2021年2月9日
香港民意研究所發佈會 – 傳媒參考資料
發佈會回顧
以下是昨天梁啟智博士對於記者會寫的評論：(只有中文)
首先要和各位說一聲對不起，今天本來答應出席香港民意研究所的新聞發佈會，唯今早突然身體抱恙未能出席。我對研究所關於香港人對世界各地觀感的研究一直十分感興趣，可惜今日未能現場和各位分享我的觀察。以下是我對最新數據的一點見解。
如果要用一句話總結香港人過去半年對世界的觀感，我想大概是「香港對世界不再熱衷」。在各項香港人對各地人民和政府觀感的數據當中，除了個別重要的例外，普遍都走下坡；也就是說，表達反感比好感的有所增加。
在說其他國家和地區之前，先說說自己。香港人對香港人自己的評價，在過去半年大幅下降，好感淨值下跌了14個百分點。從歷史數據來看，香港人對自己的好感度是在反修例運動期間明顯扯高，現在是回到反修例運動之前的水平。
對香港政府方面，過去半年的好感度有明顯上升 -- 準確一點的說法是反感的程度略為下降，因為數據其實仍然是負數。相對於反修例運動前的數據，香港人對香港政府仍然相當討厭，只是討厭的程度沒有維持在最高的水平。憤怒是一種很難長久持續的情感，數據未能回答的是憤怒退卻後變成甚麼：是麻木？死心？還是離開？
對中國人民和政府的數據，是罕有有所提高的一組，現時的數據已差不多回到反修例運動之前的水平。當然，如果我們把時間尺度再拉遠一點，回到去和2008年的最高點比較，過去十多年來表達反感的比例是持續增加的。
香港人對澳門政府的好感度明顯提升，後面是否對香港政府抗疫工作的不滿？
香港人對台灣人民和政府的好感度有所回落，反修例運動期間的升幅消散，大體回到過去十年的平均水平。仔細分析下，對台灣持反感意見的比例沒有增加很多，主要是持好感意見的比例有大幅下降。比較之下，對英國的好感度下降，後面同時來自持反感意見的增加和持好感意見的減少；至於對美國的好感度下降，則主要來自持好感意見的減少而非反感意見的增加。
在反修例運動期間，不少香港人對世界各地的聲援有過很大期望。然而各地本身有他們的政治議程，當這些政治議程和香港人的主觀願望有出入時，便會出現期望落差，近期的美國政治正是一例。反過來，如果該地對香港事務採取比較進取的手段，又會得罪一班在香港的中國政府支持者。在這兩種力量夾擊之下，香港人對世界各地的觀感在過去半年變得沒有那麼熱衷。
對於以上的改變，我並不感到過於悲觀。香港人和世界各地人民之間的連結和情誼，不是一朝一夕可以建立或摧毀的。基於正確的認識，建立長遠的關係，對香港其實更為有利。平心而論，香港人對世界各地的認識到今天仍然有很多不足和片面之處。香港人對各地觀感的改變，除了反映當地對港態度的改變，可能更大程度反映各種香港人偏見的變遷。如果數據的走向和你的想法不一樣，何不退後半步想一想，為什麼有些香港人的想法會與我不同？
民研計劃發放香港巿民對各地人民及政府的觀感
特別宣佈
香港民意研究計劃（香港民研）前身為香港大學民意研究計劃（港大民研）。公報內的「民研計劃」指的可以是香港民研或其前身港大民研。
公報簡要
民研計劃於一月由真實訪問員以隨機抽樣電話訪問方式，分兩階段成功訪問了1,000和1,011名香港居民。調查顯示，香港巿民對各地人民的好感淨值，全部都高於對當地政府的好感淨值，當中對香港、美國、大陸和英國政府的好感淨值錄得負數。相比半年前，香港巿民對大陸人民以及對澳門和大陸政府的好感淨值顯著上升，而對美國、香港、台灣、英國和澳洲人民，以及對美國、英國、台灣和澳洲政府的好感淨值則顯著下跌。歷史紀錄方面，香港巿民對加拿大、澳洲、英國和美國人民的好感淨值創2007年有紀錄以來新低，對台灣人民的好感淨值創2012年以來新低，而對大陸人民的好感淨值則創2010年以來新高。政府方面，香港巿民對英國政府的好感淨值創1997年有紀錄以來新低，對加拿大政府的好感淨值亦創1997年以來新低，對澳洲政府的好感淨值創2000年以來新低，但對澳門政府的好感淨值則創2006年以來新高。評價階段調查的實效回應比率為67.2%。在95%置信水平下，調查的百分比誤差不超過+/-4%，淨值誤差不超過+/-6%。
樣本資料
| 提名階段 | 評價階段 | ||
| 調查日期 | ： | 4-8/1/2021 | 18-22/1/2021 |
| 成功樣本數目[1] | ： | 1,000 (包括492個固網及508個手機樣本) |
1,011 (包括509個固網及502個手機樣本) |
| 實效回應比率 | ： | 58.5% | 67.2% |
| 調查方法 | ： | 由真實訪問員進行隨機抽樣電話訪問 | |
| 訪問對象 | ： | 18歲或以上操粵語的香港居民 | |
| 抽樣誤差[2] | ： | 在95%置信水平下，百分比誤差不超過+/-4%，淨值誤差不超過+/-6% | |
| 加權方法 | ： | 按照政府統計處提供的統計數字以「反覆多重加權法」作出調整。全港人口年齡及性別分佈統計數字來自《二零一九年年中人口數字》，而教育程度（最高就讀程度）及經濟活動身分統計數字則來自《香港的女性及男性 - 主要統計數字》（2019年版）。 | |
[1]數字為調查的總樣本數目，個別題目則可能只涉及次樣本。有關數字請參閱下列數表內列出的樣本數目。
[2]此公報中所有誤差數字均以95%置信水平計算。95%置信水平，是指倘若以不同隨機樣本重複進行有關調查100次，則95次各自計算出的誤差範圍會包含人口真實數字。由於調查數字涉及抽樣誤差，傳媒引用百分比數字時，應避免使用小數點，在引用評分數字時，則可以使用一個小數點。
最新數據
在提名調查中，被訪者可在未經提示下說出最多10個除了香港、大陸、台灣和澳門以外最熟悉的國家或地區政府，首5位最多被訪者提及的則被納入評價調查。在評價調查中，被訪者就香港、大陸、台灣和澳門以及該五個國家或地區的人民及政府分別作出評價。以下是香港市民對兩岸四地人民及政府的觀感：
| 調查日期 | 17-19/7/19 | 20-21/1/20 | 17-20/8/20 | 18-22/1/21 | ||
| 樣本數目[3] | 592-633 | 505 | 655-672 | 821-834 | ||
| 回應比率 | 59.8% | 71.2% | 60.9% | 67.2% | ||
| 最新結果[4] | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及誤差 | 最新變化 | |
| 香港 | 人民好感 | 63%[5] | 57% | 55% | 44+/-3% | -10%[5] |
| 人民反感 | 12% | 13% | 6%[5] | 10+/-2% | +4%[5] | |
| 淨值 | 51%[5] | 44% | 49% | 34+/-5% | -14%[5] | |
| 政府好感 | 26%[5] | 13%[5] | 23%[5] | 20+/-3% | -3% | |
| 政府反感 | 58%[5] | 74%[5] | 61%[5] | 54+/-3% | -8%[5] | |
| 淨值 | -32%[5] | -61%[5] | -39%[5] | -34+/-6% | +5% | |
| 大陸 | 人民好感 | 30% | 30% | 32% | 36+/-3% | +4% |
| 人民反感 | 34% | 37% | 32% | 22+/-3% | -10%[5] | |
| 淨值 | -4% | -7% | <1% | 14+/-5% | +13%[5] | |
| 政府好感 | 25%[5] | 23% | 27% | 33+/-3% | +6%[5] | |
| 政府反感 | 51%[5] | 59%[5] | 52%[5] | 41+/-3% | -11%[5] | |
| 淨值 | -26%[5] | -36%[5] | -26%[5] | -9+/-6% | +17%[5] | |
| 台灣 | 人民好感 | 76%[5] | 74% | 68%[5] | 55+/-3% | -13%[5] |
| 人民反感 | 2%[5] | 4%[5] | 4% | 5+/-2% | +2% | |
| 淨值 | 75%[5] | 69% | 64% | 50+/-4% | -14%[5] | |
| 政府好感 | 52%[5] | 55% | 51% | 42+/-3% | -9%[5] | |
| 政府反感 | 19%[5] | 18% | 21% | 23+/-3% | +2% | |
| 淨值 | 33%[5] | 37% | 31% | 20+/-5% | -11%[5] | |
| 澳門 | 人民好感 | 62%[5] | 51%[5] | 50% | 50+/-4% | -- |
| 人民反感 | 3% | 9%[5] | 5%[5] | 2+/-1% | -3%[5] | |
| 淨值 | 60%[5] | 42%[5] | 45% | 48+/-4% | +3% | |
| 政府好感 | 43%[5] | 31%[5] | 45%[5] | 53+/-3% | +9%[5] | |
| 政府反感 | 23% | 35%[5] | 20%[5] | 8+/-2% | -12%[5] | |
| 淨值 | 20% | -4%[5] | 25%[5] | 46+/-4% | +21%[5] | |
[3]民研計劃在2020年3月前彙報的次樣本數目為加權數字，2020年3月開始則以原始數字彙報。
[4]數字採自五等量尺。
[5]該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
以下是香港市民對部分其他國家或地區的人民及政府的觀感，按對人民好感淨值倒序排列：
| 調查日期 | 17-19/7/19 | 20-21/1/20 | 17-20/8/20 | 18-22/1/21 | ||
| 樣本數目[6] | 598-616 | 505 | 667-700 | 820-827 | ||
| 回應比率 | 59.8% | 71.2% | 60.9% | 67.2% | ||
| 最新結果[7] | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及誤差 | 最新變化 | |
| 日本 | 人民好感 | 76%[8] | 71% | 59%[8] | 52+/-3% | -7%[8] |
| 人民反感 | 3%[8] | 7%[8] | 6% | 5+/-1% | -1% | |
| 淨值 | 73%[8] | 64%[8] | 53%[8] | 48+/-4% | -5% | |
| 政府好感 | 39%[8] | 46%[8] | 35%[8] | 30+/-3% | -5%[8] | |
| 政府反感 | 27% | 17%[8] | 17% | 15+/-2% | -3% | |
| 淨值 | 12%[8] | 29%[8] | 18%[8] | 16+/-5% | -2% | |
| 加拿大 | 人民好感 | -- | -- | -- | 34+/-3% | -- |
| 人民反感 | -- | -- | -- | 4+/-1% | -- | |
| 淨值 | -- | -- | -- | 30+/-4% | -- | |
| 政府好感 | -- | -- | -- | 27+/-3% | -- | |
| 政府反感 | -- | -- | -- | 16+/-3% | -- | |
| 淨值 | -- | -- | -- | 11+/-5% | -- | |
| 澳洲 | 人民好感 | -- | 54% | 43%[8] | 34+/-3% | -9%[8] |
| 人民反感 | -- | 4% | 6% | 4+/-1% | -2% | |
| 淨值 | -- | 50% | 37%[8] | 30+/-4% | -8%[8] | |
| 政府好感 | -- | 38% | 38% | 30+/-3% | -7%[8] | |
| 政府反感 | -- | 12% | 15% | 16+/-3% | -- | |
| 淨值 | -- | 26% | 22% | 15+/-5% | -8%[8] | |
| 英國 | 人民好感 | 63%[8] | 51%[8] | 42%[8] | 29+/-3% | -12%[8] |
| 人民反感 | 5% | 6% | 10%[8] | 11+/-2% | +1% | |
| 淨值 | 58%[8] | 44%[8] | 32%[8] | 19+/-4% | -13%[8] | |
| 政府好感 | 51% | 40%[8] | 37% | 24+/-3% | -12%[8] | |
| 政府反感 | 17% | 21% | 25% | 28+/-3% | +3% | |
| 淨值 | 34% | 19%[8] | 12% | -3+/-5% | -15%[8] | |
| 美國 | 人民好感 | 48%[8] | 47% | 38%[8] | 21+/-3% | -17%[8] |
| 人民反感 | 9%[8] | 12% | 14% | 20+/-3% | +6%[8] | |
| 淨值 | 39%[8] | 35% | 24%[8] | 2+/-4% | -23%[8] | |
| 政府好感 | 24%[8] | 33%[8] | 28% | 14+/-2% | -14%[8] | |
| 政府反感 | 48%[8] | 36%[8] | 41%[8] | 44+/-3% | +3% | |
| 淨值 | -24%[8] | -2%[8] | -13%[8] | -30+/-5% | -17%[8] | |
[6]民研計劃在2020年3月前彙報的次樣本數目為加權數字，2020年3月開始則以原始數字彙報。
[7]數字採自五等量尺。
[8]該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
最新調查顯示，香港巿民對各地人民的好感淨值，全部都高於對當地政府的好感淨值。對各地人民觀感方面，按好感淨值由高至低排列，分別是台灣、澳門、日本、香港、加拿大、澳洲、英國、大陸和美國。對各地政府觀感方面，按好感淨值由高至低排列，分別是澳門、台灣、日本、澳洲、加拿大、英國、大陸、美國和香港，當中對香港、美國、大陸和英國政府的好感淨值為負數。
相比半年前，香港巿民對大陸人民以及對澳門和大陸政府的好感淨值顯著上升，而對美國、香港、台灣、英國和澳洲人民，以及對美國、英國、台灣和澳洲政府的好感淨值則顯著下跌。
歷史紀錄方面，香港巿民對加拿大、澳洲、英國和美國人民的好感淨值創2007年有紀錄以來新低，對台灣人民的好感淨值創2012年以來新低，而對大陸人民的好感淨值則創2010年以來新高。政府方面，香港巿民對英國政府的好感淨值創1997年有紀錄以來新低，對加拿大政府的好感淨值亦創1997年以來新低，對澳洲政府的好感淨值創2000年以來新低，但對澳門政府的好感淨值則創2006年以來新高。
須要說明，躋身是次調查範圍的國家和地區，先決條件是香港巿民的熟悉程度。調查範圍以外的國家或地區，在香港巿民心目中的好感程度可以很高或很低，但由於並非香港巿民最熟悉的國家或地區，所以不在調查之列。
民意日誌
民研計劃於2007年開始與慧科訊業有限公司合作，由慧科訊業按照民研計劃設計的分析方法，將每日大事記錄傳送至民研計劃，經民研計劃核實後成為「民意日誌」。
由於本新聞公報所涉及的調查項目，上次調查日期為17-20/8/2020，而今次調查日期則為18-22/1/2021，因此是次公報中的「民意日誌」項目便以上述日期為依歸，讓讀者作出比較。以涵蓋率不下25%本地報章每日頭條新聞和報社評論計，在上述期間發生的相關大事包括以下事件，讀者可以自行判斷有關事件有否影響各項民調數字：
| 22/1/21 | 消息指政府將封鎖油麻地指定區域 |
| 20/1/21 | 美國總統拜登宣誓就職 |
| 15/1/21 | 政府對油麻地區內20幢大廈居民實施強制檢測 |
| 13/1/21 | 巴西當局公布科興疫苗整體有效率為50.4% |
| 7/1/21 | 美國國會確認拜登勝出總統大選，特朗普支持者闖入國會爆發衝突 |
| 6/1/21 | 警方以涉嫌違反國安法拘捕53名民主派初選相關人士 |
| 5/1/21 | 馬道立指倡議司法機構改革須有細節及理據 |
| 4/1/21 | 政府宣布延長防疫措施，中小學及幼稚園暫停面授課至農曆年假 |
| 2/1/21 | 政府不排除強制市民使用「安心出行」應用程式 |
| 2/1/21 | 政府預料最快可於2月為市民接種疫苗 |
| 31/12/20 | 終審法院受理律政司上訴，黎智英還押候訊 |
| 30/12/20 | 12港人案中十人被判囚七個月至三年，兩名未成年者移交香港 |
| 28/12/20 | 大廈污水驗出新冠病毒，政府實施強制檢測 |
| 25/12/20 | 黎智英獲准保釋，禁離家受訪發文 |
| 23/12/20 | 政府宣布設立疫苗保障基金，並讓市民選擇接種哪款疫苗 |
| 21/12/20 | 英國出現變種新冠病毒，港府禁止英國客機來港 |
| 17/12/20 | 政府推出第四輪防疫抗疫基金 |
| 12/12/20 | 黎智英被加控「勾結外國或境外勢力危害國家安全」罪 |
| 11/12/20 | 政府達成新冠疫苗採購協議，疫苗最快1月抵港並開始接種 |
| 8/12/20 | 政府再收緊防疫措施，新增禁足及強制檢測權力 |
| 5/12/20 | 國安法指定法官蘇惠德收到死亡恐嚇 |
| 3/12/20 | 黎智英被拒保釋，須還押候訊 |
| 2/12/20 | 前香港眾志成員黃之鋒、林朗彥及周庭被判囚7至13.5個月 |
| 30/11/20 | 政府宣布收緊防疫措施，設立熱線舉報違規行為 |
| 26/11/20 | 教育局宣布改革通識教育科 |
| 25/11/20 | 林鄭月娥發表施政報告 |
| 24/11/20 | 政府宣布收緊防疫措施，強制公眾場所展示安心出行二維碼 |
| 21/11/20 | 警方以涉嫌違反國安法資助分裂國家罪拘捕網台主持等3人 |
| 19/11/20 | 高等法院裁定警察不展示個人編號違反人權法 |
| 14/11/20 | 政府宣布收緊防疫措施，推行強制檢測 |
| 11/11/20 | 人大常委取消4名民主派立法會議員資格 |
| 8/11/20 | 拜登發表勝利演說 |
| 7/11/20 | 美國多間傳媒指拜登勝出大選，特朗普則指控選舉舞弊 |
| 6/11/20 | 國務院副總理韓正與林鄭月娥會晤 |
| 1/11/20 | 警方以涉嫌違反權力及特權法拘捕6名民主派議員 |
| 31/10/20 | 七名8.31暴動案被告被裁定無罪 |
| 29/10/20 | 中共五中全會通過「十四五」規劃 |
| 12/10/20 | 林鄭月娥押後施政報告 |
| 10/10/20 | 警方以涉嫌協助現被關押深圳的12名港人偷渡拘捕9人 |
| 6/10/20 | 教育局以專業失德為由取消一名小學教師註冊 |
| 2/10/20 | 特朗普夫婦確診新冠肺炎 |
| 1/10/20 | 警方於銅鑼灣等各區拘捕最少86名示威者 |
| 22/9/20 | 警方修改《警察通例》下「傳媒代表」定義 |
| 14/9/20 | 178萬人參與普及社區檢測計劃，發現32宗新個案 |
| 12/9/20 | 12名香港青年被扣押深圳逾兩周，被捕人士家屬召開記者會 |
| 11/9/20 | 死因庭陪審團裁定陳彥霖死因存疑 |
| 10/9/20 | 警方以在買賣壹傳媒股票時涉嫌詐騙及洗黑錢拘捕15人 |
| 3/9/20 | 普及社區檢測計劃從已驗的12.8萬個樣本中找出兩宗新個案 |
| 27/8/20 | 中國海警於8月23日截獲赴台快艇，拘捕12名香港青年 |
| 26/8/20 | 警方就7．21事件以暴動罪拘捕13名白衣人以外人士 |
| 19/8/20 | 香港失業率升至6.1% |
| 18/8/20 | 政府公布第二期保就業計劃 |
數據分析
最新調查顯示，香港巿民對各地人民的好感淨值，全部都高於對當地政府的好感淨值，當中對香港、美國、大陸和英國政府的好感淨值錄得負數。相比半年前，香港巿民對大陸人民以及對澳門和大陸政府的好感淨值顯著上升，而對美國、香港、台灣、英國和澳洲人民，以及對美國、英國、台灣和澳洲政府的好感淨值則顯著下跌。
歷史紀錄方面，香港巿民對加拿大、澳洲、英國和美國人民的好感淨值創2007年有紀錄以來新低，對台灣人民的好感淨值創2012年以來新低，而對大陸人民的好感淨值則創2010年以來新高。政府方面，香港巿民對英國政府的好感淨值創1997年有紀錄以來新低，對加拿大政府的好感淨值亦創1997年以來新低，對澳洲政府的好感淨值創2000年以來新低，但對澳門政府的好感淨值則創2006年以來新高。
February 9, 2021
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials
Press Conference Live
POP releases findings on Hong Kong people’s feelings
towards different peoples and governments
Special Announcement
The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.
Abstract
POP successfully interviewed 1,000 and 1,011 Hong Kong residents in a two-stage random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in January. Our survey shows that, in terms of net affinity, Hong Kong people feel more positively about all other peoples than their governments. Among them, the net affinity for the governments of Hong Kong, the United States, Mainland and the United Kingdom registered negative values. Compared to half a year ago, the net affinity of Hong Kong people towards the people of Mainland as well as the governments of Macau and Mainland have increased significantly, while that towards the peoples of the United States, Hong Kong, Taiwan, the United Kingdom and Australia, as well as the governments of the United States, the United Kingdom, Taiwan and Australia have all decreased significantly. Looking back at past records, the net affinity of Hong Kong people towards the peoples of Canada, Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States are at historical lows since records began in 2007, that towards the people of Taiwan is at its lowest since 2012, while that towards the people of Mainland is at its highest since 2010. As for the governments, the net affinity of Hong Kong people towards the government of the United Kingdom is at historical low since records began in 1997, that towards the government of Canada is also at its record low since 1997, that towards the government of Australia is at its lowest since 2000, while that towards the government of Macau has reached its new high since 2006. The effective response rate of the evaluation stage survey is 67.2%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4% and that of net values is +/-6% at 95% confidence level.
Contact Information
| Naming stage | Evaluation stage | ||
| Date of survey | : | 4-8/1/2021 | 18-22/1/2021 |
| Sample size[1] | : | 1,000 (including 492 landline and 508 mobile samples) |
1,011 (including 509 landline and 502 mobile samples) |
| Effective response rate | : | 58.5% | 67.2% |
| Survey method | : | Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers | |
| Target population | : | Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above | |
| Sampling error[2] | : | Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and that of net values not more than +/-6% at 95% conf. level | |
| Weighting method | : | Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2019”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2019 Edition)”. | |
[1]This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.
[2]All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
Latest Figures
In the naming survey, respondents could name, unprompted, up to 10 governments of countries or regions that they knew best apart from Hong Kong, Mainland, Taiwan and Macau. The top 5 nominees then entered the evaluation survey. In the evaluation survey, respondents were asked to rate their feeling towards the governments and peoples of Hong Kong, Mainland, Taiwan, Macau and the five countries or regions respectively. Hong Kong people’s feelings towards different governments and peoples are summarized as follows:
| Date of survey | 17-19/7/19 | 20-21/1/20 | 17-20/8/20 | 18-22/1/21 | ||
| Sample size[3] | 592-633 | 505 | 655-672 | 821-834 | ||
| Response rate | 59.8% | 71.2% | 60.9% | 67.2% | ||
| Latest findings[4] | Findings | Findings | Findings | Finding & error | Latest change | |
| Hong Kong | People Positive | 63%[5] | 57% | 55% | 44+/-3% | -10%[5] |
| People Negative | 12% | 13% | 6%[5] | 10+/-2% | +4%[5] | |
| Net value | 51%[5] | 44% | 49% | 34+/-5% | -14%[5] | |
| Government Positive | 26%[5] | 13%[5] | 23%[5] | 20+/-3% | -3% | |
| Government Negative | 58%[5] | 74%[5] | 61%[5] | 54+/-3% | -8%[5] | |
| Net value | -32%[5] | -61%[5] | -39%[5] | -34+/-6% | +5% | |
| Mainland | People Positive | 30% | 30% | 32% | 36+/-3% | +4% |
| People Negative | 34% | 37% | 32% | 22+/-3% | -10%[5] | |
| Net value | -4% | -7% | <1% | 14+/-5% | +13%[5] | |
| Government Positive | 25%[5] | 23% | 27% | 33+/-3% | +6%[5] | |
| Government Negative | 51%[5] | 59%[5] | 52%[5] | 41+/-3% | -11%[5] | |
| Net value | -26%[5] | -36%[5] | -26%[5] | -9+/-6% | +17%[5] | |
| Taiwan | People Positive | 76%[5] | 74% | 68%[5] | 55+/-3% | -13%[5] |
| People Negative | 2%[5] | 4%[5] | 4% | 5+/-2% | +2% | |
| Net value | 75%[5] | 69% | 64% | 50+/-4% | -14%[5] | |
| Government Positive | 52%[5] | 55% | 51% | 42+/-3% | -9%[5] | |
| Government Negative | 19%[5] | 18% | 21% | 23+/-3% | +2% | |
| Net value | 33%[5] | 37% | 31% | 20+/-5% | -11%[5] | |
| Macau | People Positive | 62%[5] | 51%[5] | 50% | 50+/-4% | -- |
| People Negative | 3% | 9%[5] | 5%[5] | 2+/-1% | -3%[5] | |
| Net value | 60%[5] | 42%[5] | 45% | 48+/-4% | +3% | |
| Government Positive | 43%[5] | 31%[5] | 45%[5] | 53+/-3% | +9%[5] | |
| Government Negative | 23% | 35%[5] | 20%[5] | 8+/-2% | -12%[5] | |
| Net value | 20% | -4%[5] | 25%[5] | 46+/-4% | +21%[5] | |
[3]Before March 2020, weighted count was used to report subsample size. Starting from March 2020, raw count was used instead.
[4]Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
[5]The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Hong Kong people’s feelings towards some other governments and peoples are summarized as follows, in descending order of net values towards the peoples:
| Date of survey | 17-19/7/19 | 20-21/1/20 | 17-20/8/20 | 18-22/1/21 | ||
| Sample size[6] | 598-616 | 505 | 667-700 | 820-827 | ||
| Response rate | 59.8% | 71.2% | 60.9% | 67.2% | ||
| Latest findings[7] | Findings | Findings | Findings | Finding & error | Latest change | |
| Japan | People Positive | 76%[8] | 71% | 59%[8] | 52+/-3% | -7%[8] |
| People Negative | 3%[8] | 7%[8] | 6% | 5+/-1% | -1% | |
| Net value | 73%[8] | 64%[8] | 53%[8] | 48+/-4% | -5% | |
| Government Positive | 39%[8] | 46%[8] | 35%[8] | 30+/-3% | -5%[8] | |
| Government Negative | 27% | 17%[8] | 17% | 15+/-2% | -3% | |
| Net value | 12%[8] | 29%[8] | 18%[8] | 16+/-5% | -2% | |
| Canada | People Positive | -- | -- | -- | 34+/-3% | -- |
| People Negative | -- | -- | -- | 4+/-1% | -- | |
| Net value | -- | -- | -- | 30+/-4% | -- | |
| Government Positive | -- | -- | -- | 27+/-3% | -- | |
| Government Negative | -- | -- | -- | 16+/-3% | -- | |
| Net value | -- | -- | -- | 11+/-5% | -- | |
| Australia | People Positive | -- | 54% | 43%[8] | 34+/-3% | -9%[8] |
| People Negative | -- | 4% | 6% | 4+/-1% | -2% | |
| Net value | -- | 50% | 37%[8] | 30+/-4% | -8%[8] | |
| Government Positive | -- | 38% | 38% | 30+/-3% | -7%[8] | |
| Government Negative | -- | 12% | 15% | 16+/-3% | -- | |
| Net value | -- | 26% | 22% | 15+/-5% | -8%[8] | |
| United Kingdom | People Positive | 63%[8] | 51%[8] | 42%[8] | 29+/-3% | -12%[8] |
| People Negative | 5% | 6% | 10%[8] | 11+/-2% | +1% | |
| Net value | 58%[8] | 44%[8] | 32%[8] | 19+/-4% | -13%[8] | |
| Government Positive | 51% | 40%[8] | 37% | 24+/-3% | -12%[8] | |
| Government Negative | 17% | 21% | 25% | 28+/-3% | +3% | |
| Net value | 34% | 19%[8] | 12% | -3+/-5% | -15%[8] | |
| United States | People Positive | 48%[8] | 47% | 38%[8] | 21+/-3% | -17%[8] |
| People Negative | 9%[8] | 12% | 14% | 20+/-3% | +6%[8] | |
| Net value | 39%[8] | 35% | 24%[8] | 2+/-4% | -23%[8] | |
| Government Positive | 24%[8] | 33%[8] | 28% | 14+/-2% | -14%[8] | |
| Government Negative | 48%[8] | 36%[8] | 41%[8] | 44+/-3% | +3% | |
| Net value | -24%[8] | -2%[8] | -13%[8] | -30+/-5% | -17%[8] | |
[6]Before March 2020, weighted count was used to report subsample size. Starting from March 2020, raw count was used instead.
[7]Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
[8]The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Our latest survey shows that, in terms of net affinity, Hong Kong people feel more positively about all other peoples than their governments. As regards people’s feeling towards different peoples, from high to low net affinity, the order goes: Taiwan, Macau, Japan, Hong Kong, Canada, Australia, the United Kingdom, Mainland and the United States. Regarding people’s feeling towards different governments, from high to low net affinity, the order goes: Macau, Taiwan, Japan, Australia, Canada, the United Kingdom, Mainland, the United States and Hong Kong. Among them, the net affinity for the governments of Hong Kong, the United States, Mainland and the United Kingdom are negative.
Compared to half a year ago, the net affinity of Hong Kong people towards the people of Mainland as well as the governments of Macau and Mainland have increased significantly, while that towards the peoples of the United States, Hong Kong, Taiwan, the United Kingdom and Australia, as well as the governments of the United States, the United Kingdom, Taiwan and Australia have all decreased significantly.
Looking back at past records, the net affinity of Hong Kong people towards the peoples of Canada, Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States are at historical lows since records began in 2007, that towards the people of Taiwan is at its lowest since 2012, while that towards the people of Mainland is at its highest since 2010. As for the governments, the net affinity of Hong Kong people towards the government of the United Kingdom is at historical low since records began in 1997, that towards the government of Canada is also at its record low since 1997, that towards the government of Australia is at its lowest since 2000, while that towards the government of Macau has reached its new high since 2006.
It should be noted, however, that our survey only covers regions and countries best known to Hong Kong people. Hong Kong people may well like or dislike other places much more, but because they are not the most well-known places, they do not appear on the list by design.
Opinion Daily
In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.
For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 17 to 20 August, 2020 while this survey was conducted from 18 to 22 January, 2021. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
| 22/1/21 | Sources say the government will lock down designated areas in Yau Ma Tei. |
| 20/1/21 | The US President Biden is sworn into office. |
| 15/1/21 | Mandatory testing is ordered for residents of 20 buildings in Yau Ma Tei. |
| 13/1/21 | Brazil authority announces that the general efficacy of Sinovac vaccine is 50.4%. |
| 7/1/21 | The US Congress confirms Biden’s victory in presidential election. Trump supporters break into the US Congress and conflicts occur. |
| 6/1/21 | Police arrests 53 democrats involved in the pro-democracy primaries who allegedly violated the national security law. |
| 5/1/21 | Geoffrey Ma says details and justifications are needed to call for judicial reform. |
| 4/1/21 | The government announces extension of anti-epidemic measures. Face-to-face classes are suspended in kindergartens, primary and secondary schools until the Lunar New Year holidays. |
| 2/1/21 | The government does not rule out mandatory use of the “LeaveHomeSafe” app. |
| 2/1/21 | The government expects to provide vaccinations to the public in February at the earliest. |
| 31/12/20 | The Court of Final Appeal grants leave to appeal to the Department of Justice. Jimmy Lai is remanded in custody. |
| 30/12/20 | Ten among the 12 Hong Kong people case are sentenced to 7 months to 3 years in prison, while two minors are transferred to Hong Kong. |
| 28/12/20 | Mandatory testing is ordered after coronavirus is detected in the sewage from a building. |
| 25/12/20 | Jimmy Lai is granted bail, but barred from leaving home, giving interviews and publishing articles. |
| 23/12/20 | The government sets up indemnity fund for vaccine and lets citizens choose which type of vaccine to take. |
| 21/12/20 | New strains of COVID-19 virus are found in the UK. The Hong Kong government bans passenger flights from the UK. |
| 17/12/20 | The government launches the fourth round of the Anti-epidemic Fund. |
| 12/12/20 | Jimmy Lai is additionally charged with “collusion with a foreign country or with external elements to endanger national security”. |
| 11/12/20 | The government has made procurement deals on COVID-19 vaccine and expects arrival and vaccination in January the earliest. |
| 8/12/20 | The government tightens anti-epidemic measures again and empower authorities to impose lockdown and mandatory testing. |
| 5/12/20 | Designated judge for national security cases Victor So receives death threat. |
| 3/12/20 | Jimmy Lai is denied bail and remanded in custody. |
| 2/12/20 | Former Demosistō member Joshua Wong, Ivan Lam and Agnes Chow are sentenced to 7 to 13.5 months in prison. |
| 30/11/20 | The government tightens anti-epidemic measures and sets up a hotline for reporting violations. |
| 26/11/20 | The Education Bureau introduces reforms to liberal studies. |
| 25/11/20 | Carrie Lam delivers her Policy Address. |
| 24/11/20 | The government tightens anti-epidemic measures and orders public venues to display QR codes for “Leave Home Safe”. |
| 21/11/20 | Police arrests 3 people including an online radio host who allegedly violated the national security law by providing financial assistance to secession. |
| 19/11/20 | The High Court rules that police officers not displaying their identification numbers violated the Bill of Rights. |
| 14/11/20 | The government tightens anti-epidemic measures and imposes mandatory testing. |
| 11/11/20 | NPCSC disqualifies 4 democrats in LegCo. |
| 8/11/20 | Biden gives victory speech. |
| 7/11/20 | Multiple US media calls the presidential election for Biden, but Trump makes claims of election fraud. |
| 6/11/20 | Vice-Premier of the State Council Han Zheng meets Carrie Lam. |
| 1/11/20 | Police arrests 6 democrats who allegedly violated the LegCo Powers and Privileges Ordinance. |
| 31/10/20 | Seven defendants accused of rioting on 31 August 2019 are found not guilty. |
| 29/10/20 | The fifth plenary session of the Communist Party of China Central Committee passes the 15th Five-Year Plan. |
| 12/10/20 | Carrie Lam postpones Policy Address. |
| 10/10/20 | Police arrests 9 people on suspicion of helping the 12 Hong Kong people now being detained in Shenzhen flee Hong Kong. |
| 6/10/20 | The Education Bureau deregisters a primary school teacher for professional misconduct. |
| 2/10/20 | Donald Trump and his wife test positive for COVID-19. |
| 1/10/20 | Police arrests at least 86 protesters in various districts including Causeway Bay. |
| 22/9/20 | Police changes the definition of “media representatives” under the Police General Orders. |
| 14/9/20 | The Universal Community Testing Programme ends with 1.78 million people participated and 32 new cases found. |
| 12/9/20 | Twelve Hong Kong youngsters have been detained in Shenzhen for over two weeks. Their family members hold a press conference. |
| 11/9/20 | The jury in the Coroner’s Court returns an open verdict in the death of Chan Yin-lam. |
| 10/9/20 | Police arrests 15 people on suspicion of defrauding and money laundering by trading Next Digital shares. |
| 3/9/20 | The Universal Community Testing Programme locates two new cases among about 128,000 tests conducted. |
| 27/8/20 | China Coast Guard intercepted a speedboat to Taiwan on August 23 and arrested 12 young Hong Kong people. |
| 26/8/20 | Police arrests 13 people who were not “people in white” for rioting in the 7.21 incident. |
| 19/8/20 | Unemployment rate in Hong Kong rises to 6.1%. |
| 18/8/20 | The government announces the second round of Employment Support Scheme. |
Data Analysis
Our latest survey shows that, in terms of net affinity, Hong Kong people feel more positively about all other peoples than their governments. Among them, the net affinity for the governments of Hong Kong, the United States, Mainland and the United Kingdom registered negative values. Compared to half a year ago, the net affinity of Hong Kong people towards the people of Mainland as well as the governments of Macau and Mainland have increased significantly, while that towards the peoples of the United States, Hong Kong, Taiwan, the United Kingdom and Australia, as well as the governments of the United States, the United Kingdom, Taiwan and Australia have all decreased significantly.
Looking back at past records, the net affinity of Hong Kong people towards the peoples of Canada, Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States are at historical lows since records began in 2007, that towards the people of Taiwan is at its lowest since 2012, while that towards the people of Mainland is at its highest since 2010. As for the governments, the net affinity of Hong Kong people towards the government of the United Kingdom is at historical low since records began in 1997, that towards the government of Canada is also at its record low since 1997, that towards the government of Australia is at its lowest since 2000, while that towards the government of Macau has reached its new high since 2006.
