POP releases popularities of CE and principal officials (2021-07-13)

Jul 13, 2021
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials

Detailed Findings

POP releases popularities of CE and principal officials

Special Announcement

The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.

Abstract

POP successfully interviewed 1,003 Hong Kong residents by a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers from late June to early July. Our survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is 34.0 marks, registering a significant increase of 4.2 marks compared to half a month ago, as well as a record high since early June 2019, with 37% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her net popularity stands at negative 47 percentage points, which has not changed much from half a month ago. As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of the newly appointed CS John Lee is 38.0 marks. His net popularity is negative 5 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan has significantly increased by 8.0 points from a month ago to 43.5, registering a record high since February 2018. His net popularity has also significantly increased by 19 percentage points to positive 1, registering a record high since February 2017. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating has significantly increased by 4.0 points to 28.1 marks, registering a record high since early June 2019. Her net popularity has also significantly increased by 10 percentage points to negative 37, registering a record high since April 2019. As for the Directors of Bureaux, 8 out of 13 have got positive net approval rates. Compared to two months ago, the net approval rates of all Directors have gone up. Only those of Wong Kam-sing, Frank Chan and Caspar Tsui have not changed beyond sampling errors. That of Frank Chan has registered a record high since July 2018, that of Michael Wong has registered a record high since early June 2019, while those of Alfred Sit, Christopher Hui, Patrick Nip and Erick Tsang have registered record highs since they were appointed in May 2020. The effective response rate of the survey is 46.4%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-7% and that of ratings is +/-3.1 at 95% confidence level.

Contact Information

[1] This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.

[2] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.

Latest Figures

Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:

[3] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Recent popularity figures of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:

[4] The survey was the Budget instant poll and only asked about the rating of FS and vote of confidence in him.

[5] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Latest popularity figures of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system sorted by net approval rates^[6] are summarized below:

[6] If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.

[7] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is 34.0 marks, registering a significant increase of 4.2 marks compared to half a month ago, as well as a record high since early June 2019, with 37% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her approval rate is 20%, disapproval rate 67%, giving a net popularity of negative 47 percentage points. These popularity figures have not changed much from half a month ago.

As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of the newly appointed CS John Lee is 38.0 marks. His approval rate is 32%, disapproval rate 37%, giving a net popularity of negative 5 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan has significantly increased by 8.0 points from a month ago to 43.5, registering a record high since February 2018. His approval rate and disapproval rate are both at 32%, thus his net popularity has also significantly increased by 19 percentage points to positive 1, registering a record high since February 2017. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating has significantly increased by 4.0 points to 28.1 marks, registering a record high since early June 2019. Her approval rate is 16%, disapproval rate 53%, thus her net popularity has also significantly increased by 10 percentage points to negative 37, registering a record high since April 2019.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, 8 out of 13 have got positive net approval rates, ranked from high to low are Secretary for Development Michael Wong, Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing, Secretary for Innovation and Technology Alfred Sit, Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau, Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong, Secretary for Security Chris Tang and Secretary for the Civil Service Patrick Nip. The 9th to 13th positions who have got negative net approval rates go to Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Erick Tsang, Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan, Secretary for Home Affairs Caspar Tsui, Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan and Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung. Compared to two months ago, the net approval rates of all Directors have gone up. Only those of Wong Kam-sing, Frank Chan and Caspar Tsui have not changed beyond sampling errors. That of Frank Chan has registered a record high since July 2018, that of Michael Wong has registered a record high since early June 2019, while those of Alfred Sit, Christopher Hui, Patrick Nip and Erick Tsang have registered record highs since they were appointed in May 2020.

According to POP’s standard, no one falls under the category of “ideal” or “successful” performer. The performance of Chris Tang, Edward Yau, Paul Chan, Patrick Nip, Law Chi-kwong, John Lee, Wong Kam-sing, Erick Tsang, Sophia Chan and Frank Chan can be labeled as “mediocre”. That of Alfred Sit, Michael Wong, Christopher Hui and Caspar Tsui can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. Teresa Cheng and Kevin Yeung fall into the category of “depressing” performer, while Carrie Lam falls into that of “disastrous”.

The following table summarizes the grading of CE Carrie Lam and the principal officials:

[8] If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.

Opinion Daily

In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.

For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 3 to 7 May, 2021 while this survey was conducted from 30 June to 8 July, 2021. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

Data Analysis

Our survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is 34.0 marks, registering a significant increase of 4.2 marks compared to half a month ago, as well as a record high since early June 2019, with 37% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her net popularity stands at negative 47 percentage points, which has not changed much from half a month ago.

As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of the newly appointed CS John Lee is 38.0 marks. His net popularity is negative 5 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan has significantly increased by 8.0 points from a month ago to 43.5, registering a record high since February 2018. His net popularity has also significantly increased by 19 percentage points to positive 1, registering a record high since February 2017. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating has significantly increased by 4.0 points to 28.1 marks, registering a record high since early June 2019. Her net popularity has also significantly increased by 10 percentage points to negative 37, registering a record high since April 2019.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, 8 out of 13 have got positive net approval rates. Compared to two months ago, the net approval rates of all Directors have gone up. Only those of Wong Kam-sing, Frank Chan and Caspar Tsui have not changed beyond sampling errors. That of Frank Chan has registered a record high since July 2018, that of Michael Wong has registered a record high since early June 2019, while those of Alfred Sit, Christopher Hui, Patrick Nip and Erick Tsang have registered record highs since they were appointed in May 2020.