Aug 17, 2021
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials
Detailed Findings
Speakers:
Kim-Wah Chung – Deputy CEO, HKPORI
Owan Li – Former Yau Tsim Mong District Councillor
Edward Tai – Manager (Data Science), HKPORI
Special Announcement
The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.
Abstract
POP successfully interviewed 1,002 Hong Kong residents by a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in early August. Our survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is 35.1 marks. It has not changed much from half a month ago, but has again registered a record high since early June 2019, with 35% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her net popularity stands at negative 46 percentage points, which has not changed much from half a month ago. As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS John Lee is 35.3 marks. His net popularity is negative 11 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 41.3 marks. His net popularity stands at positive 4 percentage points, registering another record high since February 2017. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 27.7 marks. Her net popularity is negative 39 percentage points. The effective response rate of the survey is 49.4%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-7% and that of ratings is +/-3.1 at 95% confidence level.
Contact Information
| Date of survey | : | 9-12/8/2021 |
| Survey method | : | Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers |
| Target population | : | Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above |
| Sample size[1] | : | 1,002 (including 503 landline and 499 mobile samples) |
| Effective response rate | : | 49.4% |
| Sampling error[2] | : | Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-7% and that of ratings not more than +/-3.1 at 95% conf. level |
| Weighting method | : | Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2020”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong – Key Statistics (2020 Edition)”. |
[1] This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.
[2] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
Latest Figures
Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:
| Date of survey | 17-21/5/21 | 7-10/6/21 | 21-25/6/21 | 30/6-8/7/21 | 19-22/7/21 | 9-12/8/21 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 1,004 | 1,008 | 1,014 | 1,003 | 1,000 | 1,002 | — |
| Response rate | 52.5% | 55.1% | 49.3% | 46.4% | 48.5% | 49.4% | — |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | — |
| Rating of CE Carrie Lam | 30.8 | 30.3 | 29.8 | 34.0[3] | 34.7 | 35.1+/-2.1 | +0.4 |
| Vote of confidence in CE Carrie Lam |
18% | 16% | 17% | 20% | 20% | 20+/-3% | — |
| Vote of no confidence in CE Carrie Lam |
68% | 70% | 70% | 67% | 68% | 66+/-3% | -2% |
| Net approval rate | -50% | -53% | -53% | -47% | -48% | -46+/-5% | +2% |
[3] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Recent popularity figures of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:
| Date of survey | 8-12/3/21 | 7-9/4/21 | 3-7/5/21 | 7-10/6/21 | 30/6-8/7/21 | 9-12/8/21 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 521-548 | 556-639 | 636-700 | 570-692 | 590-647 | 574-600 | — |
| Response rate | 47.6% | 50.1% | 55.5% | 55.1% | 46.4% | 49.4% | — |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | — |
| Rating of CS John Lee | — | — | — | — | 38.0 | 35.3+/-3.1 | -2.8 |
| Vote of confidence in CS John Lee | — | — | — | — | 32% | 29+/-4% | -3% |
| Vote of no confidence in CS John Lee | — | — | — | — | 37% | 40+/-4% | +3% |
| Net approval rate | — | — | — | — | -5% | -11+/-7% | -6% |
| Rating of FS Paul Chan | 34.7 | 35.8 | 35.1 | 35.4 | 43.5[4] | 41.3+/-2.5 | -2.2 |
| Vote of confidence in FS Paul Chan | 26% | 29% | 24% | 25% | 32%[4] | 33+/-4% | +1% |
| Vote of no confidence in FS Paul Chan | 47% | 39%[4] | 42% | 43% | 32%[4] | 29+/-4% | -2% |
| Net approval rate | -21% | -10%[4] | -18% | -18% | 1%[4] | 4+/-7% | +3% |
| Rating of SJ Teresa Cheng | 23.9 | 22.7 | 25.0 | 24.2 | 28.1[4] | 27.7+/-2.5 | -0.4 |
| Vote of confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng | 14% | 14% | 14% | 14% | 16% | 14+/-3% | -2% |
| Vote of no confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng | 56% | 61% | 57% | 61% | 53%[4] | 53+/-4% | — |
| Net approval rate | -42% | -47% | -44% | -47% | -37%[4] | -39+/-6% | -2% |
[4] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is 35.1 marks. It has not changed much from half a month ago, but has again registered a record high since early June 2019, with 35% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her approval rate is 20%, disapproval rate 66%, giving a net popularity of negative 46 percentage points. These popularity figures have not changed much from half a month ago.
As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS John Lee is 35.3 marks. His approval rate is 29%, disapproval rate 40%, giving a net popularity of negative 11 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 41.3 marks. His approval rate is 33%, disapproval rate 29%, giving a net popularity of positive 4 percentage points, registering another record high since February 2017. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 27.7 marks. Her approval rate is 14%, disapproval rate 53%, giving a net popularity of negative 39 percentage points.
Opinion Daily
In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.
For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 30 June to 8 July, 2021 while this survey was conducted from 9 to 12 August, 2021. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
| 10/8/21 | The Hong Kong Professional Teachers’ Union announces it will be dissolved. |
| 8/8/21 | Sarah Lee wins bronze in the women’s cycling sprint in the Olympics, meaning one gold, two silver and three bronze medals for Hong Kong. |
| 6/8/21 | The nomination period for the Election Committee Subsector Elections begins. |
| 4/8/21 | The government tightens requirements for the Return2hk scheme to prevent spread of the Delta variant from Macau. |
| 2/8/21 | The government requires four targeted groups to undergo regular testing at their own expense if they do not get vaccinated. |
| 1/8/21 | The government delivers the first batch of electronic consumption vouchers worth $2,000. |
| 31/7/21 | The Education Bureau terminates all working relations with Hong Kong Professional Teachers’ Union. |
| 30/7/21 | Tong Ying-kit is jailed for 9 years for inciting secession and terrorism. |
| 26/7/21 | Edgar Cheung wins gold in the men’s foil individual competition in the Olympics. |
| 16/7/21 | Xia Baolong spells out five qualities people who govern Hong Kong must possess. |
| 11/7/21 | Hong Kong confirms a case of coronavirus disease, leading to compulsory testing for tens of thousands of airport staff. |
| 8/7/21 | Two towers of The Pavilia Farm III will be demolished and rebuilt for failing to meet concrete strength requirement. |
| 6/7/21 | Police arrests nine people who allegedly plotted terrorist attacks. |
| 4/7/21 | Police arrests two people who allegedly incited violence online. |
| 3/7/21 | The government calls the July 1 stabbing a “lone wolf terrorist attack”. |
| 2/7/21 | A man kills himself after stabbing a police officer in Causeway Bay. |
Data Analysis
Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is 35.1 marks. It has not changed much from half a month ago, but has again registered a record high since early June 2019, with 35% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her net popularity stands at negative 46 percentage points, which has not changed much from half a month ago.
As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS John Lee is 35.3 marks. His net popularity is negative 11 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 41.3 marks. His net popularity stands at positive 4 percentage points, registering another record high since February 2017. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 27.7 marks. Her net popularity is negative 39 percentage points.
