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民研計劃發放市民最熟悉政治人物排名榜 (2020-02-18)

POP releases rankings of people’s most familiar political figures (2020-02-18)

2020年2月18日香港民意研究所發佈會 – 傳媒參考資料

發佈會回顧

 2020218 新聞公報

民研計劃發放市民最熟悉政治人物排名榜

特別宣佈

  1. 香港民意研究計劃(香港民研)前身為香港大學民意研究計劃(港大民研)。公報內的「民研計劃」指的可以是香港民研或其前身港大民研。
  2. 香港民研今日發放的市民最熟悉政治人物排名榜,是本年7月1日前發放的最後一次,未來會否繼續,要視乎公眾是否支持。

公報簡要

民研計劃於二月初由真實訪問員以隨機抽樣電話訪問方式成功訪問了1,001名香港居民。結果顯示,最多被訪者提及的首十名政治人物分別為林鄭月娥、曾蔭權、董建華、梁振英、葉劉淑儀、李柱銘、陳方安生、曾俊華、曾鈺成和梁國雄,然後第十一至二十名分別為鄺俊宇、楊岳橋、李慧琼、陳茂波、唐英年、陳淑莊、張建宗、黃之鋒、陳肇始和蔣麗芸。當中陳肇始的提名比率創新高。對比半年前,不分民望高低,7位政治人物能夠蟬聯十大,鄺俊宇、毛孟靜和楊岳橋跌出十大,並由曾俊華、曾鈺成和梁國雄取代。總結過去10次調查的結果,林鄭月娥、梁振英、曾蔭權、董建華、葉劉淑儀和梁國雄,都是屬於巿民長期熟悉的本地政治人物。調查的實效回應比率為77.6%。在95%置信水平下,調查的百分比誤差不超過+/-3%。

樣本資料

調查日期 3-6/2/2020
調查方法 由真實訪問員進行隨機抽樣電話訪問
訪問對象 18歲或以上操粵語的香港居民
成功樣本數目[1] 1,001 (包括500個固網及501個手機樣本)
實效回應比率[2] 77.6%
抽樣誤差[3] 在95%置信水平下,百分比誤差不超過+/-3%
加權方法 按照政府統計處提供的統計數字以「反覆多重加權法」作出調整。全港人口年齡及性別分佈統計數字來自《二零一八年年中人口數字》,而教育程度(最高就讀程度)及經濟活動身分統計數字則來自《香港的女性及男性 - 主要統計數字》(2018年版)。

[1]     數字為調查的總樣本數目,個別題目則可能只涉及次樣本。有關數字請參閱下列數表內列出的樣本數目。

[2]     民研計劃在2017年9月前以「整體回應比率」彙報樣本資料,2017年9月開始則以「實效回應比率」彙報。2018年7月,民研計劃再調整實效回應比率的計算方法,因此改變前後的回應比率不能直接比較。

[3]     此公報中所有誤差數字均以95%置信水平計算。95%置信水平,是指倘若以不同隨機樣本重複進行有關調查100次,則95次各自計算出的誤差範圍會包含人口真實數字。由於調查數字涉及抽樣誤差,傳媒引用百分比數字時,應避免使用小數點,在引用評分數字時,則可以使用一個小數點。

最新數據

調查中,被訪者可在未經提示下說出最多10名最熟悉的香港在世政治人物。以下是最新調查中前二十名的結果[4]

調查日期 16-19/4/18 18-20/9/18 29/1-8/2/19 1-6/8/19 3-6/2/20
樣本數目 615 552 537 560 1,001
回應比率 56.4% 55.6% 63.0% 62.8% 77.6%
最新結果 比率 排名 比率 排名 比率 排名 比率 排名 比率 排名
林鄭月娥 46% 1 38% 1 35% 1 31% 1 31+/-3% 1
曾蔭權 27% 2 28% 2 33% 2 21% 4 27+/-3% 2
董建華 25% 4 23% 4 29% 3 27% 2 25+/-3% 3
梁振英 26% 3 26% 3 26% 4 25% 3 21+/-3% 4
葉劉淑儀 21% 6 15% 8 13% 7 16% 6 14+/-2% 5
李柱銘 14% 10 18% 6 14% 5 15% 8 13+/-2% 6
陳方安生 9% 14 8% 14 11% 9 20% 5 12+/-2% 7
曾俊華 18% 8 13% 9 14% 6 11% 13 12+/-2% 8
曾鈺成 16% 9 16% 7 8% 12 12% 12 12+/-2% 9
梁國雄 23% 5 19% 5 12% 8 8% 17 10+/-2% 10
鄺俊宇 1% -- 1% -- 2% 46 15% 7 10+/-2% 11
楊岳橋 5% 26 4% 27 5% 18 12% 10 10+/-2% 12
李慧琼 12% 11 6% 22 6% 14 9% 16 9+/-2% 13
陳茂波 20% 7 9% 12 11% 10 8% 19 9+/-2% 14
唐英年 9% 15 7% 17 9% 11 5% 25 8+/-2% 15
陳淑莊 6% 19 8% 13 5% 19 4% 32 8+/-2% 16
張建宗 9% 16 7% 15 6% 15 9% 15 8+/-2% 17
黃之鋒 6% 21 4% 31 4% 21 7% 21 8+/-2% 18
陳肇始 1% -- -- -- 2% 45 1% -- 7+/-2% 19
蔣麗芸 3% 34 3% 34 2% 37 5% 26 7+/-2% 20

[4]     如四捨五入後的數字相同,則會再考慮小數點後的數字。每次調查中,排名第50位以後則視作沒有上榜。

調查結果發現,最多被訪者提及的首十名政治人物分別為林鄭月娥、曾蔭權、董建華、梁振英、葉劉淑儀、李柱銘、陳方安生、曾俊華、曾鈺成和梁國雄,然後第十一至二十名分別為鄺俊宇、楊岳橋、李慧琼、陳茂波、唐英年、陳淑莊、張建宗、黃之鋒、陳肇始和蔣麗芸。當中陳肇始的提名比率創新高。

市民最熟悉政治人物調查的作用,在於以該等人物在巿民心目中熟悉程度的起跌,顯示政治生態的改變。對比半年前,不分民望高低,7位政治人物能夠蟬聯十大,鄺俊宇、毛孟靜和楊岳橋跌出十大,並由曾俊華、曾鈺成和梁國雄取代。

須要註明,「巿民最熟悉政治人物」的排名方法是以被訪者在沒有提示下說出的政治人物計,是量度知名度的方法之一,與支持度無關。換言之,知名度排名很高的政治人物並不一定是最受歡迎的政治人物,而知名度排名偏低的政治人物,亦可能會在有提示的知名度調查中得到不同的排名。但無論如何,能夠在沒有提示的調查中脫穎而出者,肯定是巿民最熟悉的政治人物。

以下則是累積過去10次大約跨越5年「巿民最熟悉政治人物」調查的部分結果:

總結排名 8-14/5/15──1-6/8/19 2-5/11/15──3-6/2/20
政治人物 10次調查平均排名[5] 政治人物 10次調查平均排名[5]
1 林鄭月娥 1.9 林鄭月娥 1.8
2 梁振英 2.0 梁振英 2.3
3 曾蔭權 4.1 曾蔭權 3.8
4 董建華 5.4 董建華 5.3
5 梁國雄 5.7 葉劉淑儀 6.4[6]
6 葉劉淑儀 6.5 梁國雄 6.4[6]
7 曾鈺成 7.4 曾俊華 7.1
8 曾俊華 7.5 曾鈺成 7.6
9 李柱銘 10.5 李柱銘 9.8
10 陳方安生 11.2 陳方安生 11.1
11 黃毓民 14.1 黃毓民 15.7
12 唐英年 17.2 李慧琼 16.4
13 李慧琼 17.5 唐英年 16.7
14 田北辰 18.9 陳茂波 17.7
15 陳茂波 19.0 田北辰 18.9
16 范徐麗泰 19.3 田北俊 21.1
17 劉慧卿 20.1 劉慧卿 22.4
18 田北俊 20.9 楊岳橋 22.6
19 梁家傑 23.7 范徐麗泰 22.7
20 李卓人 24.0 張建宗 24.5

[5]     每次調查中,排名第50位以後或者沒有上榜者,在計算平均排名時,皆作第50名論。

[6]     10次調查平均排名相同。

總結過去10次調查的結果,林鄭月娥的總結排名位列榜首,然後是梁振英、曾蔭權和董建華。葉劉淑儀和梁國雄的總結排名並列第五,然後是曾俊華、曾鈺成、李柱銘和陳方安生,總結排名第七至第十。

民意日誌

民研計劃於2007年開始與慧科訊業有限公司合作,由慧科訊業按照民研計劃設計的分析方法,將每日大事記錄傳送至民研計劃,經民研計劃核實後成為「民意日誌」。

由於本新聞公報所涉及的調查項目,上次調查日期為1-6/8/2019,而今次調查日期則為3-6/2/2020,因此是次公報中的「民意日誌」項目便以上述日期為依歸,讓讀者作出比較。以涵蓋率不下25%本地報章每日頭條新聞和報社評論計,在上述期間發生的相關大事包括以下事件,讀者可以自行判斷有關事件有否影響各項民調數字:

6/2/20 市民搶購生活必需品
5/2/20 政府宣布經中國大陸來港人士將需隔離14日
4/2/20 香港現首宗武漢肺炎死亡個案
3/2/20 政府宣布進一步關閉關口
1/2/20 醫管局員工陣線通過罷工
31/1/20 政府拒絕全面封關
29/1/20 口罩供應短缺並出現搶購潮
28/1/20 政府宣布局部封關
27/1/20 政府限制湖北居民及曾赴湖北者入境
22/1/20 香港現兩宗「高度懷疑」武漢肺炎個案
19/1/20 中環集會演變成警民衝突
14/1/20 政府推出十項民生政策
13/1/20 政府擬向海洋公園提供過百億資助
7/1/20 政府將武漢肺炎列入須呈報疾病
2/1/20 由武漢返港女子出現肺炎徵狀
1/1/20 民間人權陣線舉辦元旦大遊行
8/12/19 民間人權陣線指約80萬人參與國際人權日遊行
2/12/19 財政司司長陳茂波預計本財政年度將錄得赤字
28/11/19 美國總統特朗普簽署《香港人權與民主法案》
25/11/19 民主派取得大部分區議會議席

數據分析

最新調查顯示,最多被訪者提及的首十名政治人物分別為林鄭月娥、曾蔭權、董建華、梁振英、葉劉淑儀、李柱銘、陳方安生、曾俊華、曾鈺成和梁國雄,然後第十一至二十名分別為鄺俊宇、楊岳橋、李慧琼、陳茂波、唐英年、陳淑莊、張建宗、黃之鋒、陳肇始和蔣麗芸。當中陳肇始的提名比率創新高。對比半年前,不分民望高低,7位政治人物能夠蟬聯十大,鄺俊宇、毛孟靜和楊岳橋跌出十大,並由曾俊華、曾鈺成和梁國雄取代。總結過去10次調查的結果,林鄭月娥、梁振英、曾蔭權、董建華、葉劉淑儀和梁國雄,都是屬於巿民長期熟悉的本地政治人物。

Feb 18, 2020
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials

Press Conference Live

Special Announcements

  1. The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.
  2. The POP survey on rankings of people’s most familiar political figures is the last survey before July 1, 2020, whether it will be continued or not will depend on public support.

Abstract

POP successfully interviewed 1,001 Hong Kong residents by a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in early February. Latest results show that the 10 most frequently named political figures were Carrie Lam, Donald Tsang, Tung Chee-hwa, Leung Chun-ying, Regina Ip, Martin Lee, Anson Chan, John Tsang, Jasper Tsang and Leung Kwok-hung, followed by Roy Kwong, Alvin Yeung, Starry Lee, Paul Chan, Henry Tang, Tanya Chan, Matthew Cheung, Joshua Wong, Sophia Chan and Ann Chiang as rank eleventh to twentieth respectively. Among them, the percentage of respondents that mentioned Sophia Chan has registered new record high. Compared to half a year ago, regardless of their popularities, 7 political figures remain in the top 10. Roy Kwong, Claudia Mo and Alvin Yeung have fallen out of the top 10 list and replaced by John Tsang, Jasper Tsang and Leung Kwok-hung. Based on the results of the past 10 surveys, Carrie Lam, Leung Chun-ying, Donald Tsang, Tung Chee-hwa, Regina Ip and Leung Kwok-hung are people’s most familiar political figures in the long run. The effective response rate of the survey is 77.6%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-3% at 95% confidence level.

Contact Information

Date of survey : 3-6/2/2020
Survey method : Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers
Target population : Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above
Sample size[1] : 1,001 (including 500 landline and 501 mobile samples)
Effective response rate[2] : 77.6%
Sampling error[3] : Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% conf. level
Weighting method : Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2018”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2018 Edition)”.

[1]     This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.

[2]     Before September 2017, “overall response rate” was used to report surveys’ contact information. Starting from September 2017, “effective response rate” was used. In July 2018, POP further revised the calculation of effective response rate. Thus, the response rates before and after the change cannot be directly compared.

[3]     All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.

Latest Figures

In the survey, respondents could name, unprompted, up to 10 Hong Kong political figures currently alive whom they knew best. Results of the top 20 figures in the latest survey are summarized below[4]:

Date of survey 16-19/4/18 18-20/9/18 29/1-8/2/19 1-6/8/19 3-6/2/20
Sample size 615 552 537 560 1,001
Response rate 56.4% 55.6% 63.0% 62.8% 77.6%
Latest findings % Rank % Rank % Rank % Rank % Rank
Carrie Lam 46% 1 38% 1 35% 1 31% 1 31+/-3% 1
Donald Tsang 27% 2 28% 2 33% 2 21% 4 27+/-3% 2
Tung Chee-hwa 25% 4 23% 4 29% 3 27% 2 25+/-3% 3
Leung Chun-ying 26% 3 26% 3 26% 4 25% 3 21+/-3% 4
Regina Ip 21% 6 15% 8 13% 7 16% 6 14+/-2% 5
Martin Lee 14% 10 18% 6 14% 5 15% 8 13+/-2% 6
Anson Chan 9% 14 8% 14 11% 9 20% 5 12+/-2% 7
John Tsang 18% 8 13% 9 14% 6 11% 13 12+/-2% 8
Jasper Tsang 16% 9 16% 7 8% 12 12% 12 12+/-2% 9
Leung Kwok-hung 23% 5 19% 5 12% 8 8% 17 10+/-2% 10
Roy Kwong 1% -- 1% -- 2% 46 15% 7 10+/-2% 11
Alvin Yeung 5% 26 4% 27 5% 18 12% 10 10+/-2% 12
Starry Lee 12% 11 6% 22 6% 14 9% 16 9+/-2% 13
Paul Chan 20% 7 9% 12 11% 10 8% 19 9+/-2% 14
Henry Tang 9% 15 7% 17 9% 11 5% 25 8+/-2% 15
Tanya Chan 6% 19 8% 13 5% 19 4% 32 8+/-2% 16
Matthew Cheung 9% 16 7% 15 6% 15 9% 15 8+/-2% 17
Joshua Wong 6% 21 4% 31 4% 21 7% 21 8+/-2% 18
Sophia Chan 1% -- -- -- 2% 45 1% -- 7+/-2% 19
Ann Chiang 3% 34 3% 34 2% 37 5% 26 7+/-2% 20

[4]     If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered. For each survey, those who ranked beyond the 50th would be considered not on the list.

Survey results show that the 10 most frequently named political figures were Carrie Lam, Donald Tsang, Tung Chee-hwa, Leung Chun-ying, Regina Ip, Martin Lee, Anson Chan, John Tsang, Jasper Tsang and Leung Kwok-hung, followed by Roy Kwong, Alvin Yeung, Starry Lee, Paul Chan, Henry Tang, Tanya Chan, Matthew Cheung, Joshua Wong, Sophia Chan and Ann Chiang as rank eleventh to twentieth respectively. Among them, the percentage of respondents that mentioned Sophia Chan has registered new record high.

The purpose of the “people’s most familiar political figures” survey is to show the changing political ecology by studying the ups and downs of people’s familiarity with these figures over time. Compared to half a year ago, regardless of their popularities, 7 political figures remain in the top 10. Roy Kwong, Claudia Mo and Alvin Yeung have fallen out of the top 10 list and replaced by John Tsang, Jasper Tsang and Leung Kwok-hung.

It should be noted, however, that our ranking of “people’s most familiar political figures” is based on our surveys which requested respondents to name local political figures without prompting. This kind of familiarity measurement is not the same as prompted ratings. In other words, those high on the list may not be the most supported figures, while those lower may have a different ranking if we use a prompting method. However, those who scored best in unprompted surveys are no doubt the most well-known political figures in Hong Kong.

Herewith some of the results of our “people’s most familiar political figures” surveys accumulated over past 10 surveys spanning over about five years:

Overall rank 8-14/5/15──1-6/8/19 2-5/11/15──3-6/2/20
Political figures Average rank
for 10 surveys[5]
Political figures Average rank
for 10 surveys
[5]
1 Carrie Lam 1.9 Carrie Lam 1.8
2 Leung Chun-ying 2.0 Leung Chun-ying 2.3
3 Donald Tsang 4.1 Donald Tsang 3.8
4 Tung Chee-hwa 5.4 Tung Chee-hwa 5.3
5 Leung Kwok-hung 5.7 Regina Ip 6.4[6]
6 Regina Ip 6.5 Leung Kwok-hung 6.4[6]
7 Jasper Tsang 7.4 John Tsang 7.1
8 John Tsang 7.5 Jasper Tsang 7.6
9 Martin Lee 10.5 Martin Lee 9.8
10 Anson Chan 11.2 Anson Chan 11.1
11 Wong Yuk-man 14.1 Wong Yuk-man 15.7
12 Henry Tang 17.2 Starry Lee 16.4
13 Starry Lee 17.5 Henry Tang 16.7
14 Michael Tien 18.9 Paul Chan 17.7
15 Paul Chan 19.0 Michael Tien 18.9
16 Rita Fan 19.3 James Tien 21.1
17 Emily Lau 20.1 Emily Lau 22.4
18 James Tien 20.9 Alvin Yeung 22.6
19 Alan Leong 23.7 Rita Fan 22.7
20 Lee Cheuk-yan 24.0 Matthew Cheung 24.5

[5]     For each survey, those who ranked beyond the 50th and those not on the list are counted as 50th in our calculation of average ranks.

[6]     The average ranks for 10 surveys are identical.

Based on the results of the past 10 surveys, Carrie Lam has the highest overall rank, followed by Leung Chun-ying, Donald Tsang and Tung Chee-hwa. Regina Ip and Leung Kwok-hung share the 5th overall rank, followed by John Tsang, Jasper Tsang, Martin Lee and Anson Chan, who rank 7th to 10th.

Opinion Daily

In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 1 to 6 August, 2019 while this survey was conducted from 3 to 6 February, 2020. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

6/2/20 People rush to purchase daily necessities.
5/2/20 The government announces people entering Hong Kong from mainland China will be placed on a 14-day quarantine.
4/2/20 First death from Wuhan pneumonia is reported in Hong Kong.
3/2/20 The government announces further closure of borders.
1/2/20 Hospital Authority Employees Alliance members vote to go on strike.
31/1/20 The government refuses full border closure.
29/1/20 People rush to purchase masks, which are in short supply.
28/1/20 The government announces partial border closure.
27/1/20 The government imposes immigration restrictions on Hubei residents and people who visited Hubei.
22/1/20 Two “highly suspected” Wuhan pneumonia cases are found in Hong Kong.
19/1/20 Rally at Central turns into a conflict between protestors and the police.
14/1/20 The government announces ten initiatives to benefit livelihoods of the people.
13/1/20 The government plans to provide over $10 billion to Ocean Park as a subsidy.
7/1/20 The government adds Wuhan pneumonia to the list of notifiable diseases.
2/1/20 A woman back from Wuhan has symptoms of pneumonia.
1/1/20 The Civil Human Rights Front organizes the New Year Rally.
8/12/19 The Civil Human Rights Front announces that around eight hundred thousand people participated in the International Human Rights Day protest.
2/12/19 Financial Secretary Paul Chan forecasts a budget deficit in this fiscal year.
28/11/19 US President Donald Trump signs the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act.
25/11/19 The pro-democracy camp wins a majority of seats in the District Councils.

Data Analysis

The latest survey shows that the 10 most frequently named political figures were Carrie Lam, Donald Tsang, Tung Chee-hwa, Leung Chun-ying, Regina Ip, Martin Lee, Anson Chan, John Tsang, Jasper Tsang and Leung Kwok-hung, followed by Roy Kwong, Alvin Yeung, Starry Lee, Paul Chan, Henry Tang, Tanya Chan, Matthew Cheung, Joshua Wong, Sophia Chan and Ann Chiang as rank eleventh to twentieth respectively. Among them, the percentage of respondents that mentioned Sophia Chan has registered new record high. Compared to half a year ago, regardless of their popularities, 7 political figures remain in the top 10. Roy Kwong, Claudia Mo and Alvin Yeung have fallen out of the top 10 list and replaced by John Tsang, Jasper Tsang and Leung Kwok-hung. Based on the results of the past 10 surveys, Carrie Lam, Leung Chun-ying, Donald Tsang, Tung Chee-hwa, Regina Ip and Leung Kwok-hung are people’s most familiar political figures in the long run.

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