世界民意研究學會（學會）上月底在韓國首爾結束第77屆周年大會。成立於二戰後的學會，迄今走過了四分三個世紀，今年的主題回歸民意研究的本質：Liberty（自由權利）、Quality（專業素養）及 Humanity（人文精神）。會議上，來自世界各地的幾百位民意研究者聚首討論民意調查現今的角色與作用，以及如何利用創新的方法，分析解讀民調，讓人們的聲音被聽見（let people’s voice be heard）。
► 香港與盛事的距離
這樣的盛事曾經也出現在香港。2012年，香港民意研究所尚未從香港大學獨立，世界民意研究學會首次踏出歐美，選址香港大學舉辦第65屆周年大會。時任港大民研總監鍾庭耀記得，當時學會內部討論經年才有了選址香港的決定，是開拓亞洲民意研究發展重要的一步。他形容：「12年前是歷史的突破，是WAPOR（學會）的突破。」各國人員到埗，從語言、交通以至飲食，都能體會到香港作為國際都會的獨特性。
12年過去，香港還能再次主辦周年大會嗎？現為香港民意研究所主席及行政總裁的鍾庭耀思考著。他認為，香港的自由空間比12年前萎縮，觸碰到某些議題會引來政府部門的「勸喻」，但民意調查仍然有生存空間。他續舉例說，選舉民調並沒有發布限制，票站民調仍然可以經申請後進行。事實上，世界民意研究學會兩年前在杜拜舉行周年大會，聚焦檢視民意研究在戰後的發展。鍾當時出任學會副主席，表示大會選址在杜拜舉行時，也曾考慮當地政府對民研的開放程度。
► 香港在世界的角色 民調在世界的作用
今屆周年大會移師韓國首爾，香港的民意研究並未缺席。在眾多論文報告的環節中，有香港學者與來自不同國家的學者專家，一同研究香港、法國、卡塔爾、科威特、印度、墨西哥不同級別的選舉，共同研究影響選民投票行為的因素。
現任學會會長鍾庭耀則在會期最後一天主持圓桌會議，關注民意研究如何盛載人文精神。席間還有創作劇場表演「100%香港」的德國和香港藝術家，講述「100% City」的概念，如何將民調搬到舞台，將數字還原為生命。鍾庭耀最後總結，指出民意研究無非是為人類（humankind）服務。
持守民意研究的核心價值，在政治形勢複雜多變、科技發展日新月異的環境下顯得日益重要。民意研究者認為，讓人們的聲音被聽見，民意研究將能用於解決紛爭。誠如誕生於1947年的學會，作為二戰後成立的多個國際組織之一，是人類為了尋求世界大戰不再爆發的一個嘗試，其所體現的人文精神貫穿歷史。
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At the end of last month, the World Association for Public Opinion Research (WAPOR) concluded its 77th annual conference in Seoul, South Korea. Founded after World War II, the association has been in existence for three quarters of a century. This year’s theme returned to the essence of public opinion research: Liberty, Quality, and Humanity. Hundreds of public opinion researchers from around the world gathered to discuss the current role and impact of opinion polls and how to use innovative methods to interpret them, to let people’s voices be heard.
► The Distance Between Hong Kong and Mega Events
Such mega events have also taken place in Hong Kong. In 2012, when the Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute (HKPORI) was still part of The University of Hong Kong, WAPOR held its 65th annual conference there, marking its first outside Europe and America. Robert Chung, then Director of the HKU Public Opinion Programme, recalls that the decision to choose Hong Kong followed years of internal discussion, marking a significant step in developing public opinion research in Asia. He described it as a historic breakthrough for WAPOR and Hong Kong, showcasing the city’s uniqueness as an international metropolis through language, transport, and cuisine.
12 years have gone by, can Hong Kong host the annual conference again? Chung, now President and CEO of HKPORI, ponders this. He believes Hong Kong’s freedom has shrunk compared to 12 years ago, leading to government “advice” when touching on certain topics. However, there’s still space for public opinion polls to exist. For instance, publication of election polls are not restricted, and exit polls can still be conducted upon proper application. As a matter of fact, WAPOR held its annual conference in Dubai two years ago, focused on examining the post-war development of public opinion research. Chung, then Vice President of WAPOR, said WAPOR has also considered the local government’s level of openness when it chose Dubai as the conference location.
► Hong Kong’s Role in the World, The Role of Polls Globally
At this year’s conference in Seoul, Hong Kong’s public opinion research was still present. Among the many presentation sessions, scholars from Hong Kong and other countries studied together the elections in Hong Kong, France, Qatar, Kuwait, India, and Mexico, exploring factors influencing voter behaviour.
Chung, now WAPOR president, chaired a roundtable on the last day, focusing on how public opinion research embodies humanity. The session invited German and Hong Kong artists who created the theatre production “100% Hong Kong”, presented the concept of “100% City”, and how they bring polls to the stage and transform numbers into life. Chung concluded by stating that public opinion research ultimately serves humankind.
Upholding the core values of public opinion research is increasingly important amid the complex political situations and rapid technological advancements. Researchers believe that by letting people’s voices be heard, public opinion research can help resolve conflicts. Founded in 1947, WAPOR is one of many international organisations established after World War II, embodying the human spirit throughout history in the quest to prevent future conflicts.
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