POP releases popularities of trust and confidence indicators as well as rankings of people’s most familiar political figures (2021-03-09)

March 9, 2021
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials

Detailed Findings

 

POP releases the trust and confidence indicators as well as
rankings of people’s most familiar political figures

Special Announcement

The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.

Abstract

POP successfully interviewed 1,000 Hong Kong residents by random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in late February. Our survey shows that regarding people’s trust in governments, 36% of the respondents trust the HKSAR Government, 41% trust the Beijing Central Government, and 30% trust the Taiwan Government. The net trust values are negative 14, negative 2 and negative 9 percentage points respectively. Compared to half a year ago, net trust in the Beijing Central Government has increased sharply by 27 percentage points, while that in the Taiwan Government has significantly decreased by 11 percentage points. As for the confidence indicators, 62% expressed confidence in the future of China while net confidence stands at positive 34 percentage points. On the other hand, 48% and 45% expressed confidence in the future of Hong Kong and in “one country, two systems” respectively. All three confidence indictors have surged by 21 to 39 percentage points compared to half a year ago. Regarding people’s most familiar political figures, survey results show that the 10 most frequently named political figures were Carrie Lam, Paul Chan, Leung Chun-ying, Regina Ip, Tung Chee-hwa, Donald Tsang, Teresa Cheng, Matthew Cheung, Martin Lee and Starry Lee, followed by Joshua Wong, Sophia Chan, Tam Yiu-chung, Leung Kwok-hung, Jasper Tsang, Lee Cheuk-yan, John Tsang, Anson Chan, Henry Tang and Agnes Chow who rank from eleventh to twentieth. Among them, the naming percentages for Carrie Lam, Paul Chan, Teresa Cheng, Sophia Chan and Agnes Chow have all registered historical high, whereas the naming percentage for Anson Chan has registered historical low. Compared to half a year ago, 8 political figures remain in the top 10 whilst Joshua Wong and Alvin Yeung have fallen out of the list and are replaced by Paul Chan and Teresa Cheung. Based on the results of the past 10 surveys, Carrie Lam has the highest overall rank, followed by Leung Chun-ying, Donald Tsang and Tung Chee-hwa. The effective response rate of the survey is 57.2%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-8% and that of ratings is +/-0.1 at 95% confidence level.

Contact Information

Date of survey	:	24-26/2/2021
Survey method	:	Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers
Target population	:	Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above
Sample size[1]	:	1,000 (including 500 landline and 500 mobile samples)
Effective response rate	:	57.2%
Sampling error[2]	:	Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-8% and that of ratings not more than +/-0.1 at 95% conf. level
Weighting method	:	Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2019”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong – Key Statistics (2019 Edition)”.

[1] This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.

[2] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.

Trust and Confidence Indicators

Recent popularity figures of SAR, Beijing Central and Taiwan Governments and people’s confidence in the future as well as “one country, two systems” are summarized below:

Date of survey	19-22/10/20	23-26/11/20	18-22/12/20	18-22/1/21	24-26/2/21	Latest change
Sample size	637	529	623	510	519	—
Response rate	62.2%	74.6%	68.7%	67.2%	57.2%	—
Latest findings	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error	—
Trust in HKSAR Government[3]	26%	30%	29%	28%	36+/-4%	+8%[4]
Distrust in HKSAR Government[3]	61%[4]	49%[4]	56%[4]	51%	50+/-4%	-1%
Net trust	-35%	-20%[4]	-27%	-23%	-14+/-8%	+9%
Mean value[3]	2.3	2.5[4]	2.4	2.5	2.6+/-0.1	+0.1

 

Date of survey	28/2-5/3/19	15-20/8/19	17-19/2/20	17-20/8/20	24-26/2/21	Latest change
Sample size	613-674	603-633	575-612	597-644	575-620	—
Response rate	72.2%	68.5%	64.6%	60.9%	57.2%	—
Latest findings	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error	—
Trust in Beijing Government[3]	33%[4]	23%[4]	20%	28%[4]	41+/-4%	+12%[4]
Distrust in Beijing Government[3]	48%[4]	63%[4]	63%	58%	43+/-4%	-15%[4]
Net trust	-15%[4]	-40%[4]	-43%	-29%[4]	-2+/-7%	+27%[4]
Mean value[3]	2.7[4]	2.2[4]	2.1	2.4[4]	2.9+/-0.1	+0.5[4]
Trust in Taiwan Government[3]	23%	25%	38%[4]	35%	30+/-4%	-5%
Distrust in Taiwan Government[3]	40%	37%	28%[4]	34%[4]	39+/-4%	+5%
Net trust	-17%	-12%	10%[4]	2%	-9+/-7%	-11%[4]
Mean value[3]	2.6	2.7	3.1[4]	2.9[4]	2.7+/-0.1	-0.2[4]
Confidence in HK’s future	39%[4]	40%	26%[4]	38%[4]	48+/-4%	+10%[4]
No-confidence in HK’s future	55%[4]	52%	70%[4]	57%[4]	46+/-4%	-11%[4]
Net confidence	-16%[4]	-12%	-44%[4]	-19%[4]	3+/-8%	+21%[4]
Confidence in China’s future	62%	42%[4]	39%	43%	62+/-4%	+19%[4]
No-confidence in China’s future	32%	50%[4]	52%	48%	28+/-4%	-20%[4]
Net confidence	30%	-8%[4]	-13%	-4%	34+/-7%	+39%[4]
Confidence in “one country, two systems”	41%	34%[4]	27%[4]	35%[4]	45+/-4%	+10%[4]
No-confidence in “one country, two systems”	55%[4]	62%[4]	68%[4]	61%[4]	50+/-4%	-11%[4]
Net confidence	-14%	-28%[4]	-41%[4]	-26%[4]	-5+/-8%	+22%[4]

[3] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.

[4] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Regarding people’s trust in governments, 36% of the respondents trust the HKSAR Government, 41% trust the Beijing Central Government, and 30% trust the Taiwan Government. The net trust values are negative 14, negative 2 and negative 9 percentage points, while the mean scores are 2.6, 2.9 and 2.7 respectively, meaning trust in the HKSAR Government and Taiwan Government are between “quite distrust” and “half-half” in general whilst trust in the Beijing Central Government is close to “half-half” in general. Compared to half a year ago, net trust in the Beijing Central Government has increased sharply by 27 percentage points, while that in the Taiwan Government has significantly decreased by 11 percentage points.

As for the confidence indicators, 62% expressed confidence in the future of China while net confidence stands at positive 34 percentage points. On the other hand, 48% and 45% expressed confidence in the future of Hong Kong and in “one country, two systems” respectively. All three confidence indictors have surged by 21 to 39 percentage points compared to half a year ago.

People’s Most Familiar Political Figures

As for people’s most familiar political figures, in the survey, respondents could name, unprompted, up to 10 Hong Kong political figures currently alive whom they knew best. Results of the top 20 figures in the latest survey are summarized below^[5]:

Date of survey	29/1-8/2/19		1-6/8/19		3-6/2/20		3-6/8/2020		24-26/2/21
Sample size	537		560		1,001		647		500
Response rate	63.0%		62.8%		77.6%		64.4%		57.2%
Latest findings	%	Rank	%	Rank	%	Rank	%	Rank	%	Rank
Carrie Lam	35%	1	31%	1	31%	1	61%	1	61+/-4%	1
Paul Chan	11%	10	8%	19	9%	14	11%	11	32+/-4%	2
Leung Chun-ying	26%	4	25%	3	21%	4	22%	3	23+/-4%	3
Regina Ip	13%	7	16%	6	14%	5	17%	6	18+/-3%	4
Tung Chee-hwa	29%	3	27%	2	25%	3	18%	5	17+/-3%	5
Donald Tsang	33%	2	21%	4	27%	2	13%	8	17+/-3%	6
Teresa Cheng	3%	30	6%	23	6%	21	11%	12	16+/-3%	7
Matthew Cheung	6%	15	9%	15	8%	17	23%	2	14+/-3%	8
Martin Lee	14%	5	15%	8	13%	6	12%	10	14+/-3%	9
Starry Lee	6%	14	9%	16	9%	13	12%	9	11+/-3%	10
Joshua Wong	4%	21	7%	21	8%	18	19%	4	10+/-3%	11
Sophia Chan	2%	45	1%	—	7%	19	7%	19	9+/-3%	12
Tam Yiu-chung	2%	39	2%	—	1%	—	10%	13	9+/-3%	13
Leung Kwok-hung	12%	8	8%	17	10%	10	8%	16	8+/-3%	14
Jasper Tsang	8%	12	12%	12	12%	9	9%	14	8+/-2%	15
Lee Cheuk-yan	7%	13	3%	34	2%	50	3%	48	8+/-2%	16
John Tsang	14%	6	11%	13	12%	8	5%	29	7+/-2%	17
Anson Chan	11%	9	20%	5	12%	7	9%	15	6+/-2%	18
Henry Tang	9%	11	5%	25	8%	15	5%	31	6+/-2%	19
Agnes Chow	—	—	1%	—	1%	—	3%	41	6+/-2%	20

[5] If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered. For each survey, those who ranked beyond the 50th would be considered not on the list.

Survey results show that the 10 most frequently named political figures were Carrie Lam, Paul Chan, Leung Chun-ying, Regina Ip, Tung Chee-hwa, Donald Tsang, Teresa Cheng, Matthew Cheung, Martin Lee and Starry Lee, followed by Joshua Wong, Sophia Chan, Tam Yiu-chung, Leung Kwok-hung, Jasper Tsang, Lee Cheuk-yan, John Tsang, Anson Chan, Henry Tang and Agnes Chow who rank from eleventh to twentieth. Among them, the naming percentages for Carrie Lam, Paul Chan, Teresa Cheng, Sophia Chan and Agnes Chow have all registered historical high, whereas the naming percentages for Anson Chan has registered historical low, and that for Tung Chee-hwa has also registered record low since 2016.

The purpose of the “people’s most familiar political figures” survey is to show the changing political ecology by studying the ups and downs of people’s familiarity with these figures over time. Compared to half a year ago, regardless of their popularities, 8 political figures remain in the top 10. Joshua Wong and Alvin Yeung have fallen out of the list and are replaced by Paul Chan and Teresa Cheung.

It should be noted, however, that our ranking of “people’s most familiar political figures” is based on our surveys which requested respondents to name local political figures without prompting. This kind of familiarity measurement is not the same as prompted ratings. In other words, those high on the list may not be the most supported figures, while those lower may have a different ranking if we use a prompting method. However, those who scored best in unprompted surveys are no doubt the most well-known political figures in Hong Kong.

Herewith some of the results of our “people’s most familiar political figures” surveys accumulated over past 10 surveys spanning over about five years:

Overall rank	3-5/5/16──3-6/8/20		24-27/10/16──24-26/2/21
	Political figures	Average rank for 10 surveys[6]	Political figures	Average rank for 10 surveys[6]
1	Carrie Lam	1.8	Carrie Lam	1.6
2	Leung Chun-ying	2.5	Leung Chun-ying	2.7
3	Donald Tsang	4.2	Donald Tsang	4.0
4	Tung Chee-hwa	5.0	Tung Chee-hwa	4.6
5	Regina Ip	6.2	Regina Ip	6.0
6	Leung Kwok-hung	7.5	Martin Lee	8.7[7]
7	Jasper Tsang	8.7	Leung Kwok-hung	8.7[7]
8	Martin Lee	9.3	Jasper Tsang	9.8
9	John Tsang	9.4	John Tsang	10.4
10	Anson Chan	11.5	Anson Chan	12.1
11	Starry Lee	13.6	Starry Lee	12.5
12	Paul Chan	17.1	Paul Chan	15.4
13	Alvin Yeung	18.3[7]	Alvin Yeung	18.2
14	Raymond Wong	18.3[7]	Henry Tang	18.4
15	Henry Tang	18.4	Matthew Cheung	18.9
16	Michael Tien	20.7	Joshua Wong	21.3
17	Matthew Cheung	21.4	Michael Tien	21.7
18	Joshua Wong	23.6	Raymond Wong	22.4
19	Rita Fan	23.7[7]	Tanya Chan	25.2
20	James Tien	23.7[7]	Rita Fan	26.7[7]
20	—	—	James Tien	26.7[7]

[6] For each survey, those who ranked beyond the 50th and those not on the list are counted as 50th in our calculation of average ranks.

[7] The average ranks for 10 surveys are identical.

Based on the results of the past 10 surveys, Carrie Lam has the highest overall rank, followed by Leung Chun-ying, Donald Tsang and Tung Chee-hwa, while Regina Ip, Martin Lee, Leung Kwok-hung, Jasper Tsang, John Tsang and Anson Chan occupied the 5th to 10th ranks overall.

Opinion Daily

In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.

For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 3 to 6 August, 2020 while this survey was conducted from 24 to 26 February, 2021. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

25/2/21	The government will distribute e-vouchers for spending worth $5,000 in batches.
24/2/21	Financial Secretary Paul Chan delivers the Budget.
23/2/21	The government proposes amendments to laws to regulate oath-taking by public officers, compiling a negative list of behaviours, violators of which will be disqualified.
22/2/21	Xia Baolong says the Central Government will change the electoral system in Hong Kong to make sure it will be “patriots ruling Hong Kong”.
19/2/21	The government releases the Governance and Management of RTHK Review Report, and announces that Li Pak-chuen will replace Leung Ka-wing as the Director of Broadcasting.
18/2/21	Sinovac vaccines arrive in Hong Kong. The government announces the vaccination plan.
16/2/21	The government lifts the dine-in ban during nighttime, but customers will need to use the “LeaveHomeSafe” app or register.
9/2/21	The Court of Final Appeal sets aside the High Court’s decision to grant bail to Jimmy Lai.
1/2/21	The government locks down multiple areas for compulsory testing and lowers the threshold of imposing lockdowns.
29/1/21	The British government announces details of migration using BNO visa; the Chinese and Hong Kong governments announce they will no longer recognise BNO passports.
27/1/21	Carrie Lam reports to Xi Jinping on her work via video conferencing.
13/1/21	Brazil authority announces that the general efficacy of Sinovac vaccine is 50.4%.
6/1/21	Police arrests 53 democrats involved in the pro-democracy primaries who allegedly violated the national security law.
5/1/21	Geoffrey Ma says details and justifications are needed to call for judicial reform.
4/1/21	The government announces extension of anti-epidemic measures. Face-to-face classes are suspended in kindergartens, primary and secondary schools until the Lunar New Year holidays.
31/12/20	The Court of Final Appeal grants leave to appeal to the Department of Justice. Jimmy Lai is remanded in custody.
30/12/20	Ten among the 12 Hong Kong people case are sentenced to 7 months to 3 years in prison, while two minors are transferred to Hong Kong.
28/12/20	Mandatory testing is ordered after coronavirus is detected in the sewage from a building.
25/12/20	Jimmy Lai is granted bail, but barred from leaving home, giving interviews and publishing articles.
23/12/20	The government sets up indemnity fund for vaccine and lets citizens choose which type of vaccine to take.
21/12/20	New strains of COVID-19 virus are found in the UK. The Hong Kong government bans passenger flights from the UK.
17/12/20	The government launches the fourth round of the Anti-epidemic Fund.
12/12/20	Jimmy Lai is additionally charged with “collusion with a foreign country or with external elements to endanger national security”.
8/12/20	The government tightens anti-epidemic measures again and empower authorities to impose lockdown and mandatory testing.
5/12/20	Designated judge for national security cases Victor So receives death threat.
3/12/20	Jimmy Lai is denied bail and remanded in custody.
2/12/20	Former Demosistō member Joshua Wong, Ivan Lam and Agnes Chow are sentenced to 7 to 13.5 months in prison.
30/11/20	The government tightens anti-epidemic measures and sets up a hotline for reporting violations.
26/11/20	The Education Bureau introduces reforms to liberal studies.
25/11/20	Carrie Lam delivers her Policy Address.
24/11/20	The government tightens anti-epidemic measures and orders public venues to display QR codes for “Leave Home Safe”.
21/11/20	Police arrests 3 people including an online radio host who allegedly violated the national security law by providing financial assistance to secession.
19/11/20	The High Court rules that police officers not displaying their identification numbers violated the Bill of Rights.
17/11/20	Carrie Lam and Zhang Xiaoming deliver speech at the Basic Law 30th Anniversary Legal Summit.
14/11/20	The government tightens anti-epidemic measures and imposes mandatory testing.
11/11/20	NPCSC disqualifies 4 democrats in LegCo.
6/11/20	Vice-Premier of the State Council Han Zheng meets Carrie Lam.
1/11/20	Police arrests 6 democrats who allegedly violated the LegCo Powers and Privileges Ordinance.
31/10/20	Seven defendants accused of rioting on 31 August 2019 are found not guilty.
29/10/20	The fifth plenary session of the Communist Party of China Central Committee passes the 15th Five-Year Plan.
21/10/20	Cathay Pacific announces massive lay-offs and closes Cathay Dragon.
12/10/20	Carrie Lam postpones Policy Address.
10/10/20	Police arrests 9 people on suspicion of helping the 12 Hong Kong people now being detained in Shenzhen flee Hong Kong.
6/10/20	The Education Bureau deregisters a primary school teacher for professional misconduct.
1/10/20	Police arrests at least 86 protesters in various districts including Causeway Bay.
30/9/20	Luo Huining, Tung Chee-hwa and principal officials of Hong Kong celebrates the 71st anniversary of the founding of the PRC.
29/9/20	Democrats announce survey results on whether Legislative Councillors should stay or go.
22/9/20	Police changes the definition of “media representatives” under the Police General Orders.
21/9/20	Stock price of HSBC Holdings hits 25-year low.
14/9/20	The Universal Community Testing Programme ends with 1.78 million people participated and 32 new cases found.
11/9/20	The jury in the Coroner’s Court returns an open verdict in the death of Chan Yin-lam.
10/9/20	Police arrests 15 people on suspicion of defrauding and money laundering by trading Next Digital shares.
27/8/20	China Coast Guard intercepted a speedboat to Taiwan on August 23 and arrested 12 young Hong Kong people.
26/8/20	Police arrests 13 people who were not “people in white” for rioting in the 7.21 incident.
19/8/20	Unemployment rate in Hong Kong rises to 6.1%.
18/8/20	The government announces the second round of Employment Support Scheme.
11/8/20	The NPCSC decides that the current Legislative Council shall continue to discharge duties for no less than one year.
10/8/20	Police searches Next Media and arrests Jimmy Lai, Agnes Chow and other people under national security law.
8/8/20	The Hong Kong government issues statement condemning US sanction on 11 Chinese or Hong Kong government officials.
6/8/20	The US expands the “Clean Network” to further limit Chinese technology firms.

Data Analysis

Our survey shows that regarding people’s trust in governments, 36% of the respondents trust the HKSAR Government, 41% trust the Beijing Central Government, and 30% trust the Taiwan Government. The net trust values are negative 14, negative 2 and negative 9 percentage points respectively. Compared to half a year ago, net trust in the Beijing Central Government has increased sharply by 27 percentage points, while that in the Taiwan Government has significantly decreased by 11 percentage points. As for the confidence indicators, 62% expressed confidence in the future of China while net confidence stands at positive 34 percentage points. On the other hand, 48% and 45% expressed confidence in the future of Hong Kong and in “one country, two systems” respectively. All three confidence indictors have surged by 21 to 39 percentage points compared to half a year ago.

Regarding people’s most familiar political figures, survey results show that the 10 most frequently named political figures were Carrie Lam, Paul Chan, Leung Chun-ying, Regina Ip, Tung Chee-hwa, Donald Tsang, Teresa Cheng, Matthew Cheung, Martin Lee and Starry Lee, followed by Joshua Wong, Sophia Chan, Tam Yiu-chung, Leung Kwok-hung, Jasper Tsang, Lee Cheuk-yan, John Tsang, Anson Chan, Henry Tang and Agnes Chow who rank from eleventh to twentieth. Among them, the naming percentages for Carrie Lam, Paul Chan, Teresa Cheng, Sophia Chan and Agnes Chow have all registered historical high, whereas the naming percentage for Anson Chan has registered historical low. Compared to half a year ago, 8 political figures remain in the top 10 whilst Joshua Wong and Alvin Yeung have fallen out of the list and are replaced by Paul Chan and Teresa Cheung. Based on the results of the past 10 surveys, Carrie Lam has the highest overall rank, followed by Leung Chun-ying, Donald Tsang and Tung Chee-hwa.