2021年3月30日
香港民意研究所發佈會 – 傳媒參考資料
發佈會回顧
民研計劃發放特首和政府民望數字、
五大行政會議成員評分及民情指數
特別宣佈
香港民意研究計劃（香港民研）前身為香港大學民意研究計劃（港大民研）。公報內的「民研計劃」指的可以是香港民研或其前身港大民研。
公報簡要
民研計劃於三月由真實訪問員以隨機抽樣電話訪問方式，分兩階段成功訪問了1,001和1,010名香港居民。最新調查顯示，與半個月前比較，特首林鄭月娥的評分顯著上升3.4分至32.8分，有39%受訪者給予林鄭月娥0分，民望淨值為負50個百分點。特區政府方面，滿意率淨值為負42個百分點，信任淨值為負21個百分點，兩項數字均比一個月前略為下跌，但變化在抽樣誤差之內。至於市民對現時政治、民生及經濟狀況的評價，滿意淨值分別為負41、負48及負54個百分點，數字與上個月比較分別不大，唯政治狀況的滿意淨值錄得2018年12月以來新高。五大行政會議成員方面，對比六個月前，市民最熟悉的行政會議非官守議員沒有太大改變。論絕對評分，首位是陳智思，得34.2分；排第二位的是葉劉淑儀，評分為32.8分；而位列第三至第五位的是湯家驊、葉國謙及張宇人，評分分別為32.5、30.0及27.9分。陳智思和湯家驊的評分較半年前錄得顯著升幅。民情指數方面，最新數字為69.4，較三月上旬下跌0.4點。評分調查的實效回應比率為56.8%。在95%置信水平下，調查的百分比誤差不超過+/-4%，淨值誤差不超過+/-8%，評分誤差不超過+/-2.9。
樣本資料
| 行政會議成員提名階段 | 行政會議成員評分階段及其他調查 | ||
| 調查日期 | ： | 8-12/3/2021 | 22-25/3/2021 |
| 成功樣本數目[1] | ： | 1,001 (包括496個固網及505個手機樣本) |
1,010 (包括507個固網及503個手機樣本) |
| 實效回應比率 | ： | 47.6% | 56.8% |
| 調查方法 | ： | 由真實訪問員進行隨機抽樣電話訪問 | |
| 訪問對象 | ： | 18歲或以上操粵語的香港居民 | |
| 抽樣誤差[2] | ： | 在95%置信水平下，百分比誤差不超過+/-4%，淨值誤差不超過+/-8%，評分誤差不超過+/-2.9 | |
| 加權方法 | ： | 按照政府統計處提供的統計數字以「反覆多重加權法」作出調整。全港人口年齡及性別分佈統計數字來自《二零一九年年中人口數字》，而教育程度（最高就讀程度）及經濟活動身分統計數字則來自《香港的女性及男性 - 主要統計數字》（2019年版）。 | |
[1] 數字為調查的總樣本數目，個別題目則可能只涉及次樣本。有關數字請參閱下列數表內列出的樣本數目。
[2] 此公報中所有誤差數字均以95%置信水平計算。95%置信水平，是指倘若以不同隨機樣本重複進行有關調查100次，則95次各自計算出的誤差範圍會包含人口真實數字。由於調查數字涉及抽樣誤差，傳媒引用百分比數字時，應避免使用小數點，在引用評分數字時，則可以使用一個小數點。
特首及特區政府民望
以下是特首林鄭月娥的最新民望數字：
| 調查日期 | 4-8/1/21 | 18-22/1/21 | 2-5/2/21 | 24-26/2/21 | 8-12/3/21 | 22-25/3/21 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 1,000 | 1,011 | 1,018 | 1,000 | 1,001 | 1,010 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 58.5% | 67.2% | 62.9% | 57.2% | 47.6% | 56.8% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及 誤差 |
-- |
| 特首林鄭月娥評分 | 29.0 | 32.0[3] | 31.0 | 33.9 | 29.5[3] | 32.8+/-2.1 | +3.4[3] |
| 林鄭月娥出任特首支持率 | 19% | 21% | 18% | 23%[3] | 18%[3] | 19+/-2% | -- |
| 林鄭月娥出任特首反對率 | 72% | 69% | 70% | 67% | 72%[3] | 68+/-3% | -4% |
| 支持率淨值 | -54% | -49% | -52% | -43%[3] | -54%[3] | -50+/-5% | +4% |
[3] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
以下是特區政府的最新民望數字：
| 調查日期 | 19-22/10/20 | 23-26/11/20 | 18-22/12/20 | 18-22/1/21 | 24-26/2/21 | 22-25/3/21 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 624-637 | 518-529 | 558-623 | 510-600 | 519 | 570-630 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 62.2% | 74.6% | 68.7% | 67.2% | 57.2% | 56.8% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及 誤差 |
-- |
| 特區政府表現滿意率[4] | 17% | 19% | 17% | 16% | 23%[5] | 21+/-3% | -2% |
| 特區政府表現不滿率[4] | 69%[5] | 62%[5] | 60% | 61% | 56% | 62+/-4% | +6%[5] |
| 滿意率淨值 | -52% | -43% | -43% | -45% | -33%[5] | -42+/-7% | -8% |
| 平均量值[4] | 2.0 | 2.1[5] | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.3[5] | 2.2+/-0.1 | -0.1 |
| 信任特區政府比率[4] | 26% | 30% | 29% | 28% | 36%[5] | 32+/-4% | -4% |
| 不信任特區政府比率[4] | 61%[5] | 49%[5] | 56%[5] | 51% | 50% | 53+/-4% | +3% |
| 信任淨值 | -35% | -20%[5] | -27% | -23% | -14% | -21+/-8% | -7% |
| 平均量值[4] | 2.3 | 2.5[5] | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.5+/-0.1 | -0.1 |
[4] 數字採自五等量尺。平均量值是把答案按照正面程度，以1分最低5分最高量化成為1、2、3、4、5分，再求取樣本平均數值。
[5] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
以下是市民對社會狀況的最新評價：
| 調查日期 | 19-22/10/20 | 23-26/11/20 | 18-22/12/20 | 18-22/1/21 | 24-26/2/21 | 22-25/3/21 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 1,020 | 1,085 | 1,014 | 1,011 | 1,000 | 1,010 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 62.2% | 74.6% | 68.7% | 67.2% | 57.2% | 56.8% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及 誤差 |
-- |
| 現時政治狀況滿意率[6] | 9% | 15%[7] | 16% | 15% | 18% | 21+/-3% | +3% |
| 現時政治狀況不滿率[6] | 75% | 66%[7] | 65% | 63% | 61% | 61+/-3% | +1% |
| 滿意率淨值 | -66% | -50%[7] | -50% | -47% | -42% | -41+/-5% | +2% |
| 平均量值[6] | 1.7 | 2.0[7] | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1+/-0.1 | +0.1 |
| 現時民生狀況滿意率[6] | 14% | 15% | 14% | 15% | 19%[7] | 17+/-2% | -2% |
| 現時民生狀況不滿率[6] | 67% | 61%[7] | 65% | 62% | 62% | 65+/-3% | +3% |
| 滿意率淨值 | -54% | -46%[7] | -51% | -47% | -43% | -48+/-5% | -5% |
| 平均量值[6] | 2.0 | 2.2[7] | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2+/-0.1 | -0.1 |
| 現時經濟狀況滿意率[6] | 9% | 10% | 10% | 13% | 12% | 12+/-2% | -- |
| 現時經濟狀況不滿率[6] | 70% | 64%[7] | 68%[7] | 67% | 68% | 66+/-3% | -2% |
| 滿意率淨值 | -61% | -53%[7] | -59% | -54% | -56% | -54+/-4% | +2% |
| 平均量值[6] | 2.0 | 2.1[7] | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1+/-0.1 | -- |
[6] 數字採自五等量尺。平均量值是把答案按照正面程度，以1分最低5分最高量化成為1、2、3、4、5分，再求取樣本平均數值。
[7] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
最新調查顯示，與半個月前比較，特首林鄭月娥的評分顯著上升3.4分至32.8分，有39%受訪者給予林鄭月娥0分，其支持率為19%，反對率為68%，民望淨值為負50個百分點。
特區政府方面，最新滿意率為21%，不滿率62%，滿意率淨值為負42個百分點。而平均量值為2.2分，即整體上接近「幾不滿」。信任程度方面，最新的信任比率為32%，不信任比率53%，信任淨值為負21個百分點。而平均量值為2.5分，即整體上介乎「幾不信任」及「一半半」之間。滿意率淨值和信任淨值均比一個月前略為下跌，但變化在抽樣誤差之內。
至於市民對現時政治、民生及經濟狀況的評價，最新滿意率分別為21%、17%及12%，而滿意淨值就分別為負41、負48及負54個百分點，平均量值分別為2.1、2.2及2.1，即整體上接近「幾不滿」。以上數字與上個月比較分別不大，唯政治狀況的滿意淨值錄得2018年12月以來新高。
五大行政會議成員評分
在提名調查中，被訪者可在未經提示下說出最多5名最熟悉的行政會議非官守議員。以下是提名調查的結果，按提名比率由高至低排列[8]：
| 調查日期 | 2-3/9/19 | 17-18/3/20 | 31/8-1/9/20 | 8-12/3/21 | 最新排名變化 |
| 樣本數目[9] | 510 | 502 | 508 | 538 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 69.1% | 60.1% | 61.4% | 47.6% | -- |
| 最新結果[10] | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及誤差 | -- |
| 葉劉淑儀 | 31%{1} | 32%{1} | 34%{1} | 30+/-4%{1} | -- |
| 陳智思 | 16%{3} | 16%{2} | 15%{2} | 17+/-3%{2} | -- |
| 湯家驊 | 19%{2} | 12%{3} | 14%{3} | 12+/-3%{3} | -- |
| 張宇人 | 3%{6} | 4%{5} | 7%{4} | 5+/-2%{4} | -- |
| 林正財 | 1%{10} | 11%{4} | 4%{6} | 4+/-2%{5} | ↑1 |
| 葉國謙 | 3%{7} | 3%{6} | 5%{5} | 2+/-1%{6} | ↓1 |
| 李國章 | 2%{8} | 1%{13} | 3%{8} | 2+/-1%{7} | ↑1 |
| 羅范椒芬 | 6%{4} | 3%{7} | 3%{9} | 2+/-1%{8} | ↑1 |
| 任志剛 | 4%{5} | 1%{12} | 4%{7} | 2+/-1%{9} | ↓2 |
| 黃國健 | 1%{11} | <1%{15} | 1%{12} | 1+/-1%{10} | ↑2 |
| 張國鈞 | <1%{15} | 2%{8} | 2%{10} | 1+/-1%{11} | ↓1 |
| 廖長江 | <1%{13} | 1%{9} | <1%{15} | 1+/-1%{12} | ↑3 |
| 林健鋒 | 1%{12} | 1%{10} | <1%{16} | <1+/-<1%{13} | ↑3 |
| 史美倫 | 2%{9} | 1%{11} | 2%{11} | <1+/-<1%{14} | ↓3 |
| 劉業強 | <1%{14} | <1%{16} | <1%{14} | <1+/-<1%{15} | ↓1 |
| 周松崗 | <1%{16} | <1%{14} | <1%{13} | 0%{16} | ↓3 |
| 錯誤答案 | 17% | 14% | 11% | 13+/-3% | -- |
| 唔知／難講 | 54% | 59% | 55% | 58+/-4% | -- |
[8] 如四捨五入後的數字相同，則會再考慮小數點後的數字。
[9] 民研計劃在2020年3月前彙報的次樣本數目為加權數字，2020年3月開始則以原始數字彙報。
[10] 括弧{ }內數字為排名。
提名調查顯示，最多被訪者提及的議員是葉劉淑儀、陳智思和湯家驊，提名比率分別為30%、17%及12%。然後是張宇人、林正財、葉國謙、李國章、羅范椒芬和任志剛，提名比率分別為5%、4%、2%、2%、2%及2%。然而，13%被訪者錯誤回答行政會議非官守議員名字，58%則表示完全不認識。
獲得提名次數最多的6名議員進入評分調查。在評分調查中，被訪者就個別議員以0至100分進行評分，0分代表絕對不支持，100分代表絕對支持，50分為一半半。統計結果後，認知度最低的一名議員再被剔除，之後再按支持度由高至低順序排列，得出五大行政會議成員。以下是五大行政會議成員的最新評分，按評分由高至低排列[11]：
| 調查日期 | 3-4/9/19 | 19-20/3/20 | 2-4/9/20 | 22-25/3/21 | 最新變化 | |
| 樣本數目[12] | 536 | 502 | 500 | 542-602 | -- | |
| 回應比率 | 69.9% | 66.2% | 55.8% | 56.8% | -- | |
| 最新結果[13] | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及誤差 | 認知率 | -- |
| 陳智思 | 35.1[14] [15] | 31.1{1}[15] | 29.5{2} | 34.2+/-2.7{1} | 70.0% | +4.6[15] |
| 葉劉淑儀 | 30.0{2}[15] | 29.5{2} | 31.0{1} | 32.8+/-2.9{2} | 93.9% | +1.8 |
| 湯家驊 | 24.9{5}[15] | 24.2{5} | 26.8{3} | 32.5+/-2.7{3} | 84.6% | +5.7[15] |
| 葉國謙 | -- | 24.6{4} | 26.7{4} | 30.0+/-2.7{4} | 76.3% | +3.2 |
| 張宇人 | 27.4{3} | 24.7{3} | 26.6{5} | 27.9+/-2.8{5} | 66.9% | +1.4 |
| 林正財 | -- | 28.8[14] | 30.1[14] | 31.6+/-2.8[14] | 52.6% | +1.5 |
| 任志剛 | 44.2{1}[15] | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 羅范椒芬 | 27.3{4}[15] | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
[11] 如四捨五入後的數字相同，則會再考慮小數點後的數字。
[12] 民研計劃在2020年3月前彙報的次樣本數目為加權數字，2020年3月開始則以原始數字彙報。
[13] 括弧{ }內數字為排名。
[14] 於評分調查認知率較低。
[15] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
最新評分調查顯示，市民對行政會議非官守議員的最新支持度排名，首位是陳智思，得34.2分；排第二位的是葉劉淑儀，評分為32.8分；而位列第三至第五位的是湯家驊、葉國謙及張宇人，評分分別為32.5、30.0及27.9分。在最新調查中，林正財得31.6分，但由於認知率較低而被剔除。陳智思和湯家驊的評分較半年前錄得顯著升幅。
民情指數
民研計劃制定「民情指數」（PSI），目的在於量化香港市民對香港社會的情緒反應，以解釋及預視社會出現集體行動的可能性。民情指數包涵了「政通」和「人和」兩個概念，分別以「政評數值（GA）」和「社評數值（SA）」顯示。「政評數值（GA）」泛指市民對整體政府管治的表現評價，而「社評數值（SA）」則泛指市民對整體社會狀況的評價，分別由四及六項民意數字組合而成。指數本身及兩項數值均以0至200顯示，100代表正常。
以下為民情指數、政評數值及社評數值走勢圖：
| 最新數值 | 民情指數：69.4 (-0.4) | 政評數值：70.6 (-1.1) | 社評數值：67.5 (+0.3) |
以下是民情指數、政評數值、社評數值，及十項基礎民意數字的近期數值：
| 截數日期 | 8/1/21 | 22/1/21 | 5/2/21 | 26/2/21 | 12/3/21 | 25/3/21 | 最新變化 |
| 民情指數 | 64.1 | 68.1 | 67.6 | 71.7 | 69.9 | 69.4 | -0.4 |
| 政評數值 | 66.6 | 70.2 | 69.4 | 74.9 | 71.6 | 70.6 | -1.1 |
| 特首評分 | 29.0 | 32.0 | 31.0 | 33.9 | 29.5 | 32.8 | +3.4 |
| 特首民望淨值 | -54% | -49% | -52% | -43% | -54% | -50% | +4% |
| 政府滿意程度平均量值 | 2.1[16] | 2.1 | 2.1[16] | 2.3 | 2.3[16] | 2.2 | -0.1 |
| 政府信任程度平均量值 | 2.4[16] | 2.5 | 2.5[16] | 2.6 | 2.6[16] | 2.5 | -0.1 |
| 社評數值 | 61.9 | 65.4 | 65.4[16] | 67.2 | 67.2[16] | 67.5 | +0.3 |
| 政治狀況滿意程度 | 2.0[16] | 2.1 | 2.1[16] | 2.1 | 2.1[16] | 2.1 | +0.1 |
| 政治狀況成份指標權數 | 0.32 | 0.32[16] | 0.32[16] | 0.32[16] | 0.32[16] | 0.3216] | -- |
| 經濟狀況滿意程度 | 2.0[16] | 2.1 | 2.1[16] | 2.1 | 2.1[16] | 2.1 | -- |
| 經濟狀況成份指標權數 | 0.33 | 0.33[16] | 0.33[16] | 0.33[16] | 0.33[16] | 0.3316] | -- |
| 民生狀況滿意程度 | 2.1[16] | 2.2 | 2.2[16] | 2.2 | 2.2[16] | 2.2 | -0.1 |
| 民生狀況成份指標權數 | 0.35 | 0.35[16] | 0.35[16] | 0.35[16] | 0.35[16] | 0.3516] | -- |
[16] 當有關數字沒有更新時，民研計劃會採用最近一次已公佈的數字替代。
各項指數的具體數值，可按下表理解：
| 指數得分 | 百分位數 | 指數得分 | 百分位數 |
| 140-200 | 最高1% | 0-60 | 最低1% |
| 125 | 最高5% | 75 | 最低5% |
| 120 | 最高10% | 80 | 最低10% |
| 110 | 最高25% | 90 | 最低25% |
| 100為正常數值，即半數在上，半數在下 | |||
民情指數較三月上旬下跌0.4點至69.4，數字可以視為過去逾二十年來最差的2個百分比。民情指數的兩個成份數值中，反映市民對整體政府管治表現評價的政評數值下跌1.1點至70.6，而反映市民對整體社會狀況評價的社評數值則上升0.3點至67.5。兩者均可以視為過去逾二十年來最差的2個百分比。
民意日誌
民研計劃於2007年開始與慧科訊業有限公司合作，由慧科訊業按照民研計劃設計的分析方法，將每日大事記錄傳送至民研計劃，經民研計劃核實後成為「民意日誌」。
由於本新聞公報所涉及的部分調查項目，上次調查日期為31/8-1/9/2020，而今次調查日期則為22-25/3/2021，因此是次公報中的「民意日誌」項目便以上述日期為依歸，讓讀者作出比較。以涵蓋率不下25%本地報章每日頭條新聞和報社評論計，在上述期間發生的相關大事包括以下事件，讀者可以自行判斷有關事件有否影響各項民調數字：
| 24/3/21 | 政府因復必泰疫苗包裝瑕疵宣布暫停接種 |
| 17/3/21 | 港澳辦和中聯辦就修改香港選舉制度舉辦座談會 |
| 15/3/21 | 政府擴大新冠疫苗接種優先組別範圍 |
| 13/3/21 | 政府封鎖半山區多幢大廈進行強制檢測 |
| 11/3/21 | 全國人大會議通過修改香港的選舉制度 |
| 8/3/21 | 71歲男子接種科興疫苗後死亡 |
| 6/3/21 | 55歲女子接種科興疫苗後死亡 |
| 5/3/21 | 全國人大會議將審議修改香港的選舉制度 |
| 3/3/21 | 專家委員會指63歲男子死亡事件與疫苗無關 |
| 2/3/21 | 63歲男子接種科興疫苗後死亡 |
| 1/3/21 | 法庭通宵審議47名民主派人士保釋申請 |
| 28/2/21 | 47名民主派人士被控「串謀顛覆國家政權罪」 |
| 25/2/21 | 政府將分期發放5,000元電子消費券 |
| 24/2/21 | 財政司司長陳茂波發表財政預算案 |
| 23/2/21 | 政府提出修例規管公職人員宣誓，列出負面行為清單，違者將取消資格 |
| 22/2/21 | 夏寶龍指中央政府將改變香港選舉制度，確保「愛國者治港」 |
| 19/2/21 | 政府公布香港電台的管治及管理檢討報告，並宣布由李百全接替梁家榮出任廣播處長 |
| 18/2/21 | 科興疫苗抵港，政府公布接種計劃 |
| 16/2/21 | 政府恢復晚市堂食，唯顧客須使用「安心出行」應用程式或登記資料 |
| 9/2/21 | 終審法院撤銷高等法院批准黎智英保釋的決定 |
| 2/2/21 | 政府繼續封鎖多區進行強制檢測，並指或破門而入 |
| 1/2/21 | 政府封鎖多區進行強制檢測，並降低封區門檻 |
| 29/1/21 | 英國政府公布BNO簽證移民詳情；中國及香港政府宣布不再承認BNO護照 |
| 28/1/21 | 政府封鎖北角東發大廈進行強制檢測 |
| 27/1/21 | 林鄭月娥以視像形式向習近平述職 |
| 26/1/21 | 政府封鎖碧街附近進行強制檢測 |
| 24/1/21 | 佐敦封鎖區域解封，逾7,000人中找出13宗個案 |
| 23/1/21 | 政府封鎖佐敦指定區域兩日進行強制檢測 |
| 20/1/21 | 英國御用大律師David Perry辭任民主派集結案主控官 |
| 15/1/21 | 政府對油麻地區內20幢大廈居民實施強制檢測 |
| 6/1/21 | 警方以涉嫌違反國安法拘捕53名民主派初選相關人士 |
| 5/1/21 | 馬道立指倡議司法機構改革須有細節及理據 |
| 4/1/21 | 政府宣布延長防疫措施，中小學及幼稚園暫停面授課至農曆年假 |
| 2/1/21 | 政府不排除強制市民使用「安心出行」應用程式 |
| 31/12/20 | 終審法院受理律政司上訴，黎智英還押候訊 |
| 30/12/20 | 12港人案中十人被判囚七個月至三年，兩名未成年者移交香港 |
| 28/12/20 | 大廈污水驗出新冠病毒，政府實施強制檢測 |
| 25/12/20 | 黎智英獲准保釋，禁離家受訪發文 |
| 23/12/20 | 政府宣布設立疫苗保障基金，並讓市民選擇接種哪款疫苗 |
| 21/12/20 | 英國出現變種新冠病毒，港府禁止英國客機來港 |
| 17/12/20 | 政府推出第四輪防疫抗疫基金 |
| 12/12/20 | 黎智英被加控「勾結外國或境外勢力危害國家安全」罪 |
| 8/12/20 | 政府再收緊防疫措施，新增禁足及強制檢測權力 |
| 3/12/20 | 黎智英被拒保釋，須還押候訊 |
| 2/12/20 | 前香港眾志成員黃之鋒、林朗彥及周庭被判囚7至13.5個月 |
| 30/11/20 | 政府宣布收緊防疫措施，設立熱線舉報違規行為 |
| 26/11/20 | 教育局宣布改革通識教育科 |
| 25/11/20 | 林鄭月娥發表施政報告 |
| 24/11/20 | 政府宣布收緊防疫措施，強制公眾場所展示安心出行二維碼 |
| 21/11/20 | 警方以涉嫌違反國安法資助分裂國家罪拘捕網台主持等3人 |
| 19/11/20 | 高等法院裁定警察不展示個人編號違反人權法 |
| 17/11/20 | 林鄭月娥及張曉明於基本法頒布30周年法律高峰論壇發表演說 |
| 14/11/20 | 政府宣布收緊防疫措施，推行強制檢測 |
| 11/11/20 | 人大常委取消4名民主派立法會議員資格 |
| 6/11/20 | 國務院副總理韓正與林鄭月娥會晤 |
| 1/11/20 | 警方以涉嫌違反權力及特權法拘捕6名民主派議員 |
| 31/10/20 | 七名8.31暴動案被告被裁定無罪 |
| 21/10/20 | 國泰航空大規模裁員，停運國泰港龍 |
| 12/10/20 | 林鄭月娥押後施政報告 |
| 10/10/20 | 警方以涉嫌協助現被關押深圳的12名港人偷渡拘捕9人 |
| 6/10/20 | 教育局以專業失德為由取消一名小學教師註冊 |
| 1/10/20 | 警方於銅鑼灣等各區拘捕最少86名示威者 |
| 29/9/20 | 民主派公布立法會議員去留問題民意調查結果 |
| 22/9/20 | 警方修改《警察通例》下「傳媒代表」定義 |
| 21/9/20 | 匯豐控股股價創25年新低 |
| 14/9/20 | 178萬人參與普及社區檢測計劃，發現32宗新個案 |
| 12/9/20 | 12名香港青年被扣押深圳逾兩周，被捕人士家屬召開記者會 |
| 11/9/20 | 死因庭陪審團裁定陳彥霖死因存疑 |
| 11/9/20 | 國泰及港龍航空宣布不會申請第二期保就業計劃 |
| 10/9/20 | 警方以在買賣壹傳媒股票時涉嫌詐騙及洗黑錢拘捕15人 |
數據分析
最新調查顯示，與半個月前比較，特首林鄭月娥的評分顯著上升3.4分至32.8分，有39%受訪者給予林鄭月娥0分，民望淨值為負50個百分點。特區政府方面，滿意率淨值為負42個百分點，信任淨值為負21個百分點，兩項數字均比一個月前略為下跌，但變化在抽樣誤差之內。至於市民對現時政治、民生及經濟狀況的滿意程度，滿意淨值分別為負41、負48及負54個百分點，數字與上個月比較分別不大，唯政治狀況的滿意淨值錄得2018年12月以來新高。
五大行政會議成員方面，對比六個月前，市民最熟悉的行政會議非官守議員沒有太大改變。論絕對評分，首位是陳智思，得34.2分；排第二位的是葉劉淑儀，評分為32.8分；而位列第三至第五位的是湯家驊、葉國謙及張宇人，評分分別為32.5、30.0及27.9分。陳智思和湯家驊的評分較半年前錄得顯著升幅。
民情指數方面，最新數字為69.4，較三月上旬下跌0.4點。
March 30, 2021
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials
Press Conference Live
POP releases popularities of CE and principal officials,
ratings of top 5 Executive Councillors along with PSI
Special Announcement
The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.
Abstract
POP successfully interviewed 1,001 and 1,010 Hong Kong residents by random telephone surveys conducted by real interviewers in March. Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam has increased significantly by 3.4 marks compared to half a month ago to 32.8 marks, with 39% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her net popularity stands at negative 50 percentage points. Regarding the HKSAR Government, the net satisfaction now stands at negative 42 percentage points and the net trust value stands at negative 21 percentage points. Both have somewhat dropped compared to a month ago, but the changes have not gone beyond sampling errors. As for people’s satisfaction with the current political, livelihood and economic conditions, the net satisfaction rates are negative 41, negative 48 and negative 54 percentage points respectively. The figures remain more or less the same as last month, but the net satisfaction rate with the political condition has registered a new high since December 2018. Our Top 5 Executive Councillors survey shows that people’s most familiar non-official Executive Councillors have not changed much over the past 6 months. In terms of absolute ratings, Bernard Chan ranked first, attaining 34.2 marks. Regina Ip ranked second, with 32.8 marks. The 3rd to 5th ranks went to Ronny Tong, Ip Kwok-him and Tommy Cheung, who attained 32.5, 30.0 and 27.9 marks respectively. The ratings of Bernard Chan and Ronny Tong have registered significant increases compared to half a year ago. As for the PSI, the latest figure is 69.4, down by 0.4 point from early March. The effective response rate of the rating survey is 56.8%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-8% and that of ratings is +/-2.9 at 95% confidence level.
Contact Information
| Naming stage of Executive Councillors |
Rating stage of Executive Councillors and other surveys |
||
| Date of survey | : | 8-12/3/2021 | 22-25/3/2021 |
| Sample size[1] | : | 1,001 (including 496 landline and 505 mobile samples) | 1,010 (including 507 landline and 503 mobile samples) |
| Effective response rate | : | 47.6% | 56.8% |
| Survey method | : | Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers | |
| Target population | : | Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above | |
| Sampling error[2] | : | Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-8% and that of ratings not more than +/-2.9 at 95% conf. level | |
| Weighting method | : | Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2019”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2019 Edition)”. | |
[1] This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.
[2] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
Popularity of CE and SAR Government
Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:
| Date of survey | 4-8/1/21 | 18-22/1/21 | 2-5/2/21 | 24-26/2/21 | 8-12/3/21 | 22-25/3/21 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 1,000 | 1,011 | 1,018 | 1,000 | 1,001 | 1,010 | -- |
| Response rate | 58.5% | 67.2% | 62.9% | 57.2% | 47.6% | 56.8% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Rating of CE Carrie Lam | 29.0 | 32.0[3] | 31.0 | 33.9 | 29.5[3] | 32.8+/-2.1 | +3.4[3] |
| Vote of confidence in CE Carrie Lam |
19% | 21% | 18% | 23%[3] | 18%[3] | 19+/-2% | -- |
| Vote of no confidence in CE Carrie Lam |
72% | 69% | 70% | 67% | 72%[3] | 68+/-3% | -4% |
| Net approval rate | -54% | -49% | -52% | -43%[3] | -54%[3] | -50+/-5% | +4% |
[3] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Recent popularity figures of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:
| Date of survey | 19-22/10/20 | 23-26/11/20 | 18-22/12/20 | 18-22/1/21 | 24-26/2/21 | 22-25/3/21 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 624-637 | 518-529 | 558-623 | 510-600 | 519 | 570-630 | -- |
| Response rate | 62.2% | 74.6% | 68.7% | 67.2% | 57.2% | 56.8% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Satisfaction rate of SARG performance[4] | 17% | 19% | 17% | 16% | 23%[5] | 21+/-3% | -2% |
| Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance[4] | 69%[5] | 62%[5] | 60% | 61% | 56% | 62+/-4% | +6%[5] |
| Net satisfaction rate | -52% | -43% | -43% | -45% | -33%[5] | -42+/-7% | -8% |
| Mean value[4] | 2.0 | 2.1[5] | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.3[5] | 2.2+/-0.1 | -0.1 |
| Trust in HKSAR Government[4] | 26% | 30% | 29% | 28% | 36%[5] | 32+/-4% | -4% |
| Distrust in HKSAR Government[4] | 61%[5] | 49%[5] | 56%[5] | 51% | 50% | 53+/-4% | +3% |
| Net trust | -35% | -20%[5] | -27% | -23% | -14% | -21+/-8% | -7% |
| Mean value[4] | 2.3 | 2.5[5] | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.5+/-0.1 | -0.1 |
[4] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[5] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
People’s recent appraisals of society’s conditions are summarized as follows:
| Date of survey | 19-22/10/20 | 23-26/11/20 | 18-22/12/20 | 18-22/1/21 | 24-26/2/21 | 22-25/3/21 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 1,020 | 1,085 | 1,014 | 1,011 | 1,000 | 1,010 | -- |
| Response rate | 62.2% | 74.6% | 68.7% | 67.2% | 57.2% | 56.8% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Current political condition: Satisfaction rate[6] |
9% | 15%[7] | 16% | 15% | 18% | 21+/-3% | +3% |
| Current political condition: Dissatisfaction rate[6] |
75% | 66%[7] | 65% | 63% | 61% | 61+/-3% | +1% |
| Net satisfaction rate | -66% | -50%[7] | -50% | -47% | -42% | -41+/-5% | +2% |
| Mean value[6] | 1.7 | 2.0[7] | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1+/-0.1 | +0.1 |
| Current livelihood condition: Satisfaction rate[6] |
14% | 15% | 14% | 15% | 19%[7] | 17+/-2% | -2% |
| Current livelihood condition: Dissatisfaction rate[6] |
67% | 61%[7] | 65% | 62% | 62% | 65+/-3% | +3% |
| Net satisfaction rate | -54% | -46%[7] | -51% | -47% | -43% | -48+/-5% | -5% |
| Mean value[6] | 2.0 | 2.2[7] | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2+/-0.1 | -0.1 |
| Current economic condition: Satisfaction rate[6] |
9% | 10% | 10% | 13% | 12% | 12+/-2% | -- |
| Current economic condition: Dissatisfaction rate[6] |
70% | 64%[7] | 68%[7] | 67% | 68% | 66+/-3% | -2% |
| Net satisfaction rate | -61% | -53%[7] | -59% | -54% | -56% | -54+/-4% | +2% |
| Mean value[6] | 2.0 | 2.1[7] | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1+/-0.1 | -- |
[6] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[7] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam has increased significantly by 3.4 marks compared to half a month ago to 32.8 marks, with 39% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her approval rate is 19%, disapproval rate 68%, giving a net popularity of negative 50 percentage points.
Regarding the HKSAR Government, the latest satisfaction rate is 21%, whereas 62% feel dissatisfied, thus the net satisfaction stands at negative 42 percentage points. The mean score is 2.2, meaning close to “quite dissatisfied” in general. Regarding people’s trust in the HKSAR Government, 32% of the respondents expressed trust, 53% expressed distrust, thus the net trust value is negative 21 percentage points. The mean score is 2.5, meaning between “quite distrust” and “half-half” in general. Both the net satisfaction and the net trust value have somewhat dropped compared to a month ago, but the changes have not gone beyond sampling errors.
As for people’s satisfaction with the current political, livelihood and economic conditions, the latest satisfaction rates are 21%, 17% and 12% respectively, while the net satisfaction rates are negative 41, negative 48 and negative 54 percentage points respectively. The mean scores are 2.1, 2.2 and 2.1 respectively, meaning close to “quite dissatisfied” in general. The figures above remain more or less the same as last month, but the net satisfaction rate with the political condition has registered a new high since December 2018.
Ratings of Top 5 Executive Councillors
In the naming survey, respondents could name, unprompted, up to 5 non-official Executive Councillors whom they knew best. The findings of the naming survey are summarized below, in descending order of naming rates [8]:
| Date of survey | 2-3/9/19 | 17-18/3/20 | 31/8-1/9/20 | 8-12/3/21 | Latest change in ranking |
| Sample size[9] | 510 | 502 | 508 | 538 | -- |
| Response rate | 69.1% | 60.1% | 61.4% | 47.6% | -- |
| Latest findings[10] | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Regina Ip | 31%{1} | 32%{1} | 34%{1} | 30+/-4%{1} | -- |
| Bernard Chan | 16%{3} | 16%{2} | 15%{2} | 17+/-3%{2} | -- |
| Ronny Tong | 19%{2} | 12%{3} | 14%{3} | 12+/-3%{3} | -- |
| Tommy Cheung | 3%{6} | 4%{5} | 7%{4} | 5+/-2%{4} | -- |
| Lam Ching-choi | 1%{10} | 11%{4} | 4%{6} | 4+/-2%{5} | ↑1 |
| Ip Kwok-him | 3%{7} | 3%{6} | 5%{5} | 2+/-1%{6} | ↓1 |
| Arthur Li | 2%{8} | 1%{13} | 3%{8} | 2+/-1%{7} | ↑1 |
| Fanny Law | 6%{4} | 3%{7} | 3%{9} | 2+/-1%{8} | ↑1 |
| Joseph Yam | 4%{5} | 1%{12} | 4%{7} | 2+/-1%{9} | ↓2 |
| Wong Kwok-kin | 1%{11} | <1%{15} | 1%{12} | 1+/-1%{10} | ↑2 |
| Horace Cheung | <1%{15} | 2%{8} | 2%{10} | 1+/-1%{11} | ↓1 |
| Martin Liao | <1%{13} | 1%{9} | <1%{15} | 1+/-1%{12} | ↑3 |
| Jeffrey Lam | 1%{12} | 1%{10} | <1%{16} | <1+/-<1%{13} | ↑3 |
| Laura Cha | 2%{9} | 1%{11} | 2%{11} | <1+/-<1%{14} | ↓3 |
| Kenneth Lau | <1%{14} | <1%{16} | <1%{14} | <1+/-<1%{15} | ↓1 |
| Chow Chung-kong | <1%{16} | <1%{14} | <1%{13} | 0%{16} | ↓3 |
| Wrong answer | 17% | 14% | 11% | 13+/-3% | -- |
| Don’t know/ hard to say |
54% | 59% | 55% | 58+/-4% | -- |
[8] If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.
[9] Before March 2020, weighted count was used to report subsample size. Starting from March 2020, raw count was used instead.
[10] Numbers in curly brackets { } indicate the rankings.
The naming survey showed that Bernard Chan, Regina Ip and Ronny Tong were named most frequently with naming rates of 30%, 17% and 12% respectively. Tommy Cheung, Lam Ching-choi, Ip Kwok-him, Arthur Li, Fanny Law and Joseph Yam followed, with naming rates of 5%, 4%, 2%, 2%, 2% and 2% respectively. However, 13% made a wrong attempt at citing non-official Executive Councillors while 58% had no clue.
Those 6 who were named most frequently then entered the rating survey. In the rating survey, respondents were asked to rate individual councillors using a 0-100 scale, where 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 1 councillor in terms of recognition rate was dropped; the remaining 5 were then ranked according to their support ratings to become the top 5 Executive Councillors. Recent ratings of the top 5 Executive Councillors are summarized below, in descending order of their ratings [11]:
| Date of survey | 3-4/9/19 | 19-20/3/20 | 2-4/9/20 | 22-25/3/21 | Latest change | |
| Sample size[12] | 536 | 502 | 500 | 542-602 | -- | |
| Response rate | 69.9% | 66.2% | 55.8% | 56.8% | -- | |
| Latest findings[13] | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | Recognition rate | -- |
| Bernard Chan | 35.1[14] [15] | 31.1{1}[15] | 29.5{2} | 34.2+/-2.7{1} | 70.0% | +4.6[15] |
| Regina Ip | 30.0{2}[15] | 29.5{2} | 31.0{1} | 32.8+/-2.9{2} | 93.9% | +1.8 |
| Ronny Tong | 24.9{5}[15] | 24.2{5} | 26.8{3} | 32.5+/-2.7{3} | 84.6% | +5.7[15] |
| Ip Kwok-him | -- | 24.6{4} | 26.7{4} | 30.0+/-2.7{4} | 76.3% | +3.2 |
| Tommy Cheung | 27.4{3} | 24.7{3} | 26.6{5} | 27.9+/-2.8{5} | 66.9% | +1.4 |
| Lam Ching-choi | -- | 28.8[14] | 30.1[14] | 31.6+/-2.8[14] | 52.6% | +1.5 |
| Joseph Yam | 44.2{1}[15] | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Fanny Law | 27.3{4}[15] | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
[11] If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.
[12] Before March 2020, weighted count was used to report subsample size. Starting from March 2020, raw count was used instead.
[13] Numbers in curly brackets { } indicate the rankings.
[14] Recognition rates were comparatively low in the rating survey.
[15] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
The latest rating survey showed that Bernard Chan was the most popularly supported non-official Executive Councillor, attaining 34.2 marks. Regina Ip ranked second, with 32.8 marks. The 3rd to 5th ranks went to Ronny Tong, Ip Kwok-him and Tommy Cheung, who attained 32.5, 30.0 and 27.9 marks respectively. In this latest survey, Lam Ching-choi obtained a support rating of 31.6 marks, but he was dropped due to his relatively low recognition rate. The ratings of Bernard Chan and Ronny Tong have registered significant increases compared to half a year ago.
Public Sentiment Index
The Public Sentiment Index (PSI) compiled by POP aims at quantifying Hong Kong people’s sentiments, in order to explain and predict the likelihood of collective behaviour. PSI comprises 2 components: one being Government Appraisal (GA) Score and the other being Society Appraisal (SA) Score. GA refers to people’s appraisal of society’s governance while SA refers to people’s appraisal of the social environment. Both GA and SA scores are compiled from a respective of 4 and 6 opinion survey figures. All PSI, GA and SA scores range between 0 to 200, with 100 meaning normal.
The chart of PSI, GA and SA are shown below:
| Latest figure | Public Sentiment Index (PSI): 69.4 (-0.4) |
Government Appraisal (GA): 70.6 (-1.1) |
Society Appraisal (SA): 67.5 (+0.3) |
Recent values of PSI, GA, SA and 10 fundamental figures are tabulated as follows:
| Cut-off date | 8/1/21 | 22/1/21 | 5/2/21 | 26/2/21 | 12/3/21 | 25/3/21 | Latest change |
| Public Sentiment Index (PSI) | 64.1 | 68.1 | 67.6 | 71.7 | 69.9 | 69.4 | -0.4 |
| Government Appraisal (GA) | 66.6 | 70.2 | 69.4 | 74.9 | 71.6 | 70.6 | -1.1 |
| Rating of CE | 29.0 | 32.0 | 31.0 | 33.9 | 29.5 | 32.8 | +3.4 |
| Net approval rate of CE | -54% | -49% | -52% | -43% | -54% | -50% | +4% |
| Mean value of people’s satisfaction with SARG | 2.1[16] | 2.1 | 2.1[16] | 2.3 | 2.3[16] | 2.2 | -0.1 |
| Mean value of people’s trust in SARG | 2.4[16] | 2.5 | 2.5[16] | 2.6 | 2.6[16] | 2.5 | -0.1 |
| Society Appraisal (SA) | 61.9 | 65.4 | 65.4[16] | 67.2 | 67.2[16] | 67.5 | +0.3 |
| People’s satisfaction with political condition | 2.0[16] | 2.1 | 2.1[16] | 2.1 | 2.1[16] | 2.1 | +0.1 |
| Weighting index of political condition | 0.32 | 0.32[16] | 0.32[16] | 0.32[16] | 0.32[16] | 0.3216] | -- |
| People’s satisfaction with economic condition | 2.0[16] | 2.1 | 2.1[16] | 2.1 | 2.1[16] | 2.1 | -- |
| Weighting index of economic condition | 0.33 | 0.33[16] | 0.33[16] | 0.33[16] | 0.33[16] | 0.3316] | -- |
| People’s satisfaction with livelihood condition | 2.1[16] | 2.2 | 2.2[16] | 2.2 | 2.2[16] | 2.2 | -0.1 |
| Weighting index of livelihood condition | 0.35 | 0.35[16] | 0.35[16] | 0.35[16] | 0.35[16] | 0.3516] | -- |
[16] POP will adopt the latest published figures when there are no respective updates.
As for the meaning of the score values, please refer to the following:
| Score value | Percentile | Score value | Percentile |
| 140-200 | Highest 1% | 0-60 | Lowest 1% |
| 125 | Highest 5% | 75 | Lowest 5% |
| 120 | Highest 10% | 80 | Lowest 10% |
| 110 | Highest 25% | 90 | Lowest 25% |
| 100 being normal level, meaning half above half below | |||
The latest PSI stands at 69.4, down by 0.4 point from early March. It can be considered as among the worst 2% across the past 20 years or so. Among the two component scores of PSI, the Government Appraisal (GA) Score that reflects people’s appraisal of society’s governance decreases by 1.1 points to 70.6, whereas the Society Appraisal (SA) Score that reflects people’s appraisal of the social environment increases by 0.3 point to 67.5. They can both be considered as among the worst 2% across the past 20 years or so.
Opinion Daily
In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.
For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 31 August to 1 September, 2020 while this survey was conducted from 22 to 25 March, 2021. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
| 24/3/21 | The government halts BioNTech vaccination because of packaging defects. |
| 17/3/21 | The Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office and the Liaison Office hold seminars on amending Hong Kong’s electoral system. |
| 15/3/21 | The government expands COVID-19 vaccination priority groups’ coverage. |
| 13/3/21 | The government locks down multiple buildings in the Mid-Levels for compulsory testing. |
| 11/3/21 | The National People’s Congress passes bill on amending Hong Kong’s electoral system. |
| 8/3/21 | A male of age 71 dies after taking the Sinovac vaccine. |
| 6/3/21 | A female of age 55 dies after taking the Sinovac vaccine. |
| 5/3/21 | The National People’s Congress will deliberate on amending Hong Kong’s electoral system. |
| 3/3/21 | Expert committee finds no link between Sinovac vaccine and the death of the male aged 63. |
| 2/3/21 | A male of age 63 dies after taking the Sinovac vaccine. |
| 1/3/21 | The court reviews 47 democrats’ bail application overnight. |
| 28/2/21 | 47 democrats are charged with “conspiracy to commit subversion”. |
| 25/2/21 | The government will distribute e-vouchers for spending worth $5,000 in batches. |
| 24/2/21 | Financial Secretary Paul Chan delivers the Budget. |
| 23/2/21 | The government proposes amendments to laws to regulate oath-taking by public officers, compiling a negative list of behaviours, violators of which will be disqualified. |
| 22/2/21 | Xia Baolong says the Central Government will change the electoral system in Hong Kong to make sure it will be “patriots ruling Hong Kong”. |
| 19/2/21 | The government releases the Governance and Management of RTHK Review Report, and announces that Li Pak-chuen will replace Leung Ka-wing as the Director of Broadcasting. |
| 18/2/21 | Sinovac vaccines arrive in Hong Kong. The government announces the vaccination plan. |
| 16/2/21 | The government lifts the dine-in ban during nighttime, but customers will need to use the “LeaveHomeSafe” app or register. |
| 9/2/21 | The Court of Final Appeal sets aside the High Court’s decision to grant bail to Jimmy Lai. |
| 2/2/21 | The government continues to lock down multiple areas for compulsory testing and says officials may break into flats. |
| 1/2/21 | The government locks down multiple areas for compulsory testing and lowers the threshold of imposing lockdowns. |
| 29/1/21 | The British government announces details of migration using BNO visa; the Chinese and Hong Kong governments announce they will no longer recognise BNO passports. |
| 28/1/21 | The government locks down Tung Fat Building in North Point for compulsory testing. |
| 27/1/21 | Carrie Lam reports to Xi Jinping on her work via video conferencing. |
| 26/1/21 | The government locks down areas around Pitt Street for compulsory testing. |
| 24/1/21 | Lockdown in Jordan ends with 13 cases found in over 7,000 people. |
| 23/1/21 | The government locks down designated areas in Jordan for compulsory testing. |
| 20/1/21 | Queen’s Counsel David Perry steps down as prosecutor in an assembly case involving democrats. |
| 15/1/21 | Mandatory testing is ordered for residents of 20 buildings in Yau Ma Tei. |
| 6/1/21 | Police arrests 53 democrats involved in the pro-democracy primaries who allegedly violated the national security law. |
| 5/1/21 | Geoffrey Ma says details and justifications are needed to call for judicial reform. |
| 4/1/21 | The government announces extension of anti-epidemic measures. Face-to-face classes are suspended in kindergartens, primary and secondary schools until the Lunar New Year holidays. |
| 2/1/21 | The government does not rule out mandatory use of the “LeaveHomeSafe” app. |
| 31/12/20 | The Court of Final Appeal grants leave to appeal to the Department of Justice. Jimmy Lai is remanded in custody. |
| 30/12/20 | Ten among the 12 Hong Kong people case are sentenced to 7 months to 3 years in prison, while two minors are transferred to Hong Kong. |
| 28/12/20 | Mandatory testing is ordered after coronavirus is detected in the sewage from a building. |
| 25/12/20 | Jimmy Lai is granted bail, but barred from leaving home, giving interviews and publishing articles. |
| 23/12/20 | The government sets up indemnity fund for vaccine and lets citizens choose which type of vaccine to take. |
| 21/12/20 | New strains of COVID-19 virus are found in the UK. The Hong Kong government bans passenger flights from the UK. |
| 17/12/20 | The government launches the fourth round of the Anti-epidemic Fund. |
| 12/12/20 | Jimmy Lai is additionally charged with “collusion with a foreign country or with external elements to endanger national security”. |
| 8/12/20 | The government tightens anti-epidemic measures again and empower authorities to impose lockdown and mandatory testing. |
| 3/12/20 | Jimmy Lai is denied bail and remanded in custody. |
| 2/12/20 | Former Demosistō member Joshua Wong, Ivan Lam and Agnes Chow are sentenced to 7 to 13.5 months in prison. |
| 30/11/20 | The government tightens anti-epidemic measures and sets up a hotline for reporting violations. |
| 26/11/20 | The Education Bureau introduces reforms to liberal studies. |
| 25/11/20 | Carrie Lam delivers her Policy Address. |
| 24/11/20 | The government tightens anti-epidemic measures and orders public venues to display QR codes for “Leave Home Safe”. |
| 21/11/20 | Police arrests 3 people including an online radio host who allegedly violated the national security law by providing financial assistance to secession. |
| 19/11/20 | The High Court rules that police officers not displaying their identification numbers violated the Bill of Rights. |
| 17/11/20 | Carrie Lam and Zhang Xiaoming deliver speech at the Basic Law 30th Anniversary Legal Summit. |
| 14/11/20 | The government tightens anti-epidemic measures and imposes mandatory testing. |
| 11/11/20 | NPCSC disqualifies 4 democrats in LegCo. |
| 6/11/20 | Vice-Premier of the State Council Han Zheng meets Carrie Lam. |
| 1/11/20 | Police arrests 6 democrats who allegedly violated the LegCo Powers and Privileges Ordinance. |
| 31/10/20 | Seven defendants accused of rioting on 31 August 2019 are found not guilty. |
| 21/10/20 | Cathay Pacific announces massive lay-offs and closes Cathay Dragon. |
| 12/10/20 | Carrie Lam postpones Policy Address. |
| 10/10/20 | Police arrests 9 people on suspicion of helping the 12 Hong Kong people now being detained in Shenzhen flee Hong Kong. |
| 6/10/20 | The Education Bureau deregisters a primary school teacher for professional misconduct. |
| 1/10/20 | Police arrests at least 86 protesters in various districts including Causeway Bay. |
| 29/9/20 | Democrats announce survey results on whether Legislative Councillors should stay or go. |
| 22/9/20 | Police changes the definition of “media representatives” under the Police General Orders. |
| 21/9/20 | Stock price of HSBC Holdings hits 25-year low. |
| 14/9/20 | The Universal Community Testing Programme ends with 1.78 million people participated and 32 new cases found. |
| 12/9/20 | Twelve Hong Kong youngsters have been detained in Shenzhen for over two weeks. Their family members hold a press conference. |
| 11/9/20 | The jury in the Coroner’s Court returns an open verdict in the death of Chan Yin-lam. |
| 11/9/20 | Cathay Pacific and Cathay Dragon announce they will not apply for the second round of Employment Support Scheme. |
| 10/9/20 | Police arrests 15 people on suspicion of defrauding and money laundering by trading Next Digital shares. |
Data Analysis
Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam has increased significantly by 3.4 marks compared to half a month ago to 32.8 marks, with 39% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her net popularity stands at negative 50 percentage points. Regarding the HKSAR Government, the net satisfaction now stands at negative 42 percentage points and the net trust value stands at negative 21 percentage points. Both have somewhat dropped compared to a month ago, but the changes have not gone beyond sampling errors. As for people’s satisfaction with the current political, livelihood and economic conditions, the net satisfaction rates are negative 41, negative 48 and negative 54 percentage points respectively. The figures remain more or less the same as last month, but the net satisfaction rate with the political condition has registered a new high since December 2018.
Our Top 5 Executive Councillors survey shows that people’s most familiar non-official Executive Councillors have not changed much over the past 6 months. In terms of absolute ratings, Bernard Chan ranked first, attaining 34.2 marks. Regina Ip ranked second, with 32.8 marks. The 3rd to 5th ranks went to Ronny Tong, Ip Kwok-him and Tommy Cheung, who attained 32.5, 30.0 and 27.9 marks respectively. The ratings of Bernard Chan and Ronny Tong have registered significant increases compared to half a year ago.
As for the PSI, the latest figure is 69.4, down by 0.4 point from early March.
