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民研計劃發放政治團體民望 (2021-04-20)

POP releases popularity of political groups (2021-04-20)

2021年4月20日
香港民意研究所發佈會 – 傳媒參考資料

發佈會回顧

民研計劃發放政治團體民望

特別宣佈

香港民意研究計劃(香港民研)前身為香港大學民意研究計劃(港大民研)。公報內的「民研計劃」指的可以是香港民研或其前身港大民研。

公報簡要

民研計劃於三月底至四月初由真實訪問員以隨機抽樣電話訪問方式,分別成功訪問了1,010和1,003名香港居民。最新調查顯示,市民對政治團體的最新支持度排名,首位是民陣,得40.2分;民主黨、公民黨、人民力量、民建聯和自由黨,分別得38.8、38.2、38.2、35.4及35.0分;社民連、工聯會、新民黨和熱血公民分別排第七至十位,得34.6、33.0、29.7及28.7分。在最新調查中,民協和經民聯分別得36.8及29.3分,但由於認知率較低而被剔除。相比六個月前,民主黨、人民力量、社民連和熱血公民的評分顯著下跌,而民建聯、工聯會及經民聯的評分則顯著上升。民陣、民主黨、公民黨和民協的評分是其分別於2005、1994、2006和1991年首次被評分以來新低。社民連和熱血公民評分則創2017年以來新低。實效回應比率分別為56.8%和50.1%。在95%置信水平下,調查的評分誤差不超過+/-3.0。

樣本資料

提名階段 評分階段
調查日期 22-25/3/2021 7-9/4/2021
成功樣本數目[1] 1,010 (包括507個固網及503個手機樣本) 1,003 (包括508個固網及495個手機樣本)
實效回應比率 56.8% 50.1%
調查方法 由真實訪問員進行隨機抽樣電話訪問
訪問對象 18歲或以上操粵語的香港居民
抽樣誤差[2] 在95%置信水平下,評分誤差不超過+/-3.0
加權方法 按照政府統計處提供的統計數字以「反覆多重加權法」作出調整。全港人口年齡及性別分佈統計數字來自《二零一九年年中人口數字》,而教育程度(最高就讀程度)及經濟活動身分統計數字則來自《香港的女性及男性 - 主要統計數字》(2019年版)。

[1]數字為調查的總樣本數目,個別題目則可能只涉及次樣本。有關數字請參閱下列數表內列出的樣本數目。

[2]此公報中所有誤差數字均以95%置信水平計算。95%置信水平,是指倘若以不同隨機樣本重複進行有關調查100次,則95次各自計算出的誤差範圍會包含人口真實數字。由於調查數字涉及抽樣誤差,傳媒引用百分比數字時,應避免使用小數點,在引用評分數字時,則可以使用一個小數點。

最新數據

在提名調查中,被訪者可在未經提示下說出最多10個最熟悉的政治團體,結果首12位最多被訪者提及的政治團體分別是民建聯、民主黨、公民黨、工聯會、自由黨、新民黨、社民連、人民力量、經民聯、熱血公民、民陣及民協,他們於是被納入評分調查。在評分調查中,被訪者就個別政治團體以0至100分進行評分,0分代表絕對不支持,100分代表絕對支持,50分為一半半。統計結果後,認知度最低的兩個再被剔除,之後再按支持度由高至低順序排列,得出十大政治團體。以下是十大政治團體的最新評分,按評分倒序排列[3]

調查日期 3-4/9/19 16-17/4/20 21-22/10/20 7-9/4/21 最新變化
樣本數目[4] 536 500 510 530-705 --
回應比率 69.9% 61.6% 65.9% 50.1% --
最新結果[5] 結果 結果 結果 結果及誤差 認知率 --
民陣 51.2{1} -- -- 40.2+/-3.0{1} 69.3% --
民主黨 44.6{4} 42.9{2} 42.5{2} 38.8+/-2.3{2} 93.0% -3.7[6]
公民黨 45.1{3} 39.4{5}[6] 39.3{4} 38.2+/-2.5{3} 80.9% -1.0
人民力量 42.5{5}[6] 40.0{4} 42.9{1} 38.2+/-2.5{4} 79.9% -4.7[6]
民建聯 26.8{10}[6] 35.2{8}[6] 27.4{9}[6] 35.4+/-2.9{5} 90.4% +8.0[6]
自由黨 37.6{7}[6] 37.7{7} 33.6{7}[6] 35.0+/-2.1{6} 81.5% +1.4
社民連 39.5{6} 39.0{6} 40.7{3} 34.6+/-2.6{7} 76.8% -6.1[6]
工聯會 28.5{9}[6] 32.0{9} 27.4{10}[6] 33.0+/-2.6{8} 88.9% +5.6[6]
新民黨 28.8{8}[6] 29.7{10} 27.8{8} 29.7+/-2.6{9} 77.7% +2.0
熱血公民 -- -- 35.6{6} 28.7+/-2.5{10} 74.5% -6.9[6]
民協 -- 41.6{3} -- 36.8+/-2.6[7] 68.8% --
經民聯 -- 29.6[7] 25.3[6] [7] 29.3+/-2.9[7] 66.6% +4.0[6]
工黨 37.9[6] [7] 35.8[7] 36.8{5} -- -- --
新民主同盟 -- -- 38.4[7] -- -- --
職工盟 38.6[7] -- -- -- -- --

[3]如四捨五入後的數字相同,則會再考慮小數點後的數字。

[4]民研計劃在2020年3月前彙報的次樣本數目為加權數字,2020年3月開始則以原始數字彙報。

[5]括弧{ }內數字為排名。

[6]該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差,表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過,變化在統計學上成立與否,並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義,而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。

[7]於評分調查認知率較低。

最新調查顯示,市民對政治團體的最新支持度排名,首位是民陣,得40.2分;民主黨、公民黨、人民力量、民建聯和自由黨,分別得38.8、38.2、38.2、35.4及35.0分;社民連、工聯會、新民黨和熱血公民分別排第七至十位,得34.6、33.0、29.7及28.7分。在最新調查中,民協和經民聯分別得36.8及29.3分,但由於認知率較低而被剔除。相比六個月前,民主黨、人民力量、社民連和熱血公民的評分顯著下跌,而民建聯、工聯會及經民聯的評分則顯著上升。民陣、民主黨、公民黨和民協的評分是其分別於2005、1994、2006和1991年首次被評分以來新低。社民連和熱血公民評分則創2017年以來新低。

須要說明,躋身「十大政團」的先決條件是巿民的熟悉程度,然後再按支持度排名。「十大」以外的政治團體,支持度可以很高或很低,但由於並非巿民最熟悉的政團,所以不在榜內。

民意日誌

民研計劃於2007年開始與慧科訊業有限公司合作,由慧科訊業按照民研計劃設計的分析方法,將每日大事紀錄傳送至民研計劃,經民研計劃核實後成為「民意日誌」。

由於本新聞公報所涉及的調查項目,上次調查日期為21-22/10/2020,而今次調查日期則為7-9/4/2021,因此是次公報中的「民意日誌」項目便以上述日期為依歸,讓讀者作出比較。以涵蓋率不下25%本地報章每日頭條新聞和報社評論計,在上述期間發生的相關大事包括以下事件,讀者可以自行判斷有關事件有否影響各項民調數字:

30/3/21 人大常委通過修訂基本法,修改香港的選舉制度
24/3/21 政府因復必泰疫苗包裝瑕疵宣布暫停接種
1/3/21 法庭通宵審議47名民主派人士保釋申請
28/2/21 47名民主派人士被控「串謀顛覆國家政權罪」
25/2/21 政府將分期發放5,000元電子消費券
24/2/21 財政司司長陳茂波發表財政預算案
23/2/21 政府提出修例規管公職人員宣誓,列出負面行為清單,違者將取消資格
22/2/21 夏寶龍指中央政府將改變香港選舉制度,確保「愛國者治港」
19/2/21 政府公布香港電台的管治及管理檢討報告,並宣布由李百全接替梁家榮出任廣播處長
18/2/21 科興疫苗抵港,政府公布接種計劃
16/2/21 政府恢復晚市堂食,唯顧客須使用「安心出行」應用程式或登記資料
9/2/21 終審法院撤銷高等法院批准黎智英保釋的決定
4/2/21 林鄭月娥出席立法會答問大會
2/2/21 政府繼續封鎖多區進行強制檢測,並指或破門而入
1/2/21 政府封鎖多區進行強制檢測,並降低封區門檻
29/1/21 英國政府公布BNO簽證移民詳情;中國及香港政府宣布不再承認BNO護照
24/1/21 佐敦封鎖區域解封,逾7,000人中找出13宗個案
20/1/21 英國御用大律師David Perry辭任民主派集結案主控官
6/1/21 警方以涉嫌違反國安法拘捕53名民主派初選相關人士
5/1/21 馬道立指倡議司法機構改革須有細節及理據
4/1/21 政府宣布延長防疫措施,中小學及幼稚園暫停面授課至農曆年假
2/1/21 政府不排除強制市民使用「安心出行」應用程式
31/12/20 終審法院受理律政司上訴,黎智英還押候訊
30/12/20 12港人案中十人被判囚七個月至三年,兩名未成年者移交香港
28/12/20 大廈污水驗出新冠病毒,政府實施強制檢測
25/12/20 黎智英獲准保釋,禁離家受訪發文
23/12/20 政府宣布設立疫苗保障基金,並讓市民選擇接種哪款疫苗
12/12/20 黎智英被加控「勾結外國或境外勢力危害國家安全」罪
8/12/20 政府再收緊防疫措施,新增禁足及強制檢測權力
3/12/20 黎智英被拒保釋,須還押候訊
2/12/20 前香港眾志成員黃之鋒、林朗彥及周庭被判囚7至13.5個月
30/11/20 政府宣布收緊防疫措施,設立熱線舉報違規行為
26/11/20 教育局宣布改革通識教育科
25/11/20 林鄭月娥發表施政報告
24/11/20 政府宣布收緊防疫措施,強制公眾場所展示安心出行二維碼
21/11/20 警方以涉嫌違反國安法資助分裂國家罪拘捕網台主持等3人
19/11/20 高等法院裁定警察不展示個人編號違反人權法
14/11/20 政府宣布收緊防疫措施,推行強制檢測
11/11/20 人大常委取消4名民主派立法會議員資格
1/11/20 警方以涉嫌違反權力及特權法拘捕6名民主派議員
31/10/20 七名8.31暴動案被告被裁定無罪

數據分析

最新調查顯示,市民對政治團體的最新支持度排名,首位是民陣,得40.2分;民主黨、公民黨、人民力量、民建聯和自由黨,分別得38.8、38.2、38.2、35.4及35.0分;社民連、工聯會、新民黨和熱血公民分別排第七至十位,得34.6、33.0、29.7及28.7分。在最新調查中,民協和經民聯分別得36.8及29.3分,但由於認知率較低而被剔除。相比六個月前,民主黨、人民力量、社民連和熱血公民的評分顯著下跌,而民建聯、工聯會及經民聯的評分則顯著上升。民陣、民主黨、公民黨和民協的評分是其分別於2005、1994、2006和1991年首次被評分以來新低。社民連和熱血公民評分則創2017年以來新低。

April 20, 2021
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials

Press Conference Live

POP releases popularity of political groups

Special Announcement

The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.

Abstract

POP successfully interviewed 1,010 and 1,003 Hong Kong residents respectively by random telephone surveys conducted by real interviewers in late March to early April. The latest survey shows that CHRF tops the list and becomes the most popularly supported political group, attaining 40.2 marks. Democratic Party, Civic Party, People Power, DAB and Liberal Party rank the 2nd to 6th with 38.8, 38.2, 38.2, 35.4 and 35.0 marks correspondingly. The 7th to 10th ranks go to LSD, FTU, New People’s Party and Civic Passion which attain 34.6, 33.0, 29.7 and 28.7 marks respectively. In this latest survey, ADPL and BPA obtain support ratings of 36.8 and 29.3 marks respectively, but they are dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates. Compared to six months ago, the ratings of Democratic Party, People Power, LSD and Civic Passion have dropped significantly, whereas, the ratings of DAB, FTU and BPA have increased significantly. The ratings of CHRF, Democratic Party, Civic Party and ADPL register record lows since they were first rated in 2005, 1994, 2006 and 1991 respectively. Meanwhile, the ratings for LSD and Civic Passion register record lows since 2017. The effective response rates of the surveys are 56.8% and 50.1% respectively. The maximum sampling error of ratings is +/-3.0 at 95% confidence level.

Contact Information

Naming stage Rating stage
Date of survey : 22-25/3/2021 7-9/4/2021
Sample size[1] : 1,010 (including 507 landline and 503 mobile samples) 1,003 (including 508 landline and 495 mobile samples)
Effective response rate : 56.8% 50.1%
Survey method : Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers
Target population : Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above
Sampling error[2] : Sampling error of ratings not more than +/-3.0 at 95% conf. level
Weighting method : Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2019”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2019 Edition)”.

[1]This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.

[2]All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.

Latest Figues

In the naming survey, respondents could name, unprompted, up to 10 political groups whom they knew best. Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong (DAB), Democratic Party, Civic Party, Hong Kong Federation of Trade Unions (FTU), Liberal Party, New People’s Party, League of Social Democrats (LSD), People Power, Business and Professionals Alliance for Hong Kong (BPA), Civic Passion, Civil Human Rights Front (CHRF) and Hong Kong Association for Democracy and People's Livelihood (ADPL) were the top 12 political groups mentioned most frequently, they therefore entered the rating survey. In the rating survey, respondents were asked to rate individual political groups using a 0-100 scale, where 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom two political groups in terms of recognition rate were dropped; the remaining 10 were then ranked according to their support ratings to become the top 10 political groups. Recent ratings of the top 10 political groups are summarized below, in descending order of support ratings[3]:

Date of survey 3-4/9/19 16-17/4/20 21-22/10/20 7-9/4/21 Latest change
Sample size[4] 536 500 510 530-705 --
Response rate 69.9% 61.6% 65.9% 50.1% --
Latest findings[5] Finding Finding Finding Finding & error Recognition rate --
CHRF 51.2{1} -- -- 40.2+/-3.0{1} 69.3% --
Democratic Party 44.6{4} 42.9{2} 42.5{2} 38.8+/-2.3{2} 93.0% -3.7[6]
Civic Party 45.1{3} 39.4{5}[6] 39.3{4} 38.2+/-2.5{3} 80.9% -1.0
People Power 42.5{5}[6] 40.0{4} 42.9{1} 38.2+/-2.5{4} 79.9% -4.7[6]
DAB 26.8{10}[6] 35.2{8}[6] 27.4{9}[6] 35.4+/-2.9{5} 90.4% +8.0[6]
Liberal Party 37.6{7}[6] 37.7{7} 33.6{7}[6] 35.0+/-2.1{6} 81.5% +1.4
LSD 39.5{6} 39.0{6} 40.7{3} 34.6+/-2.6{7} 76.8% -6.1[6]
FTU 28.5{9}[6] 32.0{9} 27.4{10}[6] 33.0+/-2.6{8} 88.9% +5.6[6]
New People’s Party 28.8{8}[6] 29.7{10} 27.8{8} 29.7+/-2.6{9} 77.7% +2.0
Civic Passion -- -- 35.6{6} 28.7+/-2.5{10} 74.5% -6.9[6]
ADPL -- 41.6{3} -- 36.8+/-2.6[7] 68.8% --
BPA -- 29.6[7] 25.3[6] [7] 29.3+/-2.9[7] 66.6% +4.0[6]
Labour Party 37.9[6] [7] 35.8[7] 36.8{5} -- -- --
Neo Democrats -- -- 38.4[7] -- -- --
HKCTU 38.6[7] -- -- -- -- --

[3]If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.

[4]Before March 2020, weighted count was used to report subsample size. Starting from March 2020, raw count was used instead.

[5]Numbers in curly brackets { } indicate the rankings.

[6]The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

[7]Recognition rates were comparatively low in the rating survey.

The latest survey shows that CHRF tops the list and becomes the most popularly supported political group, attaining 40.2 marks. Democratic Party, Civic Party, People Power, DAB and Liberal Party rank the 2nd to 6th with 38.8, 38.2, 38.2, 35.4 and 35.0 marks correspondingly. The 7th to 10th ranks go to LSD, FTU, New People’s Party and Civic Passion which attain 34.6, 33.0, 29.7 and 28.7 marks respectively. In this latest survey, ADPL and BPA obtain support ratings of 36.8 and 29.3 marks respectively, but they are dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates. Compared to six months ago, the ratings of Democratic Party, People Power, LSD and Civic Passion have dropped significantly, whereas, the ratings of DAB, FTU and BPA have increased significantly. The ratings of CHRF, Democratic Party, Civic Party and ADPL register record lows since they were first rated in 2005, 1994, 2006 and 1991 respectively. Meanwhile, the ratings for LSD and Civic Passion register record lows since 2017.

It should be noted, however, that our list of “top 10” only includes political groups which are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Other political groups may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are relatively less well-known, they are not included in our final list.

Opinion Daily

In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 21 to 22 October, 2020 while this survey was conducted from 7 to 9 April, 2021. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

30/3/21 NPCSC passes amendments to the Basic Law to amend Hong Kong’s electoral system.
24/3/21 The government halts BioNTech vaccination because of packaging defects.
1/3/21 The court reviews 47 democrats’ bail application overnight.
28/2/21 47 democrats are charged with “conspiracy to commit subversion”.
25/2/21 The government will distribute e-vouchers for spending worth $5,000 in batches.
24/2/21 Financial Secretary Paul Chan delivers the Budget.
23/2/21 The government proposes amendments to laws to regulate oath-taking by public officers, compiling a negative list of behaviours, violators of which will be disqualified.
22/2/21 Xia Baolong says the Central Government will change the electoral system in Hong Kong to make sure it will be “patriots ruling Hong Kong”.
19/2/21 The government releases the Governance and Management of RTHK Review Report, and announces that Li Pak-chuen will replace Leung Ka-wing as the Director of Broadcasting.
18/2/21 Sinovac vaccines arrive in Hong Kong. The government announces the vaccination plan.
16/2/21 The government lifts the dine-in ban during nighttime, but customers will need to use the “LeaveHomeSafe” app or register.
9/2/21 The Court of Final Appeal sets aside the High Court’s decision to grant bail to Jimmy Lai.
4/2/21 Carrie Lam attends the Legislative Council question-and-answer session.
2/2/21 The government continues to lock down multiple areas for compulsory testing and says officials may break into flats.
1/2/21 The government locks down multiple areas for compulsory testing and lowers the threshold of imposing lockdowns.
29/1/21 The British government announces details of migration using BNO visa; the Chinese and Hong Kong governments announce they will no longer recognise BNO passports.
24/1/21 Lockdown in Jordan ends with 13 cases found in over 7,000 people.
20/1/21 Queen’s Counsel David Perry steps down as prosecutor in an assembly case involving democrats.
6/1/21 Police arrests 53 democrats involved in the pro-democracy primaries who allegedly violated the national security law.
5/1/21 Geoffrey Ma says details and justifications are needed to call for judicial reform.
4/1/21 The government announces extension of anti-epidemic measures. Face-to-face classes are suspended in kindergartens, primary and secondary schools until the Lunar New Year holidays.
2/1/21 The government does not rule out mandatory use of the “LeaveHomeSafe” app.
31/12/20 The Court of Final Appeal grants leave to appeal to the Department of Justice. Jimmy Lai is remanded in custody.
30/12/20 Ten among the 12 Hong Kong people case are sentenced to 7 months to 3 years in prison, while two minors are transferred to Hong Kong.
28/12/20 Mandatory testing is ordered after coronavirus is detected in the sewage from a building.
25/12/20 Jimmy Lai is granted bail, but barred from leaving home, giving interviews and publishing articles.
23/12/20 The government sets up indemnity fund for vaccine and lets citizens choose which type of vaccine to take.
12/12/20 Jimmy Lai is additionally charged with “collusion with a foreign country or with external elements to endanger national security”.
8/12/20 The government tightens anti-epidemic measures again and empower authorities to impose lockdown and mandatory testing.
3/12/20 Jimmy Lai is denied bail and remanded in custody.
2/12/20 Former Demosistō member Joshua Wong, Ivan Lam and Agnes Chow are sentenced to 7 to 13.5 months in prison.
30/11/20 The government tightens anti-epidemic measures and sets up a hotline for reporting violations.
26/11/20 The Education Bureau introduces reforms to liberal studies.
25/11/20 Carrie Lam delivers her Policy Address.
24/11/20 The government tightens anti-epidemic measures and orders public venues to display QR codes for “Leave Home Safe”.
21/11/20 Police arrests 3 people including an online radio host who allegedly violated the national security law by providing financial assistance to secession.
19/11/20 The High Court rules that police officers not displaying their identification numbers violated the Bill of Rights.
14/11/20 The government tightens anti-epidemic measures and imposes mandatory testing.
11/11/20 NPCSC disqualifies 4 democrats in LegCo.
1/11/20 Police arrests 6 democrats who allegedly violated the LegCo Powers and Privileges Ordinance.
31/10/20 Seven defendants accused of rioting on 31 August 2019 are found not guilty.

Data Analysis

The latest survey shows that CHRF tops the list and becomes the most popularly supported political group, attaining 40.2 marks. Democratic Party, Civic Party, People Power, DAB and Liberal Party rank the 2nd to 6th with 38.8, 38.2, 38.2, 35.4 and 35.0 marks correspondingly. The 7th to 10th ranks go to LSD, FTU, New People’s Party and Civic Passion which attain 34.6, 33.0, 29.7 and 28.7 marks respectively. In this latest survey, ADPL and BPA obtain support ratings of 36.8 and 29.3 marks respectively, but they are dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates. Compared to six months ago, the ratings of Democratic Party, People Power, LSD and Civic Passion have dropped significantly, whereas, the ratings of DAB, FTU and BPA have increased significantly. The ratings of CHRF, Democratic Party, Civic Party and ADPL register record lows since they were first rated in 2005, 1994, 2006 and 1991 respectively. Meanwhile, the ratings for LSD and Civic Passion register record lows since 2017.

 

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