2021年3月16日
香港民意研究所發佈會 – 傳媒參考資料
發佈會回顧
民研計劃發放特首及問責司局長民望數字
特別宣佈
香港民意研究計劃（香港民研）前身為香港大學民意研究計劃（港大民研）。公報內的「民研計劃」指的可以是香港民研或其前身港大民研。
公報簡要
民研計劃於三月初由真實訪問員以隨機抽樣電話訪問方式成功訪問了1,001名香港居民。調查顯示，與半個月前比較，特首林鄭月娥的評分顯著下跌4.4分至29.5分，有43%受訪者給予林鄭月娥0分，其支持率為18%，反對率為72%，民望淨值顯著下跌10個百分點至負54個百分點。司長方面，政務司司長張建宗的支持度評分為32.7分，民望淨值為負25個百分點。財政司司長陳茂波的支持度評分為34.7分，民望淨值為負21個百分點。至於律政司司長鄭若驊，其支持度評分為23.9分，民望淨值為負42個百分點。各司長民望與上個月變化不大。局長方面，十三位局長的民望淨值除了排名首位的財經事務及庫務局局長許正宇錄得正1個百分點外，其餘全部錄得負值。排名第二至第四位的是發展局局長黃偉綸，創新及科技局局長薛永恒和環境局局長黃錦星，然後是民政事務局局長徐英偉、商務及經濟發展局局長邱騰華、勞工福利局局長羅致光、政制及內地事務局局長曾國衞、公務員事務局局長聶德權、運輸及房屋局局長陳帆、保安局局長李家超、食物及衞生局局長陳肇始及教育局局長楊潤雄。對比兩個月前，八位局長的淨支持率上升，四人下跌，一人不變，當中只有陳帆的支持率淨值顯著下跌9個百分點。調查的實效回應比率為47.6%。在95%置信水平下，調查的百分比誤差不超過+/-4%，淨值誤差不超過+/-7%，評分誤差不超過+/-2.7。
樣本資料
| 調查日期 | ： | 8-12/3/2021 |
| 調查方法 | ： | 由真實訪問員進行隨機抽樣電話訪問 |
| 訪問對象 | ： | 18歲或以上操粵語的香港居民 |
| 成功樣本數目[1] | ： | 1,001 (包括496個固網及505個手機樣本) |
| 實效回應比率 | ： | 47.6% |
| 抽樣誤差[2] | ： | 在95%置信水平下，百分比誤差不超過+/-4%，淨值誤差不超過+/-7%，評分誤差不超過+/-2.7 |
| 加權方法 | ： | 按照政府統計處提供的統計數字以「反覆多重加權法」作出調整。全港人口年齡及性別分佈統計數字來自《二零一九年年中人口數字》，而教育程度（最高就讀程度）及經濟活動身分統計數字則來自《香港的女性及男性 - 主要統計數字》（2019年版）。 |
[1] 數字為調查的總樣本數目，個別題目則可能只涉及次樣本。有關數字請參閱下列數表內列出的樣本數目。
[2] 此公報中所有誤差數字均以95%置信水平計算。95%置信水平，是指倘若以不同隨機樣本重複進行有關調查100次，則95次各自計算出的誤差範圍會包含人口真實數字。由於調查數字涉及抽樣誤差，傳媒引用百分比數字時，應避免使用小數點，在引用評分數字時，則可以使用一個小數點。
特首及問責司局長民望
以下是特首林鄭月娥的最新民望數字：
| 調查日期 | 18-22/12/20 | 4-8/1/21 | 18-22/1/21 | 2-5/2/21 | 24-26/2/21 | 8-12/3/21 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 1,014 | 1,000 | 1,011 | 1,018 | 1,000 | 1,001 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 68.7% | 58.5% | 67.2% | 62.9% | 57.2% | 47.6% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及 誤差 |
-- |
| 特首林鄭月娥評分 | 29.7 | 29.0 | 32.0[3] | 31.0 | 33.9 | 29.5+/-2.1 | -4.4[3] |
| 林鄭月娥出任特首支持率 | 18% | 19% | 21% | 18% | 23%[3] | 18+/-2% | -5%[3] |
| 林鄭月娥出任特首反對率 | 69% | 72% | 69% | 70% | 67% | 72+/-3% | +5%[3] |
| 支持率淨值 | -51% | -54% | -49% | -52% | -43%[3] | -54+/-5% | -10%[3] |
[3] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
以下是各問責司長的最新民望數字：
| 調查日期 | 9-13/11/20 | 7-10/12/20 | 4-8/1/21 | 2-5/2/21 | 24/2/21[4] | 8-12/3/21 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 608-636 | 574-657 | 600-664 | 529-582 | 859 | 521-548 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 63.9% | 70.0% | 58.5% | 62.9% | 61.0% | 47.6% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及誤差 | -- |
| 政務司司長張建宗評分 | 30.7 | 29.2 | 30.7 | 31.2 | -- | 32.7+/-2.6 | +1.6 |
| 張建宗出任政務司司長支持率 | 18% | 17% | 18% | 16% | -- | 19+/-3% | +3% |
| 張建宗出任政務司司長反對率 | 50% | 51% | 48% | 47% | -- | 44+/-4% | -3% |
| 支持率淨值 | -32% | -34% | -29% | -31% | -- | -25+/-7% | +6% |
| 財政司司長陳茂波評分 | 39.5 | 35.4[5] | 33.6 | 35.2 | 36.2 | 34.7+/-2.7 | -1.5 |
| 陳茂波出任財政司司長支持率 | 29% | 24% | 27% | 23% | 27% | 26+/-4% | -- |
| 陳茂波出任財政司司長反對率 | 38%[5] | 44%[5] | 42% | 44% | 51%[5] | 47+/-4% | -4% |
| 支持率淨值 | -9% | -20%[5] | -14% | -21% | -24% | -21+/-7% | +3% |
| 律政司司長鄭若驊評分 | 21.7 | 23.3 | 23.1 | 23.8 | -- | 23.9+/-2.7 | +0.2 |
| 鄭若驊出任律政司司長支持率 | 13% | 14% | 14% | 11% | -- | 14+/-3% | +3% |
| 鄭若驊出任律政司司長反對率 | 64% | 63% | 66% | 61% | -- | 56+/-4% | -4% |
| 支持率淨值 | -51% | -49% | -52% | -50% | -- | -42+/-6% | +8% |
[4] 調查為財政預算案即時調查，只問及財政司司長評分及支持率。
[5] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
以下是各問責局長的最新民望數字，按支持率淨值排列[6]：
| 調查日期 | 31/8-4/9/20 | 9-13/11/20 | 4-8/1/21 | 8-12/3/21 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 580-645 | 588-642 | 603-628 | 533-710 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 58.4% | 63.9% | 58.5% | 47.6% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及誤差 | -- |
| 許正宇出任財經事務及庫務局局長支持率 | 16% | 20%[7] | 20% | 19+/-4% | -1% |
| 許正宇出任財經事務及庫務局局長反對率 | 27% | 21%[7] | 26% | 19+/-4% | -7%[7] |
| 支持率淨值 | -11% | -1%[7] | -7% | 1+/-6% | +7% |
| 黃偉綸出任發展局局長支持率 | 15%[7] | 21%[7] | 21% | 21+/-3% | -- |
| 黃偉綸出任發展局局長反對率 | 32% | 27% | 26% | 23+/-4% | -4% |
| 支持率淨值 | -17%[7] | -6%[7] | -5% | -2+/-6% | +4% |
| 薛永恒出任創新及科技局局長支持率 | 19% | 23% | 23% | 24+/-4% | +2% |
| 薛永恒出任創新及科技局局長反對率 | 35% | 26%[7] | 33%[7] | 28+/-4% | -5% |
| 支持率淨值 | -16%[7] | -3%[7] | -10% | -4+/-6% | +6% |
| 黃錦星出任環境局局長支持率 | 22% | 28%[7] | 25% | 24+/-3% | -1% |
| 黃錦星出任環境局局長反對率 | 31% | 28% | 28% | 28+/-3% | -- |
| 支持率淨值 | -9% | -<1%[7] | -3% | -4+/-6% | -2% |
| 徐英偉出任民政事務局局長支持率 | 17% | 20% | 19% | 21+/-4% | +2% |
| 徐英偉出任民政事務局局長反對率 | 36% | 29%[7] | 31% | 29+/-4% | -2% |
| 支持率淨值 | -19% | -9%[7] | -13% | -8+/-6% | +5% |
| 邱騰華出任商務及經濟發展局局長支持率 | 21% | 28%[7] | 25% | 25+/-3% | -- |
| 邱騰華出任商務及經濟發展局局長反對率 | 48%[7] | 38%[7] | 39% | 35+/-4% | -4% |
| 支持率淨值 | -27%[7] | -10%[7] | -14% | -10+/-6% | +4% |
| 羅致光出任勞工及福利局局長支持率 | 24% | 28% | 31% | 25+/-3% | -6%[7] |
| 羅致光出任勞工及福利局局長反對率 | 44% | 36%[7] | 37% | 36+/-4% | -- |
| 支持率淨值 | -20%[7] | -9%[7] | -6% | -11+/-6% | -5% |
| 曾國衞出任政制及內地事務局局長支持率 | 19% | 23% | 21% | 22+/-3% | +1% |
| 曾國衞出任政制及內地事務局局長反對率 | 50%[7] | 43%[7] | 40% | 37+/-4% | -3% |
| 支持率淨值 | -31%[7] | -20%[7] | -19% | -15+/-6% | +4% |
| 聶德權出任公務員事務局局長支持率 | 23% | 23% | 23% | 25+/-3% | +2% |
| 聶德權出任公務員事務局局長反對率 | 49% | 42%[7] | 44% | 42+/-4% | -2% |
| 支持率淨值 | -26% | -19% | -21% | -17+/-6% | +4% |
| 陳帆出任運輸及房屋局局長支持率 | 20% | 25%[7] | 24% | 16+/-3% | -7%[7] |
| 陳帆出任運輸及房屋局局長反對率 | 45% | 38%[7] | 39% | 40+/-4% | +1% |
| 支持率淨值 | -26% | -13%[7] | -15% | -24+/-6% | -9%[7] |
| 李家超出任保安局局長支持率 | 21% | 24% | 25% | 27+/-4% | +3% |
| 李家超出任保安局局長反對率 | 63% | 55%[7] | 55% | 51+/-4% | -4% |
| 支持率淨值 | -42% | -31%[7] | -30% | -24+/-7% | +6% |
| 陳肇始出任食物及衛生局局長支持率 | 27% | 36%[7] | 25%[7] | 23+/-3% | -2% |
| 陳肇始出任食物及衛生局局長反對率 | 49%[7] | 38%[7] | 46%[7] | 49+/-4% | +3% |
| 支持率淨值 | -21%[7] | -2%[7] | -20%[7] | -26+/-6% | -5% |
| 楊潤雄出任教育局局長支持率 | 17% | 20% | 17% | 15+/-3% | -2% |
| 楊潤雄出任教育局局長反對率 | 60% | 59% | 60% | 58+/-4% | -2% |
| 支持率淨值 | -43% | -39% | -42% | -43+/-6% | -- |
[6] 如四捨五入後的數字相同，則會再考慮小數點後的數字。
[7] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
最新調查顯示，與半個月前比較，特首林鄭月娥的評分顯著下跌4.4分至29.5分，有43%受訪者給予林鄭月娥0分，其支持率為18%，反對率為72%，民望淨值顯著下跌10個百分點至負54個百分點。
司長方面，政務司司長張建宗的支持度評分為32.7分，支持率為19%，反對率為44%，民望淨值為負25個百分點。財政司司長陳茂波的支持度評分為34.7分，支持率為26%，反對率為47%，民望淨值為負21個百分點。至於律政司司長鄭若驊，其支持度評分為23.9分，支持率為14%，反對率為56%，民望淨值為負42個百分點。以上民望與一個月前分別不大。
局長方面，十三位局長的民望淨值除了排名首位的財經事務及庫務局局長許正宇錄得正1個百分點外，其餘全部錄得負值。排名第二至第四位的是發展局局長黃偉綸，創新及科技局局長薛永恒和環境局局長黃錦星，然後是民政事務局局長徐英偉、商務及經濟發展局局長邱騰華、勞工福利局局長羅致光、政制及內地事務局局長曾國衞、公務員事務局局長聶德權、運輸及房屋局局長陳帆、保安局局長李家超、食物及衞生局局長陳肇始及教育局局長楊潤雄。對比兩個月前，八位局長的淨支持率上升，四人下跌，一人不變，當中只有陳帆的支持率淨值顯著下跌9個百分點。
根據民研計劃的標準，沒有官員屬於「表現理想」或「表現成功」，陳茂波、羅致光、邱騰華、聶德權、薛永恒、黃錦星、陳肇始、曾國衞、張建宗及陳帆屬於「表現一般」，徐英偉、黃偉綸及許正宇屬於「表現不彰」，楊潤雄、鄭若驊及李家超屬於「表現失敗」，林鄭月娥屬於「表現拙劣」。
以下是特首林鄭月娥及各問責官員民望級別總表：
| 「表現理想」：支持率超過66%者，以支持率排名[8]，即括弧內數字 |
| 沒有官員 |
| 「表現成功」：支持率超過50%者，以支持率排名[8]，即括弧內數字 |
| 沒有官員 |
| 「表現一般」：非其他五類者，以支持率排名[8]，即括弧內數字 |
| 財政司司長陳茂波（26%）
勞工及福利局局長羅致光（25%） 商務及經濟發展局局長邱騰華（25%） 公務員事務局局長聶德權（25%） 創新及科技局局長薛永恒（24%） 環境局局長黃錦星（24%） 食物及衛生局局長陳肇始（23%） 政制及內地事務局局長曾國衞（22%） 政務司司長張建宗（19%） 運輸及房屋局局長陳帆（16%） |
| 「表現不彰」：認知率不足50%者，以支持率排名[8]，括弧內第一數字為支持率，第二數字為認知率 |
| 民政事務局局長徐英偉（21%，50%）
發展局局長黃偉綸（21%，43%） 財經事務及庫務局局長許正宇（19%，38%） |
| 「表現失敗」：反對率超過50%者，以反對率排名[8]，即括弧內數字 |
| 教育局局長楊潤雄（58%）
律政司司長鄭若驊（56%） 保安局局長李家超（51%） |
| 「表現拙劣」：反對率超過66%者，以反對率排名[8]，即括弧內數字 |
| 特首林鄭月娥（72%） |
[8] 如四捨五入後的數字相同，則會再考慮小數點後的數字。
民意日誌
民研計劃於2007年開始與慧科訊業有限公司合作，由慧科訊業按照民研計劃設計的分析方法，將每日大事記錄傳送至民研計劃，經民研計劃核實後成為「民意日誌」。
由於本新聞公報所涉及的部分調查項目，上次調查日期為4-8/1/2021，而今次調查日期則為8-12/3/2021，因此是次公報中的「民意日誌」項目便以上述日期為依歸，讓讀者作出比較。以涵蓋率不下25%本地報章每日頭條新聞和報社評論計，在上述期間發生的相關大事包括以下事件，讀者可以自行判斷有關事件有否影響各項民調數字：
| 12/3/21 | 香港新增54宗本地感染新冠肺炎個案 |
| 11/3/21 | 全國人大會議通過修改香港的選舉制度 |
| 8/3/21 | 71歲男子接種科興疫苗後死亡 |
| 6/3/21 | 55歲女子接種科興疫苗後死亡 |
| 5/3/21 | 全國人大會議將審議修改香港的選舉制度 |
| 3/3/21 | 專家委員會指63歲男子死亡事件與疫苗無關 |
| 2/3/21 | 63歲男子接種科興疫苗後死亡 |
| 1/3/21 | 法庭通宵審議47名民主派人士保釋申請 |
| 28/2/21 | 47名民主派人士被控「串謀顛覆國家政權罪」 |
| 25/2/21 | 政府將分期發放5,000元電子消費券 |
| 24/2/21 | 財政司司長陳茂波發表財政預算案 |
| 23/2/21 | 政府提出修例規管公職人員宣誓，列出負面行為清單，違者將取消資格 |
| 22/2/21 | 夏寶龍指中央政府將改變香港選舉制度，確保「愛國者治港」 |
| 19/2/21 | 政府公布香港電台的管治及管理檢討報告，並宣布由李百全接替梁家榮出任廣播處長 |
| 18/2/21 | 科興疫苗抵港，政府公布接種計劃 |
| 16/2/21 | 政府恢復晚市堂食，唯顧客須使用「安心出行」應用程式或登記資料 |
| 15/2/21 | 香港新增9宗本地感染新冠肺炎個案 |
| 13/2/21 | 鄉議局主席劉業強到車公廟為香港求籤 |
| 10/2/21 | 政府預告將恢復晚市堂食，唯顧客須使用「安心出行」應用程式或登記資料 |
| 9/2/21 | 終審法院撤銷高等法院批准黎智英保釋的決定 |
| 4/2/21 | 林鄭月娥出席立法會答問大會 |
| 2/2/21 | 政府繼續封鎖多區進行強制檢測，並指或破門而入 |
| 1/2/21 | 政府封鎖多區進行強制檢測，並降低封區門檻 |
| 29/1/21 | 英國政府公布BNO簽證移民詳情；中國及香港政府宣布不再承認BNO護照 |
| 28/1/21 | 政府封鎖北角東發大廈進行強制檢測 |
| 27/1/21 | 林鄭月娥以視像形式向習近平述職 |
| 26/1/21 | 政府封鎖碧街附近進行強制檢測 |
| 24/1/21 | 佐敦封鎖區域解封，逾7,000人中找出13宗個案 |
| 23/1/21 | 政府封鎖佐敦指定區域兩日進行強制檢測 |
| 22/1/21 | 消息指政府將封鎖油麻地指定區域 |
| 20/1/21 | 英國御用大律師David Perry辭任民主派集結案主控官 |
| 18/1/21 | 海洋公園公布改革方案 |
| 15/1/21 | 政府對油麻地區內20幢大廈居民實施強制檢測 |
| 13/1/21 | 巴西當局公布科興疫苗整體有效率為50.4% |
數據分析
最新調查顯示，與半個月前比較，特首林鄭月娥的評分顯著下跌4.4分至29.5分，有43%受訪者給予林鄭月娥0分，其支持率為18%，反對率為72%，民望淨值顯著下跌10個百分點至負54個百分點。司長方面，政務司司長張建宗的支持度評分為32.7分，民望淨值為負25個百分點。財政司司長陳茂波的支持度評分為34.7分，民望淨值為負21個百分點。至於律政司司長鄭若驊，其支持度評分為23.9分，民望淨值為負42個百分點。各司長民望與上個月變化不大。局長方面，十三位局長的民望淨值除了排名首位的財經事務及庫務局局長許正宇錄得正1個百分點外，其餘全部錄得負值。排名第二至第四位的是發展局局長黃偉綸，創新及科技局局長薛永恒和環境局局長黃錦星，然後是民政事務局局長徐英偉、商務及經濟發展局局長邱騰華、勞工福利局局長羅致光、政制及內地事務局局長曾國衞、公務員事務局局長聶德權、運輸及房屋局局長陳帆、保安局局長李家超、食物及衞生局局長陳肇始及教育局局長楊潤雄。對比兩個月前，八位局長的淨支持率上升，四人下跌，一人不變，當中只有陳帆的支持率淨值顯著下跌9個百分點。
March 16, 2021
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials
Press Conference Live
POP releases popularities of CE and principal officials
Special Announcement
The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.
Abstract
POP successfully interviewed 1,001 Hong Kong residents by random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in early March. Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam has dropped significantly by 4.4 marks compared to half a month ago, now standing at 29.5 marks. 43% of respondents gave her 0 mark. Her approval rate is 18%, disapproval rate 72%, giving a net popularity of negative 54 percentage points, which has dropped significantly by 10 percentage points. As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 32.7 marks. His net popularity is negative 25 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 34.7 marks, his net popularity is negative 21 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 23.9 marks, her net popularity is negative 42 percentage points. All secretaries’ popularity figures have not changed much from a month ago. As for the Directors of Bureaux, except for Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui who has got a net approval rate of positive 1 percentage point, everyone else register negative net approval rates. The second to fourth positions go to Secretary for Development Michael Wong, Secretary for Innovation and Technology Alfred Sit and Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing, followed by Secretary for Home Affairs Caspar Tsui, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau, Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Erick Tsang, Secretary for the Civil Service Patrick Nip, Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan, Secretary for Security John Lee, Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan and Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung. Compared to two months ago, the net approval rates of 8 Directors have gone up, 4 have gone down, while 1 remains unchanged, but only the net approval rate of Frank Chan has dropped significantly by 9 percentage points. The effective response rate of the survey is 47.6%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-7% and that of ratings is +/-2.7 at 95% confidence level.
Contact Information
| Date of survey | : | 8-12/3/2021 |
| Survey method | : | Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers |
| Target population | : | Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above |
| Sample size[1] | : | 1,001 (including 496 landline and 505 mobile samples) |
| Effective response rate | : | 47.6% |
| Sampling error[2] | : | Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-7% and that of ratings not more than +/-2.7 at 95% conf. level |
| Weighting method | : | Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2019”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2019 Edition)”. |
[1] This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.
[2] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
Popularity of CE and principal officials
Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:
| Date of survey | 18-22/12/20 | 4-8/1/21 | 18-22/1/21 | 2-5/2/21 | 24-26/2/21 | 8-12/3/21 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 1,014 | 1,000 | 1,011 | 1,018 | 1,000 | 1,001 | -- |
| Response rate | 68.7% | 58.5% | 67.2% | 62.9% | 57.2% | 47.6% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Rating of CE Carrie Lam | 29.7 | 29.0 | 32.0[3] | 31.0 | 33.9 | 29.5+/-2.1 | -4.4[3] |
| Vote of confidence in CE Carrie Lam |
18% | 19% | 21% | 18% | 23%[3] | 18+/-2% | -5%[3] |
| Vote of no confidence in CE Carrie Lam |
69% | 72% | 69% | 70% | 67% | 72+/-3% | +5%[3] |
| Net approval rate | -51% | -54% | -49% | -52% | -43%[3] | -54+/-5% | -10%[3] |
[3] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Recent popularity figures of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:
| Date of survey | 9-13/11/20 | 7-10/12/20 | 4-8/1/21 | 2-5/2/21 | 24/2/21[4] | 8-12/3/21 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 608-636 | 574-657 | 600-664 | 529-582 | 859 | 521-548 | -- |
| Response rate | 63.9% | 70.0% | 58.5% | 62.9% | 61.0% | 47.6% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Rating of CS Matthew Cheung | 30.7 | 29.2 | 30.7 | 31.2 | -- | 32.7+/-2.6 | +1.6 |
| Vote of confidence in CS Matthew Cheung |
18% | 17% | 18% | 16% | -- | 19+/-3% | +3% |
| Vote of no confidence in CS Matthew Cheung |
50% | 51% | 48% | 47% | -- | 44+/-4% | -3% |
| Net approval rate | -32% | -34% | -29% | -31% | -- | -25+/-7% | +6% |
| Rating of FS Paul Chan | 39.5 | 35.4[5] | 33.6 | 35.2 | 36.2 | 34.7+/-2.7 | -1.5 |
| Vote of confidence in FS Paul Chan | 29% | 24% | 27% | 23% | 27% | 26+/-4% | -- |
| Vote of no confidence in FS Paul Chan | 38%[5] | 44%[5] | 42% | 44% | 51%[5] | 47+/-4% | -4% |
| Net approval rate | -9% | -20%[5] | -14% | -21% | -24% | -21+/-7% | +3% |
| Rating of SJ Teresa Cheng | 21.7 | 23.3 | 23.1 | 23.8 | -- | 23.9+/-2.7 | +0.2 |
| Vote of confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng | 13% | 14% | 14% | 11% | -- | 14+/-3% | +3% |
| Vote of no confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng | 64% | 63% | 66% | 61% | -- | 56+/-4% | -4% |
| Net approval rate | -51% | -49% | -52% | -50% | -- | -42+/-6% | +8% |
[4] The survey was the Budget instant poll and only asked about the rating of FS and vote of confidence in him.
[5] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Latest popularity figures of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system sorted by net approval rates[6] are summarized below:
| Date of survey | 31/8-4/9/20 | 9-13/11/20 | 4-8/1/21 | 8-12/3/21 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 580-645 | 588-642 | 603-628 | 533-710 | -- |
| Response rate | 58.4% | 63.9% | 58.5% | 47.6% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui | 16% | 20%[7] | 20% | 19+/-4% | -1% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui | 27% | 21%[7] | 26% | 19+/-4% | -7%[7] |
| Net approval rate | -11% | -1%[7] | -7% | 1+/-6% | +7% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Development Michael Wong | 15%[7] | 21%[7] | 21% | 21+/-3% | -- |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Development Michael Wong | 32% | 27% | 26% | 23+/-4% | -4% |
| Net approval rate | -17%[7] | -6%[7] | -5% | -2+/-6% | +4% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Innovation and Technology Alfred Sit | 19% | 23% | 23% | 24+/-4% | +2% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Innovation and Technology Alfred Sit | 35% | 26%[7] | 33%[7] | 28+/-4% | -5% |
| Net approval rate | -16%[7] | -3%[7] | -10% | -4+/-6% | +6% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing | 22% | 28%[7] | 25% | 24+/-3% | -1% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing | 31% | 28% | 28% | 28+/-3% | -- |
| Net approval rate | -9% | -<1%[7] | -3% | -4+/-6% | -2% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Caspar Tsui | 17% | 20% | 19% | 21+/-4% | +2% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Caspar Tsui | 36% | 29%[7] | 31% | 29+/-4% | -2% |
| Net approval rate | -19% | -9%[7] | -13% | -8+/-6% | +5% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau | 21% | 28%[7] | 25% | 25+/-3% | -- |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau | 48%[7] | 38%[7] | 39% | 35+/-4% | -4% |
| Net approval rate | -27%[7] | -10%[7] | -14% | -10+/-6% | +4% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong | 24% | 28% | 31% | 25+/-3% | -6%[7] |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong | 44% | 36%[7] | 37% | 36+/-4% | -- |
| Net approval rate | -20%[7] | -9%[7] | -6% | -11+/-6% | -5% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Erick Tsang | 19% | 23% | 21% | 22+/-3% | +1% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Erick Tsang | 50%[7] | 43%[7] | 40% | 37+/-4% | -3% |
| Net approval rate | -31%[7] | -20%[7] | -19% | -15+/-6% | +4% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Patrick Nip | 23% | 23% | 23% | 25+/-3% | +2% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Patrick Nip | 49% | 42%[7] | 44% | 42+/-4% | -2% |
| Net approval rate | -26% | -19% | -21% | -17+/-6% | +4% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan | 20% | 25%[7] | 24% | 16+/-3% | -7%[7] |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan | 45% | 38%[7] | 39% | 40+/-4% | +1% |
| Net approval rate | -26% | -13%[7] | -15% | -24+/-6% | -9%[7] |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Security John Lee | 21% | 24% | 25% | 27+/-4% | +3% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Security John Lee | 63% | 55%[7] | 55% | 51+/-4% | -4% |
| Net approval rate | -42% | -31%[7] | -30% | -24+/-7% | +6% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan | 27% | 36%[7] | 25%[7] | 23+/-3% | -2% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan | 49%[7] | 38%[7] | 46%[7] | 49+/-4% | +3% |
| Net approval rate | -21%[7] | -2%[7] | -20%[7] | -26+/-6% | -5% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung | 17% | 20% | 17% | 15+/-3% | -2% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung | 60% | 59% | 60% | 58+/-4% | -2% |
| Net approval rate | -43% | -39% | -42% | -43+/-6% | -- |
[6] If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.
[7] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam has dropped significantly by 4.4 marks compared to half a month ago, now standing at 29.5 marks. 43% of respondents gave her 0 mark. Her approval rate is 18%, disapproval rate 72%, giving a net popularity of negative 54 percentage points, which has dropped significantly by 10 percentage points.
As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 32.7 marks. His approval rate is 19%, disapproval rate 44%, giving a net popularity of negative 25 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 34.7 marks, approval rate 26%, disapproval rate 47%, thus a net popularity of negative 21 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 23.9 marks, approval rate 14%, disapproval rate 56%, giving a net popularity of negative 42 percentage points. All secretaries’ popularity figures have not changed much from a month ago.
As for the Directors of Bureaux, except for Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui who has got a net approval rate of positive 1 percentage point, everyone else register negative net approval rates. The second to fourth positions go to Secretary for Development Michael Wong, Secretary for Innovation and Technology Alfred Sit and Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing, followed by Secretary for Home Affairs Caspar Tsui, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau, Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Erick Tsang, Secretary for the Civil Service Patrick Nip, Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan, Secretary for Security John Lee, Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan and Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung. Compared to two months ago, the net approval rates of 8 Directors have gone up, 4 have gone down, while 1 remains unchanged, but only the net approval rate of Frank Chan has dropped significantly by 9 percentage points.
According to POP’s standard, no one falls under the category of “ideal” or “successful” performer. The performance of Paul Chan, Law Chi-kwong, Edward Yau, Patrick Nip, Alfred Sit, Wong Kam-sing, Sophia Chan, Erick Tsang, Matthew Cheung and Frank Chan can be labeled as “mediocre”. That of Caspar Tsui, Michael Wong and Christopher Hui can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. Kevin Yeung, Teresa Cheng and John Lee fall into the category of “depressing” performer, while Carrie Lam falls into that of “disastrous”.
The following table summarizes the grading of CE Carrie Lam and the principal officials:
| “Ideal”: those with approval rates of over 66%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets[8] |
| Nil |
| “Successful”: those with approval rates of over 50%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets[8] |
| Nil |
| “Mediocre”: those not belonging to other 5 types; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets[8] |
| FS Paul Chan (26%)
Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong (25%) Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau (25%) Secretary for the Civil Service Patrick Nip (25%) Secretary for Innovation and Technology Alfred Sit (24%) Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing (24%) Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan (23%) Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Erick Tsang (22%) CS Matthew Cheung (19%) Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan (16%) |
| “Inconspicuous”: those with recognition rates of less than 50%; ranked by their approval rates[8]; the first figure inside bracket is approval rate while the second figure is recognition rate |
| Secretary for Home Affairs Caspar Tsui (21%, 50%)
Secretary for Development Michael Wong (21%, 43%) Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui (19%, 38%) |
| “Depressing”: those with disapproval rates of over 50%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets[8] |
| Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung (58%)
SJ Teresa Cheng (56%) Secretary for Security John Lee (51%) |
| “Disastrous”: those with disapproval rates of over 66%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets[8] |
| CE Carrie Lam (72%) |
- If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.
Opinion Daily
In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.
For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 4 to 8 January, 2021 while this survey was conducted from 8 to 12 March, 2021. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
| 12/3/21 | Hong Kong confirms 54 local infections with coronavirus disease. |
| 11/3/21 | The National People’s Congress passes bill on amending Hong Kong’s electoral system. |
| 8/3/21 | A male of age 71 dies after taking the Sinovac vaccine. |
| 6/3/21 | A female of age 55 dies after taking the Sinovac vaccine. |
| 5/3/21 | The National People’s Congress will deliberate on amending Hong Kong’s electoral system. |
| 3/3/21 | Expert committee finds no link between Sinovac vaccine and the death of the male aged 63. |
| 2/3/21 | A male of age 63 dies after taking the Sinovac vaccine. |
| 1/3/21 | The court reviews 47 democrats’ bail application overnight. |
| 28/2/21 | 47 democrats are charged with “conspiracy to commit subversion”. |
| 25/2/21 | The government will distribute e-vouchers for spending worth $5,000 in batches. |
| 24/2/21 | Financial Secretary Paul Chan delivers the Budget. |
| 23/2/21 | The government proposes amendments to laws to regulate oath-taking by public officers, compiling a negative list of behaviours, violators of which will be disqualified. |
| 22/2/21 | Xia Baolong says the Central Government will change the electoral system in Hong Kong to make sure it will be “patriots ruling Hong Kong”. |
| 19/2/21 | The government releases the Governance and Management of RTHK Review Report, and announces that Li Pak-chuen will replace Leung Ka-wing as the Director of Broadcasting. |
| 18/2/21 | Sinovac vaccines arrive in Hong Kong. The government announces the vaccination plan. |
| 16/2/21 | The government lifts the dine-in ban during nighttime, but customers will need to use the “LeaveHomeSafe” app or register. |
| 15/2/21 | Hong Kong confirms 9 local infections with coronavirus disease. |
| 13/2/21 | Heung Yee Kuk Chairman Kenneth Lau draws a fortune stick for Hong Kong at Che Kung Temple. |
| 10/2/21 | The government announces that the dine-in ban during nighttime will be lifted, but customers will need to use the “LeaveHomeSafe” app or register. |
| 9/2/21 | The Court of Final Appeal sets aside the High Court’s decision to grant bail to Jimmy Lai. |
| 4/2/21 | Carrie Lam attends the Legislative Council question-and-answer session. |
| 2/2/21 | The government continues to lock down multiple areas for compulsory testing and says officials may break into flats. |
| 1/2/21 | The government locks down multiple areas for compulsory testing and lowers the threshold of imposing lockdowns. |
| 29/1/21 | The British government announces details of migration using BNO visa; the Chinese and Hong Kong governments announce they will no longer recognise BNO passports. |
| 28/1/21 | The government locks down Tung Fat Building in North Point for compulsory testing. |
| 27/1/21 | Carrie Lam reports to Xi Jinping on her work via video conferencing. |
| 26/1/21 | The government locks down areas around Pitt Street for compulsory testing. |
| 24/1/21 | Lockdown in Jordan ends with 13 cases found in over 7,000 people. |
| 23/1/21 | The government locks down designated areas in Jordan for compulsory testing. |
| 22/1/21 | Sources say the government will lock down designated areas in Yau Ma Tei. |
| 20/1/21 | Queen’s Counsel David Perry steps down as prosecutor in an assembly case involving democrats. |
| 18/1/21 | Ocean Park announces its reform plan. |
| 15/1/21 | Mandatory testing is ordered for residents of 20 buildings in Yau Ma Tei. |
| 13/1/21 | Brazil authority announces that the general efficacy of Sinovac vaccine is 50.4%. |
Data Analysis
Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam has dropped significantly by 4.4 marks compared to half a month ago, now standing at 29.5 marks. 43% of respondents gave her 0 mark. Her approval rate is 18%, disapproval rate 72%, giving a net popularity of negative 54 percentage points, which has dropped significantly by 10 percentage points. As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 32.7 marks. His net popularity is negative 25 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 34.7 marks, his net popularity is negative 21 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 23.9 marks, her net popularity is negative 42 percentage points. All secretaries’ popularity figures have not changed much from a month ago. As for the Directors of Bureaux, except for Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui who has got a net approval rate of positive 1 percentage point, everyone else register negative net approval rates. The second to fourth positions go to Secretary for Development Michael Wong, Secretary for Innovation and Technology Alfred Sit and Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing, followed by Secretary for Home Affairs Caspar Tsui, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau, Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Erick Tsang, Secretary for the Civil Service Patrick Nip, Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan, Secretary for Security John Lee, Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan and Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung. Compared to two months ago, the net approval rates of 8 Directors have gone up, 4 have gone down, while 1 remains unchanged, but only the net approval rate of Frank Chan has dropped significantly by 9 percentage points.
