+/-4%	+3%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong	39%	44%	36%[7]	37+/-4%	—
Net approval rate	-10%	-20%[7]	-9%[7]	-6+/-7%	+3%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui	20%	16%	20%[7]	20+/-3%	-1%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui	25%	27%	21%[7]	26+/-4%	+5%
Net approval rate	-5%	-11%	-1%[7]	-7+/-6%	-6%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Innovation and Technology Alfred Sit	23%[7]	19%	23%	23+/-3%	—
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Innovation and Technology Alfred Sit	30%	35%	26%[7]	33+/-4%	+7%[7]
Net approval rate	-7%	-16%[7]	-3%[7]	-10+/-6%	-7%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Caspar Tsui	19%	17%	20%	19+/-3%	-1%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Caspar Tsui	32%	36%	29%[7]	31+/-4%	+2%
Net approval rate	-13%	-19%	-9%[7]	-13+/-6%	-4%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau	24%	21%	28%[7]	25+/-4%	-4%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau	43%	48%[7]	38%[7]	39+/-4%	—
Net approval rate	-18%[7]	-27%[7]	-10%[7]	-14+/-6%	-4%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan	19%	20%	25%[7]	24+/-3%	-1%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan	43%	45%	38%[7]	39+/-4%	+1%
Net approval rate	-24%	-26%	-13%[7]	-15+/-6%	-2%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Erick Tsang	23%	19%	23%	21+/-3%	-2%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Erick Tsang	41%	50%[7]	43%[7]	40+/-4%	-3%
Net approval rate	-18%	-31%[7]	-20%[7]	-19+/-6%	+1%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan	30%	27%	36%[7]	25+/-4%	-10%[7]
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan	34%	49%[7]	38%[7]	46+/-4%	+8%[7]
Net approval rate	-4%	-21%[7]	-2%[7]	-20+/-7%	-18%[7]
Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Patrick Nip	21%	23%	23%	23+/-3%	—
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Patrick Nip	45%[7]	49%	42%[7]	44+/-4%	+2%
Net approval rate	-24%	-26%	-19%	-21+/-6%	-2%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Security John Lee	26%	21%	24%	25+/-3%	+1%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Security John Lee	59%	63%	55%[7]	55+/-4%	—
Net approval rate	-33%	-42%	-31%[7]	-30+/-7%	—
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung	15%	17%	20%	17+/-3%	-3%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung	62%	60%	59%	60+/-4%	—
Net approval rate	-47%	-43%	-39%	-42+/-6%	-3%

[6] If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.

[7] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 29.0 marks. Her approval rate is 19%, disapproval rate 72%, giving a net popularity of negative 54 percentage points. All popularity figures have not changed much from half a month ago.

As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 30.7 marks. His approval rate is 18%, disapproval rate 48%, giving a net popularity of negative 29 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 33.6 marks, approval rate 27%, disapproval rate 42%, thus a net popularity of negative 14 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 23.1 marks, approval rate 14%, disapproval rate 66%, giving a net popularity of negative 52 percentage points. All popularity figures cited above have not changed much from a month ago.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, all 13 of them register negative net approval rates. The top position goes to Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing, followed by Secretary for Development Michael Wong, Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong, Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui, Secretary for Innovation and Technology Alfred Sit, Secretary for Home Affairs Caspar Tsui, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau, Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Erick Tsang, Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan, Secretary for the Civil Service Patrick Nip, Secretary for Security John Lee and Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung. Compared to two months ago, the net approval rates of 3 Directorshave gone up, 9 have gone down, while 1 remains unchanged. Only that of Sophia Chan has changed beyond sampling error, down by 18 percentage points.

According to POP’s standard, no one falls under the category of “ideal” or “successful” performer. The performance of Law Chi-kwong, Paul Chan, Sophia Chan, Wong Kam-sing, Edward Yau, Frank Chan, Patrick Nip, Alfred Sit, Erick Tsang, Caspar Tsui and Matthew Cheung can be labeled as “mediocre”. That of Michael Wong and Christopher Hui can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. Teresa Cheng, Kevin Yeung and John Lee fall into the category of “depressing” performer, while Carrie Lam falls into that of “disastrous”.

The following table summarizes the grading of CE Carrie Lam and the principal officials:

“Ideal”: those with approval rates of over 66%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets[8]

Nil

“Successful”: those with approval rates of over 50%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets[8]

Nil

“Mediocre”: those not belonging to other 5 types; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets[8]

Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong (31%) FS Paul Chan (27%) Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan (25%) Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing (25%) Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau (25%) Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan (24%) Secretary for the Civil Service Patrick Nip (23%) Secretary for Innovation and Technology Alfred Sit (23%) Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Erick Tsang (21%) Secretary for Home Affairs Caspar Tsui (19%) CS Matthew Cheung (18%)

“Inconspicuous”: those with recognition rates of less than 50% ranked by their approval rates[8] the first figure inside bracket is approval rate while the second figure is recognition rate

Secretary for Development Michael Wong (21%, 47%) Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui (20%, 46%)

“Depressing”: those with disapproval rates of over 50% ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets[8]

SJ Teresa Cheng (66%) Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung (60%) Secretary for Security John Lee (55%)

“Disastrous”: those with disapproval rates of over 66% ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets[8]

CE Carrie Lam (72%)

[8] If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.

Opinion Daily

In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.

For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 9 to 13 November, 2020 while this survey was conducted from 4 to 8 January, 2021. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

6/1/21	Police arrests 53 democrats involved in the pro-democracy primaries who allegedly violated the national security law.
5/1/21	Geoffrey Ma says details and justifications are needed to call for judicial reform.
4/1/21	The government announces extension of anti-epidemic measures. Face-to-face classes are suspended in kindergartens, primary and secondary schools until the Lunar New Year holidays.
2/1/21	The government does not rule out mandatory use of the “LeaveHomeSafe” app.
2/1/21	The government expects to provide vaccinations to the public in February at the earliest.
31/12/20	The Court of Final Appeal grants leave to appeal to the Department of Justice. Jimmy Lai is remanded in custody.
30/12/20	Ten among the 12 Hong Kong people case are sentenced to 7 months to 3 years in prison, while two minors are transferred to Hong Kong.
28/12/20	Mandatory testing is ordered after coronavirus is detected in the sewage from a building.
25/12/20	Jimmy Lai is granted bail, but barred from leaving home, giving interviews and publishing articles.
23/12/20	The government sets up indemnity fund for vaccine and lets citizens choose which type of vaccine to take.
21/12/20	New strains of COVID-19 virus are found in the UK. The Hong Kong government bans passenger flights from the UK.
17/12/20	The government launches the fourth round of the Anti-epidemic Fund.
12/12/20	Jimmy Lai is additionally charged with “collusion with a foreign country or with external elements to endanger national security”.
8/12/20	The government tightens anti-epidemic measures again and empower authorities to impose lockdown and mandatory testing.
5/12/20	Designated judge for national security cases Victor So receives death threat.
3/12/20	Jimmy Lai is denied bail and remanded in custody.
2/12/20	Former Demosistō member Joshua Wong, Ivan Lam and Agnes Chow are sentenced to 7 to 13.5 months in prison.
30/11/20	The government tightens anti-epidemic measures and sets up a hotline for reporting violations.
26/11/20	The Education Bureau introduces reforms to liberal studies.
25/11/20	Carrie Lam delivers her Policy Address.
24/11/20	The government tightens anti-epidemic measures and orders public venues to display QR codes for “Leave Home Safe”.
21/11/20	Police arrests 3 people including an online radio host who allegedly violated the national security law by providing financial assistance to secession.
19/11/20	The High Court rules that police officers not displaying their identification numbers violated the Bill of Rights.
14/11/20	The government tightens anti-epidemic measures and imposes mandatory testing.
11/11/20	NPCSC disqualifies 4 democrats in LegCo.

Data Analysis

The latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 29.0 marks. Her net popularity is negative 54 percentage points. Both popularity figures have not changed much from half a month ago.

As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 30.7 marks and his net popularity is negative 29 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 33.6 marks and his net popularity is negative 14 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 23.1 marks and her net popularity is negative 52 percentage points. All popularity figures cited above have not changed much in the month past.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, all 13 of them continue to register negative net approval rates. Compared to two months ago, only the net approval rate of Sophia Chan has changed beyond sampling error, down by 18 percentage points.