世界民意研究學會（學會）上月底在韓國首爾舉行周年大會，但其實12年前，學會的周年大會首次踏出歐美地區，香港便代表亞洲成為第一個歐美以外的年會東道主。成就解鎖不是偶然，除了考慮到香港作為國際都市的獨特性，更重要的是香港民意研究一路以來的發展，累積了足夠的歷史厚度與研究深度。
► 歷史的開端：1991年已有輿論壓力
香港首個學術民意研究機構成立於1991年6月—— 香港大學民意研究計劃（港大民研），由鍾庭耀擔任研究主任。同年，港英政府舉行首次地區直選立法局選舉，民意調查由此進場。鍾庭耀憶述：「當時已經有輿論，懷疑民意調查是為政黨造勢。」民調顯示民主派候選人領先，而9月份選舉結果揭盅，民主派贏得差不多所有直選議席。民意調查作為一種科學工具，開始被公眾看見；同時，民意調查開始被政府重視。這是香港民調發展的開端。
當年，史丹福大學與香港大學合作， 為港澳民意研究者提供工作坊，澳門最終於2011年就修改《出版法》和《視聽廣播法》進行慎思民調，澳方稱為商議式民調，結果決定暫緩廣播法立法。然而，不能忽視的是民調過程中派發的平衡簡介資料，到底是否有助公眾公平地理解法案，也曾受到質疑。至於香港，由於未曾出現過慎思民調，方法學的討論也無從談起。
► 歷史的走向
香港的民意研究，過去三十多年經歷過許多挑戰，可以預示未來的難關將會更多。然而，望向國際社會，香港的學者在世界民意研究學會出任會長、在周年大會繼續發表關於香港民調的研究、民意研究機構繼續推動前沿的研究方法，未來仍然是值得期待的。
（香港民研編輯部）
轉載文章時請註明出處為「香港民意研究所」
The World Association for Public Opinion Research (WAPOR) held its annual conference in Seoul last month. Twelve years ago, Hong Kong was the first Asian host, marking a significant milestone due to its unique international status. More importantly, it was a recognition of the historical depth and research development of public opinion research in Hong Kong.
► The Beginning: Pressure Built up on Day One in 1991
Hong Kong’s first academic public opinion research institution, the Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP), was established in June 1991, led by Robert Chung. That same year, the British Hong Kong government held its first direct elections for the Legislative Council. Public opinion polls began then. Chung recalls, “There were already people saying that opinion polling was part of election engineering.” The polls showed democrats leading, and they won almost all the direct-elected seats in September. Public opinion polls, as a scientific tool, gained visibility and caught the government’s attention. This marked the start of Hong Kong’s polling development.
By 2000, during the “HKU Polling Incident,” polls were deeply embroiled in political controversy. Following the incident, HKU’s Council formed an independent committee which confirmed that government pressure on HKUPOP constituted an infringement on academic freedom. HKUPOP’s work continued. Polls continued to reflect social conditions, with polling institutions mirroring another side of societal reality. In July 2019, HKUPOP spun off from HKU with Robert Chung’s retirement, forming today’s Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute (HKPORI).
► A Historical Regret: Unfulfilled Deliberative Polling
Robert Chung reflects on the development of Hong Kong’s polling and the unfulfilled dream of Deliberative Polling. Proposed by a Stanford professor, this method involves randomly sampled citizens receiving balanced briefing materials and engaging in discussions with experts or political leaders held by neutral moderators, directly influencing government policies.
Stanford worked with HKU to provide workshops for Hong Kong and Macau researchers. In 2011, Macau conducted deliberative polling on amendments to the Publishing Law and Broadcasting Law, resulting in delaying the latter. However, the fairness of the balanced materials provided was questioned. In Hong Kong, deliberative polling never happened, leaving methodological discussions unexplored.
► History in the Future
Over the past 30 years, Hong Kong’s public opinion research has faced many challenges, with more expected in the future. Yet, internationally, Hong Kong scholars hold positions in WAPOR, present research on Hong Kong polls at annual conferences, and push forward cutting-edge research methods. The future remains promising.
(HKPORI’s Editorial)
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