2021年1月19日
香港民意研究所發佈會 - 傳媒參考資料
發佈會回顧
民研計劃發放五項核心社會指標
特別宣佈
香港民意研究計劃（香港民研）前身為香港大學民意研究計劃（港大民研）。公報內的「民研計劃」指的可以是香港民研或其前身港大民研。
公報簡要
民研計劃於一月初由真實訪問員以隨機抽樣電話訪問方式成功訪問了1,000名香港居民。調查顯示，以0至10分評價，市民對全部五項核心社會指標的評分繼續低於5分，由高至低分別是「自由」、「繁榮」、「安定」、「法治」和「民主」，得分分別為4.45、4.09、4.04、3.80和3.56分。相比一個月前，所有指標皆錄得輕微跌幅，當中「繁榮」指標再創1997年有紀錄以來新低。調查的實效回應比率為58.5%。在95%置信水平下，調查的評分誤差不超過+/-0.28。
樣本資料
| 調查日期 | ： | 4-8/1/2021 |
| 調查方法 | ： | 由真實訪問員進行隨機抽樣電話訪問 |
| 訪問對象 | ： | 18歲或以上操粵語的香港居民 |
| 成功樣本數目[1] | ： | 1,000 (包括492個固網及508個手機樣本) |
| 實效回應比率 | ： | 58.5% |
| 抽樣誤差[2] | ： | 在95%置信水平下，評分誤差不超過+/-0.28 |
| 加權方法 | ： | 按照政府統計處提供的統計數字以「反覆多重加權法」作出調整。全港人口年齡及性別分佈統計數字來自《二零一九年年中人口數字》，而教育程度（最高就讀程度）及經濟活動身分統計數字則來自《香港的女性及男性 - 主要統計數字》（2019年版）。 |
[1] 數字為調查的總樣本數目，個別題目則可能只涉及次樣本。有關數字請參閱下列數表內列出的樣本數目。
[2] 此公報中所有誤差數字均以95%置信水平計算。95%置信水平，是指倘若以不同隨機樣本重複進行有關調查100次，則95次各自計算出的誤差範圍會包含人口真實數字。由於調查數字涉及抽樣誤差，傳媒引用百分比數字時，應避免使用小數點，在引用評分數字時，則可以使用一個小數點。
最新數據
以下是五項核心社會指標的最新數字：
| 調查日期 | 31/8-4/9/20 | 19-22/10/20 | 9-13/11/20 | 7-10/12/20 | 4-8/1/21 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 590-618 | 575-632 | 579-634 | 602-609 | 594-604 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 58.4% | 62.2% | 63.9% | 70.0% | 58.5% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及誤差 | -- |
| 自由指標 | 4.13[3] | 4.60[3] | 4.60 | 4.68 | 4.45+/-0.27 | -0.23 |
| 繁榮指標 | 4.15 | 4.30 | 4.57[3] | 4.11[3] | 4.09+/-0.22 | -0.02 |
| 安定指標 | 3.63 | 4.15[3] | 4.15 | 4.17 | 4.04+/-0.24 | -0.12 |
| 法治指標 | 3.41[3] | 3.82[3] | 4.05 | 4.01 | 3.80+/-0.25 | -0.21 |
| 民主指標 | 3.49 | 3.61 | 3.74 | 3.85 | 3.56+/-0.28 | -0.29 |
[3] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
以0至10分評價，市民對全部五項核心社會指標的評分繼續低於5分，由高至低分別是「自由」、「繁榮」、「安定」、「法治」和「民主」，得分分別為4.45、4.09、4.04、3.80和3.56分。相比一個月前，所有指標皆錄得輕微跌幅，當中「繁榮」指標再創1997年有紀錄以來新低。
民意日誌
民研計劃於2007年開始與慧科訊業有限公司合作，由慧科訊業按照民研計劃設計的分析方法，將每日大事記錄傳送至民研計劃，經民研計劃核實後成為「民意日誌」。
由於本新聞公報所涉及的部分調查項目，上次調查日期為7-10/12/2020，而今次調查日期則為4-8/1/2021，因此是次公報中的「民意日誌」項目便以上述日期為依歸，讓讀者作出比較。以涵蓋率不下25%本地報章每日頭條新聞和報社評論計，在上述期間發生的相關大事包括以下事件，讀者可以自行判斷有關事件有否影響各項民調數字：
| 6/1/21 | 警方以涉嫌違反國安法拘捕53名民主派初選相關人士 |
| 5/1/21 | 馬道立指倡議司法機構改革須有細節及理據 |
| 4/1/21 | 政府宣布延長防疫措施，中小學及幼稚園暫停面授課至農曆年假 |
| 2/1/21 | 政府不排除強制市民使用「安心出行」應用程式 |
| 2/1/21 | 政府預料最快可於2月為市民接種疫苗 |
| 31/12/20 | 終審法院受理律政司上訴，黎智英還押候訊 |
| 30/12/20 | 12港人案中十人被判囚七個月至三年，兩名未成年者移交香港 |
| 28/12/20 | 大廈污水驗出新冠病毒，政府實施強制檢測 |
| 26/12/20 | 聯合醫院爆發新冠肺炎疫情 |
| 25/12/20 | 黎智英獲准保釋，禁離家受訪發文 |
| 23/12/20 | 政府宣布設立疫苗保障基金，並讓市民選擇接種哪款疫苗 |
| 21/12/20 | 英國出現變種新冠病毒，港府禁止英國客機來港 |
| 17/12/20 | 政府推出第四輪防疫抗疫基金 |
| 12/12/20 | 黎智英被加控「勾結外國或境外勢力危害國家安全」罪 |
| 11/12/20 | 政府達成新冠疫苗採購協議，疫苗最快1月抵港並開始接種 |
| 8/12/20 | 政府再收緊防疫措施，新增禁足及強制檢測權力 |
數據分析
調查顯示，以0至10分評價，市民對全部五項核心社會指標的評分繼續低於5分，由高至低分別是「自由」、「繁榮」、「安定」、「法治」和「民主」，得分分別為4.45、4.09、4.04、3.80和3.56分。相比一個月前，所有指標皆錄得輕微跌幅，當中「繁榮」指標再創1997年有紀錄以來新低。
January 19, 2021
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference - Press Materials
POP releases five core social indicators
Special Announcement
The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.
Abstract
POP successfully interviewed 1,000 Hong Kong residents by a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in early January. Our survey shows that, on a scale of 0 to 10, people’s ratings on all five core social indicators continue to be lower than 5 marks. Ranked from the highest to the lowest are “freedom”, “prosperity”, “stability”, “rule of law” and “democracy”. Their scores are 4.45, 4.09, 4.04, 3.80 and 3.56 respectively. Compared with a month ago, all social indicators have declined slightly, of which the rating of “prosperity” has again registered a new low since records began in 1997. The effective response rate of the survey is 58.5%. The maximum sampling error of ratings is +/-0.28 at 95% confidence level.
Contact Information
| Date of survey | : | 4-8/1/2021 |
| Survey method | : | Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers |
| Target population | : | Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above |
| Sample size[1] | : | 1,000 (including 492 landline and 508 mobile samples) |
| Effective response rate | : | 58.5% |
| Sampling error[2] | : | Sampling error of ratings not more than +/-0.28 at 95% conf. level |
| Weighting method | : | Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2019”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2019 Edition)”. |
[1] This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.
[2] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
Latest Figures
Herewith the latest figures of the five core social indicators:
| Date of survey | 31/8-4/9/20 | 19-22/10/20 | 9-13/11/20 | 7-10/12/20 | 4-8/1/21 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 590-618 | 575-632 | 579-634 | 602-609 | 594-604 | -- |
| Response rate | 58.4% | 62.2% | 63.9% | 70.0% | 58.5% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Degree of freedom | 4.13[3] | 4.60[3] | 4.60 | 4.68 | 4.45+/-0.27 | -0.23 |
| Degree of prosperity | 4.15 | 4.30 | 4.57[3] | 4.11[3] | 4.09+/-0.22 | -0.02 |
| Degree of stability | 3.63 | 4.15[3] | 4.15 | 4.17 | 4.04+/-0.24 | -0.12 |
| Compliance with the rule of law | 3.41[3] | 3.82[3] | 4.05 | 4.01 | 3.80+/-0.25 | -0.21 |
| Degree of democracy | 3.49 | 3.61 | 3.74 | 3.85 | 3.56+/-0.28 | -0.29 |
[3] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
On a scale of 0 to 10, people’s ratings on all five core social indicators continue to be lower than 5 marks. Ranked from the highest to the lowest are “freedom”, “prosperity”, “stability”, “rule of law” and “democracy”. Their scores are 4.45, 4.09, 4.04, 3.80 and 3.56 respectively. Compared with a month ago, all social indicators have declined slightly, of which the rating of “prosperity” has again registered a new low since records began in 1997.
Opinion Daily
In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.
For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 7 to 10 December, 2020 while this survey was conducted from 4 to 8 January, 2021. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
| 6/1/21 | Police arrests 53 democrats involved in the pro-democracy primaries who allegedly violated the national security law. |
| 5/1/21 | Geoffrey Ma says details and justifications are needed to call for judicial reform. |
| 4/1/21 | The government announces extension of anti-epidemic measures. Face-to-face classes are suspended in kindergartens, primary and secondary schools until the Lunar New Year holidays. |
| 2/1/21 | The government does not rule out mandatory use of the “LeaveHomeSafe” app. |
| 2/1/21 | The government expects to provide vaccinations to the public in February at the earliest. |
| 31/12/20 | The Court of Final Appeal grants leave to appeal to the Department of Justice. Jimmy Lai is remanded in custody. |
| 30/12/20 | Ten among the 12 Hong Kong people case are sentenced to 7 months to 3 years in prison, while two minors are transferred to Hong Kong. |
| 28/12/20 | Mandatory testing is ordered after coronavirus is detected in the sewage from a building. |
| 26/12/20 | Coronavirus outbreak occurs in United Christian Hospital. |
| 25/12/20 | Jimmy Lai is granted bail, but barred from leaving home, giving interviews and publishing articles. |
| 23/12/20 | The government sets up indemnity fund for vaccine and lets citizens choose which type of vaccine to take. |
| 21/12/20 | New strains of COVID-19 virus are found in the UK. The Hong Kong government bans passenger flights from the UK. |
| 17/12/20 | The government launches the fourth round of the Anti-epidemic Fund. |
| 12/12/20 | Jimmy Lai is additionally charged with “collusion with a foreign country or with external elements to endanger national security”. |
| 11/12/20 | The government has made procurement deals on COVID-19 vaccine and expects arrival and vaccination in January the earliest. |
| 8/12/20 | The government tightens anti-epidemic measures again and empower authorities to impose lockdown and mandatory testing. |
Data Analysis
The latest survey shows that, on a scale of 0 to 10, people’s ratings on all five core social indicators continue to be lower than 5 marks. Ranked from the highest to the lowest are “freedom”, “prosperity”, “stability”, “rule of law” and “democracy”. Their scores are 4.45, 4.09, 4.04, 3.80 and 3.56 respectively. Compared with a month ago, all social indicators have declined slightly, of which the rating of “prosperity” has again registered a new low since records began in 1997.
