毛澤東功過七三開,這是鄧小平在1980年說的。鄧小平功過也是七三開,這是民研團隊在1997年2月的民調總結。江澤民功過幾多開,香港民研沒有數據了。
1997年2月,民研團隊總結了香港市民對近代中國領導人的功過評價,包括鄧小平、周恩來、毛澤東和蔣介石,數據包括1995年、1996和1997年,之後沒有再做調查了。是否一個損失?要由歷史學家評價了。
蓋棺是否需要定論?是史學家的問題,但定論有何根據?民意研究應有一定作用。不過,歷史不斷有人改寫,民意亦在不斷改變,什麼時候最為合適?什麼理據最為中肯?可能也不容易回答。
嬴政作古超過二千年,功過定論仍然反反覆覆。科學家最近公布,從格陵蘭永凍層採集的DNA樣本,可以追溯至200萬年前。他們其實在16年前已經找到樣本,但當時的科技未夠先進,所以要儲存到現在,才開始解封研究。
香港民研也是一樣。條件未成熟,風險未解除,我們也無需急於為任何研究下定論。 我們會盡量保存數據,猶如科學家保存DNA一樣,為未來的科學研究打好基礎。
Mao Zedong’s merits and demerits were split 70-30, according to Deng Xiaoping in 1980. Deng Xiaoping’s own split was also 70-30, according to surveys conducted by the POP Team in February 1997. We do not have any data on Jiang Zemin.
In February 1997, the POP Team summarized Hong Kong people’s appraisal of the merits and faults of modern Chinese leaders, including Deng Xiaoping, Zhou Enlai, Mao Zedong and Chiang Kai Shek, with figures obtained in 1995, 1996 and 1997. Now we don’t have any. Is it a loss? We leave it to the historians.
Do we need these conclusions? This is a question for historians, but for the basis of such conclusions, opinion researchers may be able to help. However, history is constantly being rewritten, and public opinion is always on the change, so the questions of when is the best time and what is the best conclusion cannot be easily answered.
China’s first emperor has died for more than 2,000 years, the appraisal of his rule is still inconclusive. Scientists recently announced that DNA samples collected from Greenland permafrost can be traced back to 2 million years ago. They had the samples 16 years ago, but could only wait until now for technology to advance.
The same is true for our team. The conditions are not yet mature and the risk is not yet released, there is no rush to conclude any research. We will preserve the data as much as we can, just like scientists preserving their DNA samples, in order to facilitate future research.