POP releases popularities of CE and principal officials (2021-05-11) - HKPORI

May 11, 2021
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials

Press Conference Live

POP releases popularities of CE and principal officials

Special Announcement

The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.

Abstract

POP successfully interviewed 1,013 Hong Kong residents by a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in early May. Our survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is 30.4 marks, with 42% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her net popularity stands at negative 54 percentage points. All popularity figures mentioned above have not changed much from half a month ago. As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 30.3 marks. His net popularity is negative 30 percentage points, registering a significant decrease of 10 percentage points from a month ago. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 35.1 His net popularity is negative 18 percentage points. These figures have not changed much from a month ago. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 25.0 marks, her net popularity is negative 44 percentage points, also not changed much from a month ago. As for the Directors of Bureaux, except for Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing who has got a net approval rate of positive 2 percentage points, everyone else register negative net approval rates. Compared to two months ago, the net approval rates of 5 Directors have gone up, 7 have gone down, while 1 remains unchanged, but only the net approval rate of Frank Chan has significantly increased, registering an increase of 13 percentage points. The effective response rate of the survey is 55.5%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-7% and that of ratings is +/-2.3 at 95% confidence level.

Contact Information

Date of survey	:	3-7/5/2021
Survey method	:	Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers
Target population	:	Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above
Sample size^[1]	:	1,013 (including 506 landline and 507 mobile samples)
Effective response rate	:	55.5%
Sampling error^[2]	:	Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-7% and that of ratings not more than +/-2.3 at 95% conf. level
Weighting method	:	Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2020”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong – Key Statistics (2020 Edition)”.

[1] This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.

[2] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.

Popularity of CE and Principal Officials

Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	24-26/2/21	8-12/3/21	22-25/3/21	7-9/4/21	19-22/4/21	*3-7/5/21*	*Latest change*
Sample size	1,000	1,001	1,010	1,003	1,004	*1,013*	—
Response rate	57.2%	47.6%	56.8%	50.1%	54.5%	*55.5%*	—
Latest findings	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	*Finding & error*	—
Rating of CE Carrie Lam	33.9	29.5^[3]	32.8^[3]	30.7	32.0	*30.4+/-2.0*	*-1.6*
Vote of confidence in CE Carrie Lam	23%^[3]	18%^[3]	19%	20%	18%	*17+/-2%*	*-1%*
Vote of no confidence in CE Carrie Lam	67%	72%^[3]	68%	67%	68%	*71+/-3%*	*+3%*
Net approval rate	-43%^[3]	-54%^[3]	-50%	-47%	-50%	*-54+/-5%*	*-5%*

[3] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Recent popularity figures of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:

Date of survey	4-8/1/21	2-5/2/21	24/2/21^[4]	8-12/3/21	7-9/4/21	*3-7/5/21*	*Latest change*
Sample size	600-664	529-582	859	521-548	556-639	*636-700*	—
Response rate	58.5%	62.9%	61.0%	47.6%	50.1%	*55.5%*	—
Latest findings	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	*Finding & error*	—
Rating of CS Matthew Cheung	30.7	31.2	—	32.7	32.6	*30.3+/-2.3*	*-2.4*
Vote of confidence in CS Matthew Cheung	18%	16%	—	19%	22%	*17+/-3%*	*-5%^[5]*
Vote of no confidence in CS Matthew Cheung	48%	47%	—	44%	43%	*48+/-4%*	*+5%*
Net approval rate	-29%	-31%	—	-25%	-20%	*-30+/-6%*	*-10%^[5]*
Rating of FS Paul Chan	33.6	35.2	36.2	34.7	35.8	*35.1+/-2.3*	*-0.7*
Vote of confidence in FS Paul Chan	27%	23%	27%	26%	29%	*24+/-3%*	*-5%*
Vote of no confidence in FS Paul Chan	42%	44%	51%^[5]	47%	39%^[5]	*42+/-4%*	*+3%*
Net approval rate	-14%	-21%	-24%	-21%	-10%^[5]	*-18+/-6%*	*-8%*
Rating of SJ Teresa Cheng	23.1	23.8	—	23.9	22.7	*25.0+/-2.2*	*+2.3*
Vote of confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng	14%	11%	—	14%	14%	*14+/-3%*	—
Vote of no confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng	66%	61%	—	56%	61%	*57+/-4%*	*-4%*
Net approval rate	-52%	-50%	—	-42%	-47%	*-44+/-5%*	*+4%*

[4] The survey was the Budget instant poll and only asked about the rating of FS and vote of confidence in him.

[5] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Latest popularity figures of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system sorted by net approval rates^[6] are summarized below:

Date of survey	9-13/11/20	4-8/1/21	8-12/3/21	*3-7/5/21*	*Latest change*
Sample size	588-642	603-628	533-710	*614-647*	—
Response rate	63.9%	58.5%	47.6%	*55.5%*	—
Latest findings	Finding	Finding	Finding	*Finding & error*	—
Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing	28%^[7]	25%	24%	*29+/-4%*	*+5%^[7]*
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing	28%	28%	28%	*27+/-4%*	*-1%*
Net approval rate	-<1%^[7]	-3%	-4%	*2+/-6%*	*+6%*
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Innovation and Technology Alfred Sit	23%	23%	24%	*21+/-3%*	*-3%*
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Innovation and Technology Alfred Sit	26%^[7]	33%^[7]	28%	*25+/-4%*	*-3%*
Net approval rate	-3%^[7]	-10%	-4%	*-5+/-5%*	*-1%*
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui	20%^[7]	20%	19%	*18+/-3%*	*-1%*
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui	21%^[7]	26%	19%^[7]	*24+/-3%*	*+5%^[7]*
Net approval rate	-1%^[7]	-7%	1%	*-6+/-5%*	*-7%*
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Development Michael Wong	21%^[7]	21%	21%	*18+/-3%*	*-3%*
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Development Michael Wong	27%	26%	23%	*25+/-4%*	*+3%*
Net approval rate	-6%^[7]	-5%	-2%	*-7+/-5%*	*-5%*
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Caspar Tsui	20%	19%	21%	*21+/-3%*	—
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Caspar Tsui	29%^[7]	31%	29%	*30+/-4%*	*+1%*
Net approval rate	-9%^[7]	-13%	-8%	*-9+/-6%*	*-1%*
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau	28%^[7]	25%	25%	*26+/-4%*	*+1%*
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau	38%^[7]	39%	35%	*35+/-4%*	—
Net approval rate	-10%^[7]	-14%	-10%	*-9+/-6%*	*+1%*
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan	25%^[7]	24%	16%^[7]	*24+/-3%*	*+8%^[7]*
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan	38%^[7]	39%	40%	*35+/-4%*	*-5%*
Net approval rate	-13%^[7]	-15%	-24%^[7]	*-11+/-6%*	*+13%^[7]*
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong	28%	31%	25%^[7]	*26+/-4%*	*+1%*
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong	36%^[7]	37%	36%	*37+/-4%*	*+1%*
Net approval rate	-9%^[7]	-6%	-11%	*-12+/-6%*	*-1%*
Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Patrick Nip	23%	23%	25%	*24+/-3%*	*-1%*
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Patrick Nip	42%^[7]	44%	42%	*39+/-4%*	*-2%*
Net approval rate	-19%	-21%	-17%	*-15+/-6%*	*+1%*
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan	36%^[7]	25%^[7]	23%	*24+/-3%*	*+1%*
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan	38%^[7]	46%^[7]	49%	*45+/-4%*	*-4%*
Net approval rate	-2%^[7]	-20%^[7]	-26%	*-21+/-7%*	*+5%*
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Erick Tsang	23%	21%	22%	*19+/-3%*	*-3%*
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Erick Tsang	43%^[7]	40%	37%	*41+/-4%*	*+4%*
Net approval rate	-20%^[7]	-19%	-15%	*-22+/-6%*	*-8%*
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Security John Lee	24%	25%	27%	*27+/-4%*	—
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Security John Lee	55%^[7]	55%	51%	*51+/-4%*	*-1%*
Net approval rate	-31%^[7]	-30%	-24%	*-24+/-7%*	—
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung	20%	17%	15%	*14+/-3%*	*-1%*
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung	59%	60%	58%	*58+/-4%*	*+1%*
Net approval rate	-39%	-42%	-43%	*-44+/-6%*	*-2%*

[6] If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.

[7] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is 30.4 marks, with 42% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her approval rate is 17%, disapproval rate 71%, giving a net popularity of negative 54 percentage points. All popularity figures have not changed much from half a month ago.

As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 30.3 marks. His approval rate is 17%, disapproval rate 48%, giving a net popularity of negative 30 percentage points, registering a significant decrease of 10 percentage points from a month ago. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 35.1 marks, approval rate 24%, disapproval rate 42%, thus a net popularity of negative 18 percentage points. These figures have not changed much from a month ago. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 25.0 marks, approval rate 14%, disapproval rate 57%, giving a net popularity of negative 44 percentage points, also not changed much from a month ago.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, except for Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing who has got a net approval rate of positive 2 percentage points, everyone else register negative net approval rates. The second to fourth positions go to Secretary for Innovation and Technology Alfred Sit, Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui and Secretary for Development Michael Wong, followed by Secretary for Home Affairs Caspar Tsui, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau, Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan, Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong, Secretary for the Civil Service Patrick Nip, Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Erick Tsang, Secretary for Security John Lee and Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung. Compared to two months ago, the net approval rates of 5 Directors have gone up, 7 have gone down, while 1 remains unchanged, but only the net approval rate of Frank Chan has significantly increased, registering an increase of 13 percentage points.

According to POP’s standard, no one falls under the category of “ideal” or “successful” performer. The performance of Wong Kam-sing, Law Chi-kwong, Edward Yau, Paul Chan, Frank Chan, Sophia Chan, Patrick Nip, Caspar Tsui, Erick Tsang and Matthew Cheung can be labeled as “mediocre”. That of Alfred Sit, Michael Wong and Christopher Hui can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. Kevin Yeung, Teresa Cheng and John Lee fall into the category of “depressing” performer, while Carrie Lam falls into that of “disastrous”.

The following table summarizes the grading of CE Carrie Lam and the principal officials:

“Ideal”: those with approval rates of over 66%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets^[8]

Nil

“Successful”: those with approval rates of over 50%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets^[8]

Nil

“Mediocre”: those not belonging to other 5 types; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets^[8]

Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing (29%)

Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong (26%)

Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau (26%)

FS Paul Chan (24%)

Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan (24%)

Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan (24%)

Secretary for the Civil Service Patrick Nip (24%)

Secretary for Home Affairs Caspar Tsui (21%)

Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Erick Tsang (19%)

CS Matthew Cheung (17%)

“Inconspicuous”: those with recognition rates of less than 50%; ranked by their approval rates^[8]; the first figure inside bracket is approval rate while the second figure is recognition rate

Secretary for Innovation and Technology Alfred Sit (21%, 46%)

Secretary for Development Michael Wong (18%, 43%)

Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui (18%, 41%)

“Depressing”: those with disapproval rates of over 50%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets^[8]

Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung (58%)

SJ Teresa Cheng (57%)

Secretary for Security John Lee (51%)

“Disastrous”: those with disapproval rates of over 66%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets^[8]

CE Carrie Lam (71%)

[8] If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.

Opinion Daily

In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.

For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 8 to 12 March, 2021 while this survey was conducted from 3 to 7 May, 2021. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

7/5/21	The government announces that vaccinated person can have shorter quarantine period.
5/5/21	Seven cases involving coronavirus variant are confirmed to be related.
4/5/21	Residents of Block R of Allway Gardens are put into quarantine centre for 21 days.
3/5/21	Residents of Beauty Mansion in Tsim Sha Tsui are put into quarantine centre for 21 days.
2/5/21	The government plans to require foreign domestic helpers to be vaccinated to come to Hong Kong or renew contracts.
1/5/21	Virus genome sequencing shows coronavirus variant has spread in the community.
30/4/21	The government imposes mandatory testing for all foreign domestic helpers in Hong Kong.
29/4/21	Hong Kong records the first untraceable case involving coronavirus variant.
27/4/21	The government relaxes some anti-epidemic measures with “vaccine bubble” as the basis.
26/4/21	The governments of Hong Kong and Singapore announce that Air Travel Bubble arrangement will begin on May 26.
23/4/21	Former member of Hong Kong National Front is jailed for 12 years for possessing explosives.
17/4/21	Coronavirus variant is found in the Hong Kong community for the first time.
16/4/21	9 famous democrats are convicted and jailed for 8.18 assembly.
15/4/21	The government holds “National Security Education Day”.
13/4/21	The government will make law to ban public call to not vote or cast blank or spoilt votes.
12/4/21	The government announces it will adjust social distancing measures with “vaccine bubble” as the basis.
11/4/21	Four stored value facilities will assist in the distribution of electronic consumption vouchers.
2/4/21	The Department of Health urges taking preventive measures during gatherings in the long weekend.
30/3/21	NPCSC passes amendments to the Basic Law to amend Hong Kong’s electoral system.
29/3/21	The government relaxes anti-epidemic measures.
27/3/21	First day of zero confirmed cases since 2021.
24/3/21	The government halts BioNTech vaccination because of packaging defects.
15/3/21	The government expands COVID-19 vaccination priority groups’ coverage.
13/3/21	The government locks down multiple buildings in the Mid-Levels for compulsory testing.

Data Analysis

Our survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is 30.4 marks, with 42% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her net popularity stands at negative 54 percentage points. All popularity figures mentioned above have not changed much from half a month ago.

As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 30.3 marks. His net popularity is negative 30 percentage points, registering a significant decrease of 10 percentage points from a month ago. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 35.1 His net popularity is negative 18 percentage points. These figures have not changed much from a month ago. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 25.0 marks, her net popularity is negative 44 percentage points, also not changed much from a month ago.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, except for Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing who has got a net approval rate of positive 2 percentage points, everyone else register negative net approval rates. Compared to two months ago, the net approval rates of 5 Directors have gone up, 7 have gone down, while 1 remains unchanged, but only the net approval rate of Frank Chan has significantly increased, registering an increase of 13 percentage points.