February 2, 2021
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials
Detailed Findings
POP releases popularity of cross-strait political figures
Special Announcement
The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.
Abstract
POP successfully interviewed 1,000 and 1,011 Hong Kong residents in a two-stage random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in January. The latest survey revealed that, among the ten Mainland China and Taiwan political figures most well-known to Hong Kong people, Zhu Rongji ranked first in terms of popularity rating, attaining 67.7 marks. The 2nd to 4th ranks went to Wen Jiabao, Hu Jintao and Li Keqiang. Tsai Ing-wen, Xi Jinping, Ma Ying-jeou and Jiang Zemin occupied the 5th to 8th ranks. The 9th to 10th ranks fell to Han Kuo-yu and Chen Shui-bian. Compared to the previous survey, the ratings of Zhu Rongji, Wen Jiabao, Hu Jintao, Li Keqiang, Xi Jinping, Ma Ying-jeou, Han Kuo-yu and Chen Shui-bian have increased significantly, while the rating of Tsai Ing-wen has dropped significantly. The rating of Chen Shui-Bian has reached a record high since 2005. Wang Qishan and Su Tseng-chang obtained support ratings of 53.3 and 40.2 marks respectively, but they were dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates. The effective response rate of the rating survey is 67.2%. The maximum sampling error of ratings is +/-3.4 at 95% confidence level.
Contact Information
| Naming stage | Rating stage | ||
| Date of survey | : | 4-8/1/2021 | 18-22/1/2021 |
| Sample size[1] | : | 1,000 (including 492 landline and 508 mobile samples) | 1,011 (including 509 landline and 502 mobile samples) |
| Effective response rate | : | 58.5% | 67.2% |
| Survey method | : | Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers | |
| Target population | : | Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above | |
| Sampling error[2] | : | Sampling error of ratings not more than +/-3.4 at 95% conf. level | |
| Weighting method | : | Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2019”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong – Key Statistics (2019 Edition)”. | |
[1]This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.
[2]All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
Latest Figures
In the naming survey, respondents could name, unprompted, up to 10 contemporary leaders in China or Taiwan whom they knew best. The top 12 nominees then entered the rating survey. In the rating survey, respondents were asked to rate individual political figures using a 0-100 scale, where 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom ones in terms of recognition rate were dropped; the remaining 10 were then ranked according to their support ratings to become the top 10 cross-strait political figures. Recent ratings of the top 10 cross-strait political figures are summarized below, in descending order of support ratings[3]:
| Date of survey | 17-19/7/19 | 14-15/1/20 | 22-24/7/20 | 18-22/1/21 | Latest change | |
| Sample size[4] | 557-690 | 508 | 510 | 541-649 | — | |
| Response rate | 59.8% | 57.7% | 56.5% | 67.2% | — | |
| Latest findings[5] | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | Recognition rate | — |
| Zhu Rongji | 65.3{1} | 59.0{1}[6] | 61.6{1} | 67.7+/-2.3{1} | 80.1% | +6.1[6] |
| Wen Jiabao | 57.2{2} | 51.7{3}[6] | 54.4{3} | 61.9+/-2.2{2} | 83.6% | +7.6[6] |
| Hu Jintao | 53.0{4}[6] | 48.4{4}[6] | 51.1{4} | 58.0+/-2.2{3} | 83.7% | +6.9[6] |
| Li Keqiang | 50.5{5}[6] | 44.6{6}[6] | 46.4{5} | 54.5+/-2.6{4} | 83.4% | +8.1[6] |
| Tsai Ing-wen | 47.4{6}[6] | 57.6{2}[6] | 57.6{2} | 52.8+/-2.8{5} | 91.3% | -4.8[6] |
| Xi Jinping | 47.1{7}[6] | 39.9{7}[6] | 40.7{8} | 50.9+/-3.1{6} | 94.6% | +10.2[6] |
| Ma Ying-jeou | 53.2{3}[6] | 44.8{5}[6] | 45.9{7} | 50.7+/-2.4{7} | 84.1% | +4.7[6] |
| Jiang Zemin | 43.8{8} | 38.3{8}[6] | 46.2{6} | 49.1+/-2.4{8} | 80.8% | +2.9 |
| Han Kuo-yu | 40.1[7] | 28.6{9}[6] | 24.6{9} | 33.5+/-2.8{9} | 64.9% | +8.9[6] |
| Chen Shui-bian | 22.8{10} | 22.9{10} | 23.1{10} | 27.3+/-2.0{10} | 85.5% | +4.1[6] |
| Wang Qishan | — | — | — | 53.3+/-3.4[7] | 56.5% | — |
| Su Tseng-chang | — | — | — | 40.2+/-2.8[7] | 49.4% | — |
| Lee Teng-hui | 38.2{9} | 37.0[7] | 36.7[7] | — | — | — |
| Han Zheng | 41.9[7] | — | 33.2[7] | — | — | — |
| Soong Chu-yu | — | 32.0[7] | — | — | — | — |
| Li Peng | 38.5{9} | — | — | — | — | — |
[3]If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.
[4]Before March 2020, weighted count was used to report subsample size. Starting from March 2020, raw count was used instead.
[5]Numbers in curly brackets { } indicate the rankings.
[6]The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
[7]Recognition rates were comparatively low in the rating survey.
The latest survey revealed that, among the ten Mainland China and Taiwan political figures most well-known to Hong Kong people, Zhu Rongji ranked first in terms of popularity rating, attaining 67.7 marks. The 2nd to 4th ranks went to Wen Jiabao, Hu Jintao and Li Keqiang with scores of 61.9, 58.0 and 54.5 marks respectively. Tsai Ing-wen, Xi Jinping, Ma Ying-jeou and Jiang Zemin occupied the 5th to 8th ranks with 52.8, 50.9, 50.7 and 49.1 marks correspondingly. The 9th to 10th ranks fell to Han Kuo-yu and Chen Shui-bian with respective scores of 33.5 and 27.3 marks. Compared to the previous survey, the rating of Zhu Rongji, Wen Jiabao, Hu Jintao, Li Keqiang, Xi Jinping, Ma Ying-jeou, Han Kuo-yu and Chen Shui-bian has increased significantly, while the rating of Tsai Ing-wen has dropped significantly. The rating of Chen Shui-Bian has reached a record high since 2005. Wang Qishan and Su Tseng-chang obtained support ratings of 53.3 and 40.2 marks respectively, but they were dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates.
It should be noted that our list of “top 10 cross-strait political figures” only includes those best known to the Hong Kong public, ranked according to their support ratings. Other political figures may have very high or low support ratings, but they are excluded from the list because they are relatively less well-known.
Opinion Daily
In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.
For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 22 to 24 July, 2020 while this survey was conducted from 18 to 21 January, 2021. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
| 17/11/20 | Carrie Lam and Zhang Xiaoming deliver speech at the Basic Law 30th Anniversary Legal Summit. |
| 11/11/20 | NPCSC disqualifies 4 democrats in LegCo. |
| 9/11/20 | Sources say NPCSC will disqualify democrats in LegCo. |
| 6/11/20 | Vice-Premier of the State Council Han Zheng meets Carrie Lam. |
| 1/11/20 | Police arrests 6 democrats who allegedly violated the LegCo Powers and Privileges Ordinance. |
| 29/10/20 | The fifth plenary session of the Communist Party of China Central Committee passes the 15th Five-Year Plan. |
| 23/10/20 | Xi Jinping attends anniversary event of the Korean War and delivers a speech. |
| 14/10/20 | Xi Jinping delivers a speech in Shenzhen. |
| 13/10/20 | Xi Jinping attends anniversary celebration of the establishment of the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone. |
| 12/10/20 | Carrie Lam postpones Policy Address. |
| 10/10/20 | Police arrests 9 people on suspicion of helping the 12 Hong Kong people now being detained in Shenzhen flee Hong Kong. |
| 30/9/20 | Luo Huining, Tung Chee-hwa and principal officials of Hong Kong celebrates the 71st anniversary of the founding of the PRC. |
| 12/9/20 | Twelve Hong Kong youngsters have been detained in Shenzhen for over two weeks. Their family members hold a press conference. |
| 27/8/20 | China Coast Guard intercepted a speedboat to Taiwan on August 23 and arrested 12 young Hong Kong people. |
| 11/8/20 | The NPCSC decides that the current Legislative Council shall continue to discharge duties for no less than one year. |
| 10/8/20 | Police searches Next Media and arrests Jimmy Lai, Agnes Chow and other people under national security law. |
| 9/8/20 | Media continues to report on US sanction on 11 Chinese or Hong Kong government officials. |
| 8/8/20 | The Hong Kong government issues statement condemning US sanction on 11 Chinese or Hong Kong government officials. |
| 2/8/20 | Media continues to report on the arrival of the first team from the National Health Commission. |
Data Analysis
The latest survey revealed that, among the ten Mainland China and Taiwan political figures most well-known to Hong Kong people, Zhu Rongji ranked first in terms of popularity rating, attaining 67.7 marks. The 2nd to 4th ranks went to Wen Jiabao, Hu Jintao and Li Keqiang. Tsai Ing-wen, Xi Jinping, Ma Ying-jeou and Jiang Zemin occupied the 5th to 8th ranks. The 9th to 10th ranks fell to Han Kuo-yu and Chen Shui-bian. Compared to the previous survey, the rating of Zhu Rongji, Wen Jiabao, Hu Jintao, Li Keqiang, Xi Jinping, Ma Ying-jeou, Han Kuo-yu and Chen Shui-bian has increased significantly, while the rating of Tsai Ing-wen has dropped significantly. The rating of Chen Shui-Bian has reached a record high since 2005. Wang Qishan and Su Tseng-chang obtained support ratings of 53.3 and 40.2 marks respectively, but they were dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates.
