2021年2月2日
香港民意研究所發佈會 – 傳媒參考資料
發佈會回顧
民研計劃發放兩岸政治人物民望
特別宣佈
香港民意研究計劃（香港民研）前身為香港大學民意研究計劃（港大民研）。公報內的「民研計劃」指的可以是香港民研或其前身港大民研。
公報簡要
民研計劃於一月由真實訪問員以隨機抽樣電話訪問方式，分兩階段成功訪問了1,000和1,011名香港居民。最新調查顯示，在十位香港市民最熟悉的當今中國及台灣領導人之中，以支持度排名，朱鎔基名列首位，得67.7分；溫家寶、胡錦濤和李克強名列第二至四位；蔡英文、習近平、馬英九和江澤民位列第五至八位。韓國瑜和陳水扁則佔第九至十位。相比上次調查，朱鎔基、溫家寶、胡錦濤、李克強、習近平、馬英九、韓國瑜及陳水扁的評分顯著上升，而蔡英文的評分則顯著下降。其中陳水扁的評分錄得2005年以來新高。王岐山和蘇貞昌分別得53.3及40.2分，但由於認知率較低而被剔除。評分調查的實效回應比率為67.2%。在95%置信水平下，調查的評分誤差不超過+/-3.4。
樣本資料
| 提名階段 | 評分階段 | ||
| 調查日期 | ： | 4-8/1/2021 | 18-22/1/2021 |
| 成功樣本數目[1] | ： | 1,000 (包括492個固網及508個手機樣本) |
1,011 (包括509個固網及502個手機樣本) |
| 實效回應比率 | ： | 58.5% | 67.2% |
| 調查方法 | ： | 由真實訪問員進行隨機抽樣電話訪問 | |
| 訪問對象 | ： | 18歲或以上操粵語的香港居民 | |
| 抽樣誤差[2] | ： | 在95%置信水平下，評分誤差不超過+/-3.4 | |
| 加權方法 | ： | 按照政府統計處提供的統計數字以「反覆多重加權法」作出調整。全港人口年齡及性別分佈統計數字來自《二零一九年年中人口數字》，而教育程度（最高就讀程度）及經濟活動身分統計數字則來自《香港的女性及男性 - 主要統計數字》（2019年版）。 | |
[1]數字為調查的總樣本數目，個別題目則可能只涉及次樣本。有關數字請參閱下列數表內列出的樣本數目。
[2]此公報中所有誤差數字均以95%置信水平計算。95%置信水平，是指倘若以不同隨機樣本重複進行有關調查100次，則95次各自計算出的誤差範圍會包含人口真實數字。由於調查數字涉及抽樣誤差，傳媒引用百分比數字時，應避免使用小數點，在引用評分數字時，則可以使用一個小數點。
最新數據
在提名調查中，被訪者可在未經提示下說出最多10名最熟悉的當今中國及台灣領導人，首12位最多被訪者提及的則被納入評分調查。在評分調查中，被訪者就個別政治人物以0至100分進行評分，0分代表絕對不支持，100分代表絕對支持，50分為一半半。統計結果後，認知度最低的再被剔除，之後再按支持度由高至低順序排列，得出十大兩岸政治人物。以下是十大兩岸政治人物的最新評分，按評分倒序排列[3]：
| 調查日期 | 17-19/7/19 | 14-15/1/20 | 22-24/7/20 | 18-22/1/21 | 最新變化 | |
| 樣本數目[4] | 557-690 | 508 | 510 | 541-649 | -- | |
| 回應比率 | 59.8% | 57.7% | 56.5% | 67.2% | -- | |
| 最新結果[5] | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及誤差 | 認知率 | -- |
| 朱鎔基 | 65.3{1} | 59.0{1}[6] | 61.6{1} | 67.7+/-2.3{1} | 80.1% | +6.1[6] |
| 溫家寶 | 57.2{2} | 51.7{3}[6] | 54.4{3} | 61.9+/-2.2{2} | 83.6% | +7.6[6] |
| 胡錦濤 | 53.0{4}[6] | 48.4{4}[6] | 51.1{4} | 58.0+/-2.2{3} | 83.7% | +6.9[6] |
| 李克強 | 50.5{5}[6] | 44.6{6}[6] | 46.4{5} | 54.5+/-2.6{4} | 83.4% | +8.1[6] |
| 蔡英文 | 47.4{6}[6] | 57.6{2}[6] | 57.6{2} | 52.8+/-2.8{5} | 91.3% | -4.8[6] |
| 習近平 | 47.1{7}[6] | 39.9{7}[6] | 40.7{8} | 50.9+/-3.1{6} | 94.6% | +10.2[6] |
| 馬英九 | 53.2{3}[6] | 44.8{5}[6] | 45.9{7} | 50.7+/-2.4{7} | 84.1% | +4.7[6] |
| 江澤民 | 43.8{8} | 38.3{8}[6] | 46.2{6} | 49.1+/-2.4{8} | 80.8% | +2.9 |
| 韓國瑜 | 40.1[7] | 28.6{9}[6] | 24.6{9} | 33.5+/-2.8{9} | 64.9% | +8.9[6] |
| 陳水扁 | 22.8{10} | 22.9{10} | 23.1{10} | 27.3+/-2.0{10} | 85.5% | +4.1[6] |
| 王岐山 | -- | -- | -- | 53.3+/-3.4[7] | 56.5% | -- |
| 蘇貞昌 | -- | -- | -- | 40.2+/-2.8[7] | 49.4% | -- |
| 李登輝 | 38.2{9} | 37.0[7] | 36.7[7] | -- | -- | -- |
| 韓正 | 41.9[7] | -- | 33.2[7] | -- | -- | -- |
| 宋楚瑜 | -- | 32.0[7] | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 李鵬 | 38.5{9} | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
[3]如四捨五入後的數字相同，則會再考慮小數點後的數字。
[4]民研計劃在2020年3月前彙報的次樣本數目為加權數字，2020年3月開始則以原始數字彙報。
[5]括弧{ }內數字為排名。
[6]該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
[7]於評分調查認知率較低。
最新調查顯示，在十位香港市民最熟悉的當今中國及台灣領導人之中，以支持度排名，朱鎔基名列首位，得67.7分；溫家寶、胡錦濤和李克強名列第二至四位，得61.9、58.0及54.5分；蔡英文、習近平、馬英九和江澤民分別得52.8、50.9、50.7及49.1分，位列第五至八位。韓國瑜和陳水扁則分別得33.5及27.3分，佔第九至十位。相比上次調查，朱鎔基、溫家寶、胡錦濤、李克強、習近平、馬英九、韓國瑜及陳水扁的評分顯著上升，而蔡英文的評分則顯著下降。其中陳水扁的評分錄得2005年以來新高。王岐山和蘇貞昌分別得53.3及40.2分，但由於認知率較低而被剔除。
須要說明，躋身「十大兩岸政治人物」的先決條件是香港巿民的熟悉程度，然後再按支持度排名。「十大」以外的兩岸政治人物，支持度可以很高或很低，但由於並非巿民最熟悉的人物，所以不在榜內。
民意日誌
民研計劃於2007年開始與慧科訊業有限公司合作，由慧科訊業按照民研計劃設計的分析方法，將每日大事記錄傳送至民研計劃，經民研計劃核實後成為「民意日誌」。
由於本新聞公報所涉及的調查項目，上次調查日期為22-24/7/2020，而今次調查日期則為18-21/1/2021，因此是次公報中的「民意日誌」項目便以上述日期為依歸，讓讀者作出比較。以涵蓋率不下25%本地報章每日頭條新聞和報社評論計，在上述期間發生的相關大事包括以下事件，讀者可以自行判斷有關事件有否影響各項民調數字：
| 17/11/20 | 林鄭月娥及張曉明於基本法頒布30周年法律高峰論壇發表演說 |
| 11/11/20 | 人大常委取消4名民主派立法會議員資格 |
| 9/11/20 | 消息指人大常委將取消民主派立法會議員資格 |
| 6/11/20 | 國務院副總理韓正與林鄭月娥會晤 |
| 1/11/20 | 警方以涉嫌違反權力及特權法拘捕6名民主派議員 |
| 29/10/20 | 中共五中全會通過「十四五」規劃 |
| 23/10/20 | 習近平出席抗美援朝周年紀念大會並發表演說 |
| 14/10/20 | 習近平於深圳發表演說 |
| 13/10/20 | 習近平出席深圳經濟特區成立慶祝活動 |
| 12/10/20 | 林鄭月娥押後施政報告 |
| 10/10/20 | 警方以涉嫌協助現被關押深圳的12名港人偷渡拘捕9人 |
| 30/9/20 | 駱惠寧、董建華及香港高官慶祝中華人民共和國成立七十一周年 |
| 12/9/20 | 12名香港青年被扣押深圳逾兩周，被捕人士家屬召開記者會 |
| 27/8/20 | 中國海警於8月23日截獲赴台快艇，拘捕12名香港青年 |
| 11/8/20 | 人大常委決定現屆立法會繼續履行職責不少於一年 |
| 10/8/20 | 警方引用國安法搜查壹傳媒，並拘捕黎智英及周庭等人 |
| 9/8/20 | 傳媒繼續報道美國制裁11名中港官員 |
| 8/8/20 | 香港政府發表聲明譴責美國制裁11名中港官員 |
| 2/8/20 | 傳媒繼續報導國家衛生健康委員會首批人員扺港 |
數據分析
最新調查顯示，在十位香港市民最熟悉的當今中國及台灣領導人之中，以支持度排名，朱鎔基名列首位，得67.7分；溫家寶、胡錦濤和李克強名列第二至四位；蔡英文、習近平、馬英九和江澤民位列第五至八位。韓國瑜和陳水扁則佔第九至十位。相比上次調查，朱鎔基、溫家寶、胡錦濤、李克強、習近平、馬英九、韓國瑜及陳水扁的評分顯著上升，而蔡英文的評分則顯著下降。其中陳水扁的評分錄得2005年以來新高。王岐山和蘇貞昌分別得53.3及40.2分，但由於認知率較低而被剔除。
February 2, 2021
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials
Press Conference Live
POP releases popularity of cross-strait political figures
Special Announcement
The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.
Abstract
POP successfully interviewed 1,000 and 1,011 Hong Kong residents in a two-stage random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in January. The latest survey revealed that, among the ten Mainland China and Taiwan political figures most well-known to Hong Kong people, Zhu Rongji ranked first in terms of popularity rating, attaining 67.7 marks. The 2nd to 4th ranks went to Wen Jiabao, Hu Jintao and Li Keqiang. Tsai Ing-wen, Xi Jinping, Ma Ying-jeou and Jiang Zemin occupied the 5th to 8th ranks. The 9th to 10th ranks fell to Han Kuo-yu and Chen Shui-bian. Compared to the previous survey, the ratings of Zhu Rongji, Wen Jiabao, Hu Jintao, Li Keqiang, Xi Jinping, Ma Ying-jeou, Han Kuo-yu and Chen Shui-bian have increased significantly, while the rating of Tsai Ing-wen has dropped significantly. The rating of Chen Shui-Bian has reached a record high since 2005. Wang Qishan and Su Tseng-chang obtained support ratings of 53.3 and 40.2 marks respectively, but they were dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates. The effective response rate of the rating survey is 67.2%. The maximum sampling error of ratings is +/-3.4 at 95% confidence level.
Contact Information
| Naming stage | Rating stage | ||
| Date of survey | : | 4-8/1/2021 | 18-22/1/2021 |
| Sample size[1] | : | 1,000 (including 492 landline and 508 mobile samples) | 1,011 (including 509 landline and 502 mobile samples) |
| Effective response rate | : | 58.5% | 67.2% |
| Survey method | : | Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers | |
| Target population | : | Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above | |
| Sampling error[2] | : | Sampling error of ratings not more than +/-3.4 at 95% conf. level | |
| Weighting method | : | Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2019”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2019 Edition)”. | |
[1]This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.
[2]All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
Latest Figures
In the naming survey, respondents could name, unprompted, up to 10 contemporary leaders in China or Taiwan whom they knew best. The top 12 nominees then entered the rating survey. In the rating survey, respondents were asked to rate individual political figures using a 0-100 scale, where 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom ones in terms of recognition rate were dropped; the remaining 10 were then ranked according to their support ratings to become the top 10 cross-strait political figures. Recent ratings of the top 10 cross-strait political figures are summarized below, in descending order of support ratings[3]:
| Date of survey | 17-19/7/19 | 14-15/1/20 | 22-24/7/20 | 18-22/1/21 | Latest change | |
| Sample size[4] | 557-690 | 508 | 510 | 541-649 | -- | |
| Response rate | 59.8% | 57.7% | 56.5% | 67.2% | -- | |
| Latest findings[5] | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | Recognition rate | -- |
| Zhu Rongji | 65.3{1} | 59.0{1}[6] | 61.6{1} | 67.7+/-2.3{1} | 80.1% | +6.1[6] |
| Wen Jiabao | 57.2{2} | 51.7{3}[6] | 54.4{3} | 61.9+/-2.2{2} | 83.6% | +7.6[6] |
| Hu Jintao | 53.0{4}[6] | 48.4{4}[6] | 51.1{4} | 58.0+/-2.2{3} | 83.7% | +6.9[6] |
| Li Keqiang | 50.5{5}[6] | 44.6{6}[6] | 46.4{5} | 54.5+/-2.6{4} | 83.4% | +8.1[6] |
| Tsai Ing-wen | 47.4{6}[6] | 57.6{2}[6] | 57.6{2} | 52.8+/-2.8{5} | 91.3% | -4.8[6] |
| Xi Jinping | 47.1{7}[6] | 39.9{7}[6] | 40.7{8} | 50.9+/-3.1{6} | 94.6% | +10.2[6] |
| Ma Ying-jeou | 53.2{3}[6] | 44.8{5}[6] | 45.9{7} | 50.7+/-2.4{7} | 84.1% | +4.7[6] |
| Jiang Zemin | 43.8{8} | 38.3{8}[6] | 46.2{6} | 49.1+/-2.4{8} | 80.8% | +2.9 |
| Han Kuo-yu | 40.1[7] | 28.6{9}[6] | 24.6{9} | 33.5+/-2.8{9} | 64.9% | +8.9[6] |
| Chen Shui-bian | 22.8{10} | 22.9{10} | 23.1{10} | 27.3+/-2.0{10} | 85.5% | +4.1[6] |
| Wang Qishan | -- | -- | -- | 53.3+/-3.4[7] | 56.5% | -- |
| Su Tseng-chang | -- | -- | -- | 40.2+/-2.8[7] | 49.4% | -- |
| Lee Teng-hui | 38.2{9} | 37.0[7] | 36.7[7] | -- | -- | -- |
| Han Zheng | 41.9[7] | -- | 33.2[7] | -- | -- | -- |
| Soong Chu-yu | -- | 32.0[7] | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Li Peng | 38.5{9} | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
[3]If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.
[4]Before March 2020, weighted count was used to report subsample size. Starting from March 2020, raw count was used instead.
[5]Numbers in curly brackets { } indicate the rankings.
[6]The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
[7]Recognition rates were comparatively low in the rating survey.
The latest survey revealed that, among the ten Mainland China and Taiwan political figures most well-known to Hong Kong people, Zhu Rongji ranked first in terms of popularity rating, attaining 67.7 marks. The 2nd to 4th ranks went to Wen Jiabao, Hu Jintao and Li Keqiang with scores of 61.9, 58.0 and 54.5 marks respectively. Tsai Ing-wen, Xi Jinping, Ma Ying-jeou and Jiang Zemin occupied the 5th to 8th ranks with 52.8, 50.9, 50.7 and 49.1 marks correspondingly. The 9th to 10th ranks fell to Han Kuo-yu and Chen Shui-bian with respective scores of 33.5 and 27.3 marks. Compared to the previous survey, the rating of Zhu Rongji, Wen Jiabao, Hu Jintao, Li Keqiang, Xi Jinping, Ma Ying-jeou, Han Kuo-yu and Chen Shui-bian has increased significantly, while the rating of Tsai Ing-wen has dropped significantly. The rating of Chen Shui-Bian has reached a record high since 2005. Wang Qishan and Su Tseng-chang obtained support ratings of 53.3 and 40.2 marks respectively, but they were dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates.
It should be noted that our list of “top 10 cross-strait political figures” only includes those best known to the Hong Kong public, ranked according to their support ratings. Other political figures may have very high or low support ratings, but they are excluded from the list because they are relatively less well-known.
Opinion Daily
In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.
For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 22 to 24 July, 2020 while this survey was conducted from 18 to 21 January, 2021. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
| 17/11/20 | Carrie Lam and Zhang Xiaoming deliver speech at the Basic Law 30th Anniversary Legal Summit. |
| 11/11/20 | NPCSC disqualifies 4 democrats in LegCo. |
| 9/11/20 | Sources say NPCSC will disqualify democrats in LegCo. |
| 6/11/20 | Vice-Premier of the State Council Han Zheng meets Carrie Lam. |
| 1/11/20 | Police arrests 6 democrats who allegedly violated the LegCo Powers and Privileges Ordinance. |
| 29/10/20 | The fifth plenary session of the Communist Party of China Central Committee passes the 15th Five-Year Plan. |
| 23/10/20 | Xi Jinping attends anniversary event of the Korean War and delivers a speech. |
| 14/10/20 | Xi Jinping delivers a speech in Shenzhen. |
| 13/10/20 | Xi Jinping attends anniversary celebration of the establishment of the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone. |
| 12/10/20 | Carrie Lam postpones Policy Address. |
| 10/10/20 | Police arrests 9 people on suspicion of helping the 12 Hong Kong people now being detained in Shenzhen flee Hong Kong. |
| 30/9/20 | Luo Huining, Tung Chee-hwa and principal officials of Hong Kong celebrates the 71st anniversary of the founding of the PRC. |
| 12/9/20 | Twelve Hong Kong youngsters have been detained in Shenzhen for over two weeks. Their family members hold a press conference. |
| 27/8/20 | China Coast Guard intercepted a speedboat to Taiwan on August 23 and arrested 12 young Hong Kong people. |
| 11/8/20 | The NPCSC decides that the current Legislative Council shall continue to discharge duties for no less than one year. |
| 10/8/20 | Police searches Next Media and arrests Jimmy Lai, Agnes Chow and other people under national security law. |
| 9/8/20 | Media continues to report on US sanction on 11 Chinese or Hong Kong government officials. |
| 8/8/20 | The Hong Kong government issues statement condemning US sanction on 11 Chinese or Hong Kong government officials. |
| 2/8/20 | Media continues to report on the arrival of the first team from the National Health Commission. |
Data Analysis
The latest survey revealed that, among the ten Mainland China and Taiwan political figures most well-known to Hong Kong people, Zhu Rongji ranked first in terms of popularity rating, attaining 67.7 marks. The 2nd to 4th ranks went to Wen Jiabao, Hu Jintao and Li Keqiang. Tsai Ing-wen, Xi Jinping, Ma Ying-jeou and Jiang Zemin occupied the 5th to 8th ranks. The 9th to 10th ranks fell to Han Kuo-yu and Chen Shui-bian. Compared to the previous survey, the rating of Zhu Rongji, Wen Jiabao, Hu Jintao, Li Keqiang, Xi Jinping, Ma Ying-jeou, Han Kuo-yu and Chen Shui-bian has increased significantly, while the rating of Tsai Ing-wen has dropped significantly. The rating of Chen Shui-Bian has reached a record high since 2005. Wang Qishan and Su Tseng-chang obtained support ratings of 53.3 and 40.2 marks respectively, but they were dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates.
