2021年4月27日
香港民意研究所發佈會 – 傳媒參考資料
發佈會回顧
民研計劃發放特首和政府民望數字、
市民對政府政策範疇評價及民情指數
特別宣佈
香港民意研究計劃(香港民研)前身為香港大學民意研究計劃(港大民研)。公報內的「民研計劃」指的可以是香港民研或其前身港大民研。
公報簡要
民研計劃於四月底由真實訪問員以隨機抽樣電話訪問方式成功訪問了1,004名香港居民。最新調查顯示,特首林鄭月娥的評分為32.0分,有39%受訪者給予林鄭月娥0分,民望淨值為負50個百分點,全部數字與半個月前分別不大。特區政府方面,滿意率淨值為負40個百分點,信任淨值為負20個百分點,同樣與上個月比較變化不大。至於市民對現時政治、民生及經濟狀況的評價,滿意淨值就分別為負39、負49及負49個百分點,以上數字與上個月比較分別不大,唯政治狀況的滿意淨值錄得2018年12月以來新高。特區政府五項具體政策範疇的最新滿意率淨值全部錄得負值,在處理與中央政府關係、維護人權自由、維持經濟繁榮、推行民主步伐和改善民生方面表現的滿意率淨值分別為負13、負25、負37、負38及負46個百分點,所有數字與半年前比較沒有明顯分別。民情指數方面,最新數字為71.3,較四月上旬上升2.3點。調查的實效回應比率為54.5%。在95%置信水平下,調查的百分比誤差不超過+/-4%,淨值誤差不超過+/-8%,評分誤差不超過+/-2.1。
樣本資料
調查日期 | : | 19-22/4/2021 |
調查方法 | : | 由真實訪問員進行隨機抽樣電話訪問 |
訪問對象 | : | 18歲或以上操粵語的香港居民 |
成功樣本數目[1] | : | 1,004 (包括498個固網及506個手機樣本) |
實效回應比率 | : | 54.5% |
抽樣誤差[2] | : | 在95%置信水平下,百分比誤差不超過+/-4%,淨值誤差不超過+/-8%,評分誤差不超過+/-2.1 |
加權方法 | : | 按照政府統計處提供的統計數字以「反覆多重加權法」作出調整。全港人口年齡及性別分佈統計數字來自《二零二零年年中人口數字》,而教育程度(最高就讀程度)及經濟活動身分統計數字則來自《香港的女性及男性 - 主要統計數字》(2020年版)。 |
[1]數字為調查的總樣本數目,個別題目則可能只涉及次樣本。有關數字請參閱下列數表內列出的樣本數目。
[2]此公報中所有誤差數字均以95%置信水平計算。95%置信水平,是指倘若以不同隨機樣本重複進行有關調查100次,則95次各自計算出的誤差範圍會包含人口真實數字。由於調查數字涉及抽樣誤差,傳媒引用百分比數字時,應避免使用小數點,在引用評分數字時,則可以使用一個小數點。
特首及特區政府民望
以下是特首林鄭月娥的最新民望數字:
調查日期 | 2-5/2/21 | 24-26/2/21 | 8-12/3/21 | 22-25/3/21 | 7-9/4/21 | 19-22/4/21 | 最新變化 |
樣本數目 | 1,018 | 1,000 | 1,001 | 1,010 | 1,003 | 1,004 | -- |
回應比率 | 62.9% | 57.2% | 47.6% | 56.8% | 50.1% | 54.5% | -- |
最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及 誤差 |
-- |
特首林鄭月娥評分 | 31.0 | 33.9 | 29.5[3] | 32.8[3] | 30.7 | 32.0+/-2.1 | +1.3 |
林鄭月娥出任特首支持率 | 18% | 23%[3] | 18%[3] | 19% | 20% | 18+/-2% | -2% |
林鄭月娥出任特首反對率 | 70% | 67% | 72%[3] | 68% | 67% | 68+/-3% | -- |
支持率淨值 | -52% | -43%[3] | -54%[3] | -50% | -47% | -50+/-5% | -3% |
[3]該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差,表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過,變化在統計學上成立與否,並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義,而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
以下是特區政府的最新民望數字:
調查日期 | 23-26/11/20 | 18-22/12/20 | 18-22/1/21 | 24-26/2/21 | 22-25/3/21 | 19-22/4/21 | 最新變化 |
樣本數目 | 518-529 | 558-623 | 510-600 | 519 | 570-630 | 548-613 | -- |
回應比率 | 74.6% | 68.7% | 67.2% | 57.2% | 56.8% | 54.5% | -- |
最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及 誤差 |
-- |
特區政府表現滿意率[4] | 19% | 17% | 16% | 23%[5] | 21% | 19+/-3% | -2% |
特區政府表現不滿率[4] | 62%[5] | 60% | 61% | 56% | 62%[5] | 59+/-4% | -3% |
滿意率淨值 | -43% | -43% | -45% | -33%[5] | -42% | -40+/-6% | +1% |
平均量值[4] | 2.1[5] | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.3[5] | 2.2 | 2.2+/-0.1 | -- |
信任特區政府比率[4] | 30% | 29% | 28% | 36%[5] | 32% | 32+/-4% | -- |
不信任特區政府比率[4] | 49%[5] | 56%[5] | 51% | 50% | 53% | 52+/-4% | -1% |
信任淨值 | -20%[5] | -27% | -23% | -14% | -21% | -20+/-8% | +1% |
平均量值[4] | 2.5[5] | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.5+/-0.1 | -- |
[4]數字採自五等量尺。平均量值是把答案按照正面程度,以1分最低5分最高量化成為1、2、3、4、5分,再求取樣本平均數值。
[5]該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差,表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過,變化在統計學上成立與否,並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義,而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
以下是市民對社會狀況的最新評價:
調查日期 | 23-26/11/20 | 18-22/12/20 | 18-22/1/21 | 24-26/2/21 | 22-25/3/21 | 19-22/4/21 | 最新變化 |
樣本數目 | 1,085 | 1,014 | 1,011 | 1,000 | 1,010 | 1,004 | -- |
回應比率 | 74.6% | 68.7% | 67.2% | 57.2% | 56.8% | 54.5% | -- |
最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及 誤差 |
-- |
現時政治狀況滿意率[6] | 15%[7] | 16% | 15% | 18% | 21% | 20+/-3% | -1% |
現時政治狀況不滿率[6] | 66%[7] | 65% | 63% | 61% | 61% | 60+/-3% | -2% |
滿意率淨值 | -50%[7] | -50% | -47% | -42% | -41% | -39+/-5% | +1% |
平均量值[6] | 2.0[7] | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2+/-0.1 | -- |
現時民生狀況滿意率[6] | 15% | 14% | 15% | 19%[7] | 17% | 15+/-2% | -2% |
現時民生狀況不滿率[6] | 61%[7] | 65% | 62% | 62% | 65% | 64+/-3% | -1% |
滿意率淨值 | -46%[7] | -51% | -47% | -43% | -48% | -49+/-5% | -1% |
平均量值[6] | 2.2[7] | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2+/-0.1 | -- |
現時經濟狀況滿意率[6] | 10% | 10% | 13% | 12% | 12% | 14+/-2% | +1% |
現時經濟狀況不滿率[6] | 64%[7] | 68%[7] | 67% | 68% | 66% | 63+/-3% | -3% |
滿意率淨值 | -53%[7] | -59% | -54% | -56% | -54% | -49+/-5% | +5% |
平均量值[6] | 2.1[7] | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2+/-0.1 | +0.1[7] |
[6]數字採自五等量尺。平均量值是把答案按照正面程度,以1分最低5分最高量化成為1、2、3、4、5分,再求取樣本平均數值。
該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差,表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過,變化在統計學上成立與否,並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義,而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
最新調查顯示,特首林鄭月娥的評分為32.0分,有39%受訪者給予林鄭月娥0分,其支持率為18%,反對率為68%,民望淨值為負50個百分點,以上全部數字與半個月前分別不大。
特區政府方面,最新滿意率為19%,不滿率59%,滿意率淨值為負40個百分點。而平均量值為2.2分,即整體上較接近「幾不滿」。信任程度方面,最新的信任比率為32%,不信任比率52%,信任淨值為負20個百分點。而平均量值為2.5分,即整體上介乎「幾不信任」及「一半半」之間。以上數字與上個月比較分別不大。
至於市民對現時政治、民生及經濟狀況的評價,最新滿意率分別為20%、15%及14%,而滿意淨值就分別為負39、負49及負49個百分點,三者的平均量值均為2.2,即整體上較接近「幾不滿」。除了經濟狀況的平均量值顯著上升0.1點外,其他數字與上個月比較分別不大,但政治狀況的滿意淨值就錄得2018年12月以來新高。
市民對政府政策範疇評價
以下是市民對特區政府五項具體政策範疇的最新滿意程度,按滿意率淨值倒序排列:
調查日期 | 17-20/12/18 | 24-28/10/19 | 14-17/4/20 | 23-26/11/20 | 19-22/4/21 | 最新變化 |
樣本數目[8] | 512-540 | 519 | 582-617 | 516-523 | 597-606 | -- |
回應比率 | 60.6% | 68.3% | 64.5% | 74.6% | 54.5% | -- |
最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及 誤差 |
-- |
處理與中央政府關係:滿意率[9] | 56% | 17%[10] | 23%[10] | 33%[10] | 31+/-4% | -2% |
處理與中央政府關係:不滿率[9] | 26%[10] | 60%[10] | 59% | 49%[10] | 44+/-4% | -5% |
滿意率淨值 | 31%[10] | -43%[10] | -36% | -16%[10] | -13+/-7% | +3% |
平均量值[9] | 3.4[10] | 2.1[10] | 2.2 | 2.6[10] | 2.6+/-0.1 | -- |
維護人權自由表現:滿意率[9] | 35% | 22%[10] | 24% | 31%[10] | 29+/-4% | -2% |
維護人權自由表現:不滿率[9] | 46% | 67%[10] | 63% | 52%[10] | 54+/-4% | +2% |
滿意率淨值 | -11% | -45%[10] | -39% | -21%[10] | -25+/-7% | -4% |
平均量值[9] | 2.7 | 2.0[10] | 2.2 | 2.4[10] | 2.4+/-0.1 | -- |
維持經濟繁榮表現:滿意率[9] | 48% | 14%[10] | 24%[10] | 19%[10] | 19+/-3% | +1% |
維持經濟繁榮表現:不滿率[9] | 31% | 68%[10] | 59%[10] | 56% | 57+/-4% | +1% |
滿意率淨值 | 17% | -54%[10] | -35%[10] | -37% | -37+/-7% | -- |
平均量值[9] | 3.1 | 2.0[10] | 2.4[10] | 2.3 | 2.3+/-0.1 | -- |
推行民主步伐:滿意率[9] | 34% | 15%[10] | 21%[10] | 21% | 21+/-3% | -- |
推行民主步伐:不滿率[9] | 50% | 70%[10] | 64%[10] | 60% | 59+/-4% | -1% |
滿意率淨值 | -16% | -55%[10] | -43%[10] | -39% | -38+/-6% | +1% |
平均量值[9] | 2.6 | 1.9[10] | 2.1[10] | 2.1 | 2.2+/-0.1 | -- |
改善民生表現:滿意率[9] | 33% | 15%[10] | 23%[10] | 18%[10] | 16+/-3% | -2% |
改善民生表現:不滿率[9] | 46% | 72%[10] | 62%[10] | 59% | 62+/-4% | +4% |
滿意率淨值 | -13% | -57%[10] | -39%[10] | -41% | -46+/-6% | -6% |
平均量值[9] | 2.7 | 1.9[10] | 2.3[10] | 2.2 | 2.2+/-0.1 | -- |
[8]民研計劃在2020年3月前彙報的次樣本數目為加權數字,2020年3月開始則以原始數字彙報。
[9]數字採自五等量尺。平均量值是把答案按照正面程度,以1分最低5分最高量化成為1、2、3、4、5分,再求取樣本平均數值。
[10]該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差,表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過,變化在統計學上成立與否,並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義,而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
特區政府五項具體政策範疇的最新滿意率淨值全部錄得負值,在處理與中央政府關係、維護人權自由、維持經濟繁榮、推行民主步伐和改善民生方面表現的滿意率淨值分別為負13、負25、負37、負38及負46個百分點,所有數字與半年前比較沒有明顯分別。五項具體政策範疇的平均量值介乎2.2至2.6分,即整體上介乎「幾不滿」及「一半半」之間。
民情指數
民研計劃制定「民情指數」(PSI),目的在於量化香港市民對香港社會的情緒反應,以解釋及預視社會出現集體行動的可能性。民情指數包涵了「政通」和「人和」兩個概念,分別以「政評數值(GA)」和「社評數值(SA)」顯示。「政評數值(GA)」泛指市民對整體政府管治的表現評價,而「社評數值(SA)」則泛指市民對整體社會狀況的評價,分別由四及六項民意數字組合而成。指數本身及兩項數值均以0至200顯示,100代表正常。
以下為民情指數、政評數值及社評數值走勢圖:
最新數值 | 民情指數:71.3 (+2.3) | 政評數值:70.7 (+0.9) | 社評數值:70.8 (+3.3) |
以下是民情指數、政評數值、社評數值,及十項基礎民意數字的近期數值:
截數日期 | 5/2/21 | 26/2/21 | 12/3/21 | 25/3/21 | 9/4/21 | 22/4/21 | 最新變化 |
民情指數 | 67.6 | 71.7 | 69.9 | 69.4 | 69.0 | 71.3 | +2.3 |
政評數值 | 69.4 | 74.9 | 71.6 | 70.6 | 69.8 | 70.7 | +0.9 |
特首評分 | 31.0 | 33.9 | 29.5 | 32.8 | 30.7 | 32.0 | +1.3 |
特首民望淨值 | -52% | -43% | -54% | -50% | -47% | -50% | -3% |
政府滿意程度平均量值 | 2.1[11] | 2.3 | 2.3[11] | 2.2 | 2.2[11] | 2.2 | -- |
政府信任程度平均量值 | 2.5[11] | 2.6 | 2.6[11] | 2.5 | 2.5[11] | 2.5 | -- |
社評數值 | 65.4[11] | 67.2 | 67.2[11] | 67.5 | 67.5[11] | 70.8 | +3.3 |
政治狀況滿意程度 | 2.1[11] | 2.1 | 2.1[11] | 2.1 | 2.1[11] | 2.2 | -- |
政治狀況成份指標權數 | 0.32[11] | 0.32[11] | 0.32[11] | 0.3211] | 0.32[11] | 0.32[11] | -- |
經濟狀況滿意程度 | 2.1[11] | 2.1 | 2.1[11] | 2.1 | 2.1[11] | 2.2 | +0.1 |
經濟狀況成份指標權數 | 0.33[11] | 0.33[11] | 0.33[11] | 0.3311] | 0.33[11] | 0.33[11] | -- |
民生狀況滿意程度 | 2.2[11] | 2.2 | 2.2[11] | 2.2 | 2.2[11] | 2.2 | -- |
民生狀況成份指標權數 | 0.35[11] | 0.35[11] | 0.35[11] | 0.3511] | 0.35[11] | 0.35[11] | -- |
[11]當有關數字沒有更新時,民研計劃會採用最近一次已公佈的數字替代。
各項指數的具體數值,可按下表理解:
指數得分 | 百分位數 | 指數得分 | 百分位數 |
140-200 | 最高1% | 0-60 | 最低1% |
125 | 最高5% | 75 | 最低5% |
120 | 最高10% | 80 | 最低10% |
110 | 最高25% | 90 | 最低25% |
100為正常數值,即半數在上,半數在下 |
民情指數較四月上旬上升2.3點至71.3,數字可以視為過去逾二十年來最差的3個百分比。民情指數的兩個成份數值中,反映市民對整體政府管治表現評價的政評數值上升0.9點至70.7,而反映市民對整體社會狀況評價的社評數值則上升3.3點至70.8。兩者均可以視為過去逾二十年來最差的3個百分比。
民意日誌
民研計劃於2007年開始與慧科訊業有限公司合作,由慧科訊業按照民研計劃設計的分析方法,將每日大事記錄傳送至民研計劃,經民研計劃核實後成為「民意日誌」。
由於本新聞公報所涉及的部分調查項目,上次調查日期為23-26/11/2020,而今次調查日期則為19-22/4/2021,因此是次公報中的「民意日誌」項目便以上述日期為依歸,讓讀者作出比較。以涵蓋率不下25%本地報章每日頭條新聞和報社評論計,在上述期間發生的相關大事包括以下事件,讀者可以自行判斷有關事件有否影響各項民調數字:
17/4/21 | 香港首度在社區發現新冠肺炎變種病毒 |
16/4/21 | 九位知名民主派人士就8月18日集會案被判罪成入獄 |
15/4/21 | 政府舉辦「全民國家安全教育日」 |
13/4/21 | 政府將立法禁止公開呼籲不投票或投白票廢票 |
12/4/21 | 政府宣布以「疫苗氣泡」為基礎調整社交距離措施 |
11/4/21 | 四款儲值支付工具將協助發放電子消費券 |
2/4/21 | 衛生署呼籲長假期聚會須做好防疫措施 |
30/3/21 | 人大常委通過修訂基本法,修改香港的選舉制度 |
29/3/21 | 政府宣布放寬防疫措施 |
27/3/21 | 2021年來首次單日本地零確診 |
24/3/21 | 政府因復必泰疫苗包裝瑕疵宣布暫停接種 |
17/3/21 | 港澳辦和中聯辦就修改香港選舉制度舉辦座談會 |
15/3/21 | 政府擴大新冠疫苗接種優先組別範圍 |
13/3/21 | 政府封鎖半山區多幢大廈進行強制檢測 |
11/3/21 | 全國人大會議通過修改香港的選舉制度 |
8/3/21 | 71歲男子接種科興疫苗後死亡 |
6/3/21 | 55歲女子接種科興疫苗後死亡 |
3/3/21 | 專家委員會指63歲男子死亡事件與疫苗無關 |
2/3/21 | 63歲男子接種科興疫苗後死亡 |
1/3/21 | 法庭通宵審議47名民主派人士保釋申請 |
28/2/21 | 47名民主派人士被控「串謀顛覆國家政權罪」 |
24/2/21 | 財政司司長陳茂波發表財政預算案 |
23/2/21 | 政府提出修例規管公職人員宣誓,列出負面行為清單,違者將取消資格 |
19/2/21 | 政府公布香港電台的管治及管理檢討報告,並宣布由李百全接替梁家榮出任廣播處長 |
18/2/21 | 科興疫苗抵港,政府公布接種計劃 |
16/2/21 | 政府恢復晚市堂食,唯顧客須使用「安心出行」應用程式或登記資料 |
9/2/21 | 終審法院撤銷高等法院批准黎智英保釋的決定 |
4/2/21 | 林鄭月娥出席立法會答問大會 |
2/2/21 | 政府繼續封鎖多區進行強制檢測,並指或破門而入 |
1/2/21 | 政府封鎖多區進行強制檢測,並降低封區門檻 |
29/1/21 | 英國政府公布BNO簽證移民詳情;中國及香港政府宣布不再承認BNO護照 |
28/1/21 | 政府封鎖北角東發大廈進行強制檢測 |
27/1/21 | 林鄭月娥以視像形式向習近平述職 |
26/1/21 | 政府封鎖碧街附近進行強制檢測 |
24/1/21 | 佐敦封鎖區域解封,逾7,000人中找出13宗個案 |
23/1/21 | 政府封鎖佐敦指定區域兩日進行強制檢測 |
22/1/21 | 消息指政府將封鎖油麻地指定區域 |
20/1/21 | 英國御用大律師David Perry辭任民主派集結案主控官 |
18/1/21 | 海洋公園公布改革方案 |
15/1/21 | 政府對油麻地區內20幢大廈居民實施強制檢測 |
6/1/21 | 警方以涉嫌違反國安法拘捕53名民主派初選相關人士 |
5/1/21 | 馬道立指倡議司法機構改革須有細節及理據 |
4/1/21 | 政府宣布延長防疫措施,中小學及幼稚園暫停面授課至農曆年假 |
31/12/20 | 終審法院受理律政司上訴,黎智英還押候訊 |
30/12/20 | 12港人案中十人被判囚七個月至三年,兩名未成年者移交香港 |
28/12/20 | 大廈污水驗出新冠病毒,政府實施強制檢測 |
26/12/20 | 聯合醫院爆發新冠肺炎疫情 |
25/12/20 | 黎智英獲准保釋,禁離家受訪發文 |
23/12/20 | 政府宣布設立疫苗保障基金,並讓市民選擇接種哪款疫苗 |
17/12/20 | 政府推出第四輪防疫抗疫基金 |
12/12/20 | 黎智英被加控「勾結外國或境外勢力危害國家安全」罪 |
11/12/20 | 政府達成新冠疫苗採購協議,疫苗最快1月抵港並開始接種 |
8/12/20 | 政府再收緊防疫措施,新增禁足及強制檢測權力 |
2/12/20 | 前香港眾志成員黃之鋒、林朗彥及周庭被判囚7至13.5個月 |
30/11/20 | 政府宣布收緊防疫措施,設立熱線舉報違規行為 |
26/11/20 | 教育局宣布改革通識教育科 |
25/11/20 | 林鄭月娥發表施政報告 |
數據分析
最新調查顯示,特首林鄭月娥的評分為32.0分,有39%受訪者給予林鄭月娥0分,民望淨值為負50個百分點,全部數字與半個月前分別不大。特區政府方面,滿意率淨值為負40個百分點。信任淨值為負20個百分點,同樣與上個月比較變化不大。至於市民對現時政治、民生及經濟狀況的評價,滿意淨值就分別為負39、負49及負49個百分點,以上數字與上個月比較分別不大,唯政治狀況的滿意淨值錄得2018年12月以來新高。
特區政府五項具體政策範疇的最新滿意率淨值全部錄得負值,在處理與中央政府關係、維護人權自由、維持經濟繁榮、推行民主步伐和改善民生方面表現的滿意率淨值分別為負13、負25、負37、負38及負46個百分點,所有數字與半年前比較沒有明顯分別。
民情指數方面,最新數字為71.3,較四月上旬上升2.3點。
April 27, 2021
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials
Press Conference Live
POP releases popularities of CE and SAR Government,
people’s appraisal of policy areas of the government along with PSI
Special Announcement
The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.
Abstract
POP successfully interviewed 1,004 Hong Kong residents by a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in late April. Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is 32.0 marks, with 39% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her net popularity stands at negative 50 percentage points. All popularity figures have not changed much from half a month ago. Regarding the HKSAR Government, the net satisfaction stands at negative 40 percentage points and net trust value at negative 20 percentage points. Both figures have not changed much from last month. As for people’s satisfaction with the current political, livelihood and economic conditions, the net satisfaction rates are negative 39, negative 49 and negative 49 percentage points respectively. All figures above remain more or less the same as last month, but the net satisfaction rate with the political condition has registered a new high since December 2018. Meanwhile, the latest net satisfaction rates of all five specific policy areas of the HKSAR Government are negative where the net satisfactions of the government’s performance in handling its relation with the Central Government, protecting human rights and freedom, maintaining economic prosperity, its pace of democratic development and improving people’s livelihood are negative 13, negative 25, negative 37, negative 38 and negative 46 percentage points respectively. All these figures have not changed much from half a year ago. As for the PSI, the latest figure is 71.3, up by 2.3 points from early April. The effective response rate of the survey is 54.5%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-8% and that of ratings is +/-2.1 at 95% confidence level.
Contact Information
Date of survey | : | 19-22/4/2021 |
Survey method | : | Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers |
Target population | : | Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above |
Sample size[1] | : | 1,004 (including 498 landline and 506 mobile samples) |
Effective response rate | : | 54.5% |
Sampling error[2] | : | Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-8% and that of ratings not more than +/-2.1 at 95% conf. level |
Weighting method | : | Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2020”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2020 Edition)”. |
[1]This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.
[2]All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
Popularity of CE and SAR Government
Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:
Date of survey | 2-5/2/21 | 24-26/2/21 | 8-12/3/21 | 22-25/3/21 | 7-9/4/21 | 19-22/4/21 | Latest change |
Sample size | 1,018 | 1,000 | 1,001 | 1,010 | 1,003 | 1,004 | -- |
Response rate | 62.9% | 57.2% | 47.6% | 56.8% | 50.1% | 54.5% | -- |
Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
Rating of CE Carrie Lam | 31.0 | 33.9 | 29.5[3] | 32.8[3] | 30.7 | 32.0+/-2.1 | +1.3 |
Vote of confidence in CE Carrie Lam |
18% | 23%[3] | 18%[3] | 19% | 20% | 18+/-2% | -2% |
Vote of no confidence in CE Carrie Lam |
70% | 67% | 72%[3] | 68% | 67% | 68+/-3% | -- |
Net approval rate | -52% | -43%[3] | -54%[3] | -50% | -47% | -50+/-5% | -3% |
[3]The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Recent popularity figures of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:
Date of survey | 23-26/11/20 | 18-22/12/20 | 18-22/1/21 | 24-26/2/21 | 22-25/3/21 | 19-22/4/21 | Latest change |
Sample size | 518-529 | 558-623 | 510-600 | 519 | 570-630 | 548-613 | -- |
Response rate | 74.6% | 68.7% | 67.2% | 57.2% | 56.8% | 54.5% | -- |
Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
Satisfaction rate of SARG performance[4] | 19% | 17% | 16% | 23%[5] | 21% | 19+/-3% | -2% |
Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance[4] | 62%[5] | 60% | 61% | 56% | 62%[5] | 59+/-4% | -3% |
Net satisfaction rate | -43% | -43% | -45% | -33%[5] | -42% | -40+/-6% | +1% |
Mean value[4] | 2.1[5] | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.3[5] | 2.2 | 2.2+/-0.1 | -- |
Trust in HKSAR Government[4] | 30% | 29% | 28% | 36%[5] | 32% | 32+/-4% | -- |
Distrust in HKSAR Government[4] | 49%[5] | 56%[5] | 51% | 50% | 53% | 52+/-4% | -1% |
Net trust | -20%[5] | -27% | -23% | -14% | -21% | -20+/-8% | +1% |
Mean value[4] | 2.5[5] | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.5+/-0.1 | -- |
[4]Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[5]The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
People’s recent appraisals of society’s conditions are summarized as follows:
Date of survey | 23-26/11/20 | 18-22/12/20 | 18-22/1/21 | 24-26/2/21 | 22-25/3/21 | 19-22/4/21 | Latest change |
Sample size | 1,085 | 1,014 | 1,011 | 1,000 | 1,010 | 1,004 | -- |
Response rate | 74.6% | 68.7% | 67.2% | 57.2% | 56.8% | 54.5% | -- |
Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
Current political condition: Satisfaction rate[6] |
15%[7] | 16% | 15% | 18% | 21% | 20+/-3% | -1% |
Current political condition: Dissatisfaction rate[6] |
66%[7] | 65% | 63% | 61% | 61% | 60+/-3% | -2% |
Net satisfaction rate | -50%[7] | -50% | -47% | -42% | -41% | -39+/-5% | +1% |
Mean value[6] | 2.0[7] | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2+/-0.1 | -- |
Current livelihood condition: Satisfaction rate[6] |
15% | 14% | 15% | 19%[7] | 17% | 15+/-2% | -2% |
Current livelihood condition: Dissatisfaction rate[6] |
61%[7] | 65% | 62% | 62% | 65% | 64+/-3% | -1% |
Net satisfaction rate | -46%[7] | -51% | -47% | -43% | -48% | -49+/-5% | -1% |
Mean value[6] | 2.2[7] | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2+/-0.1 | -- |
Current economic condition: Satisfaction rate[6] |
10% | 10% | 13% | 12% | 12% | 14+/-2% | +1% |
Current economic condition: Dissatisfaction rate[6] |
64%[7] | 68%[7] | 67% | 68% | 66% | 63+/-3% | -3% |
Net satisfaction rate | -53%[7] | -59% | -54% | -56% | -54% | -49+/-5% | +5% |
Mean value[6] | 2.1[7] | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2+/-0.1 | +0.1[7] |
[6]Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[7]The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is 32.0 marks, with 39% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her approval rate is 18%, disapproval rate 68%, giving a net popularity of negative 50 percentage points. All popularity figures have not changed much from half a month ago.
Regarding the HKSAR Government, the latest satisfaction rate is 19%, whereas 59% feel dissatisfied, thus the net satisfaction stands at negative 40 percentage points. The mean score is 2.2, meaning close to “quite dissatisfied” in general. Regarding people’s trust in the HKSAR Government, 32% of the respondents expressed trust, 52% expressed distrust, thus the net trust value is negative 20 percentage points. The mean score is 2.5, meaning between “quite distrust” and “half-half” in general. All figures have not changed much from last month.
As for people’s satisfaction with the current political, livelihood and economic conditions, the latest satisfaction rates are 20%, 15% and 14% respectively, while the net satisfaction rates are negative 39, negative 49 and negative 49 percentage points respectively. Three mean scores are 2.2, meaning close to “quite dissatisfied” in general. Except the mean value of economic condition has significantly increased by 0.1, all other figures above remain more or less the same as last month, but the net satisfaction rate with the political condition has registered a new high since December 2018.
People’s Appraisal of Policy Areas of the Government
Recent figures on people’s appraisal of the five specific policy areas of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows, in descending order of net satisfaction rates:
Date of survey | 17-20/12/18 | 24-28/10/19 | 14-17/4/20 | 23-26/11/20 | 19-22/4/21 | Latest change |
Sample size[8] | 512-540 | 519 | 582-617 | 516-523 | 597-606 | -- |
Response rate | 60.6% | 68.3% | 64.5% | 74.6% | 54.5% | -- |
Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
Relation with the Central Government: Satisfaction rate[9] | 56% | 17%[10] | 23%[10] | 33%[10] | 31+/-4% | -2% |
Relation with the Central Government: Dissatisfaction rate[9] | 26%[10] | 60%[10] | 59% | 49%[10] | 44+/-4% | -5% |
Net satisfaction rate | 31%[10] | -43%[10] | -36% | -16%[10] | -13+/-7% | +3% |
Mean value[9] | 3.4[10] | 2.1[10] | 2.2 | 2.6[10] | 2.6+/-0.1 | -- |
Protecting human rights and freedom: Satisfaction rate[9] | 35% | 22%[10] | 24% | 31%[10] | 29+/-4% | -2% |
Protecting human rights and freedom: Dissatisfaction rate[9] | 46% | 67%[10] | 63% | 52%[10] | 54+/-4% | +2% |
Net satisfaction rate | -11% | -45%[10] | -39% | -21%[10] | -25+/-7% | -4% |
Mean value[9] | 2.7 | 2.0[10] | 2.2 | 2.4[10] | 2.4+/-0.1 | -- |
Maintaining economic prosperity: Satisfaction rate[9] | 48% | 14%[10] | 24%[10] | 19%[10] | 19+/-3% | +1% |
Maintaining economic prosperity: Dissatisfaction rate[9] | 31% | 68%[10] | 59%[10] | 56% | 57+/-4% | +1% |
Net satisfaction rate | 17% | -54%[10] | -35%[10] | -37% | -37+/-7% | -- |
Mean value[9] | 3.1 | 2.0[10] | 2.4[10] | 2.3 | 2.3+/-0.1 | -- |
Pace of democratic development: Satisfaction rate[9] | 34% | 15%[10] | 21%[10] | 21% | 21+/-3% | -- |
Pace of democratic development: Dissatisfaction rate[9] | 50% | 70%[10] | 64%[10] | 60% | 59+/-4% | -1% |
Net satisfaction rate | -16% | -55%[10] | -43%[10] | -39% | -38+/-6% | +1% |
Mean value[9] | 2.6 | 1.9[10] | 2.1[10] | 2.1 | 2.2+/-0.1 | -- |
Improving people’s livelihood: Satisfaction rate[9] | 33% | 15%[10] | 23%[10] | 18%[10] | 16+/-3% | -2% |
Improving people’s livelihood: Dissatisfaction rate[9] | 46% | 72%[10] | 62%[10] | 59% | 62+/-4% | +4% |
Net satisfaction rate | -13% | -57%[10] | -39%[10] | -41% | -46+/-6% | -6% |
Mean value[9] | 2.7 | 1.9[10] | 2.3[10] | 2.2 | 2.2+/-0.1 | -- |
[8]Before March 2020, weighted count was used to report subsample size. Starting from March 2020, raw count was used instead.
[9]Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[10]The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
The latest net satisfaction rates of all five specific policy areas of the HKSAR Government are negative. The net satisfaction rates of the government’s performance in handling its relation with the Central Government, protecting human rights and freedom, maintaining economic prosperity, its pace of democratic development and improving people’s livelihood are negative 13, negative 25, negative 37, negative 38 and negative 46 percentage points respectively. All these figures have not changed much from half year ago. The mean values of these five specific policy areas range from 2.1 to 2.6, meaning between “quite dissatisfied” and “half-half” in general.
Public Sentiment Index
The Public Sentiment Index (PSI) compiled by POP aims at quantifying Hong Kong people’s sentiments, in order to explain and predict the likelihood of collective behaviour. PSI comprises 2 components: one being Government Appraisal (GA) Score and the other being Society Appraisal (SA) Score. GA refers to people’s appraisal of society’s governance while SA refers to people’s appraisal of the social environment. Both GA and SA scores are compiled from a respective of 4 and 6 opinion survey figures. All PSI, GA and SA scores range between 0 to 200, with 100 meaning normal.
The chart of PSI, GA and SA are shown below:
Latest figure | Public Sentiment Index (PSI): 71.3 (+2.3) |
Government Appraisal (GA): 70.7 (+0.9) |
Society Appraisal (SA): 70.8 (+3.3) |
Recent values of PSI, GA, SA and 10 fundamental figures are tabulated as follows:
Cut-off date | 5/2/21 | 26/2/21 | 12/3/21 | 25/3/21 | 9/4/21 | 22/4/21 | Latest change |
Public Sentiment Index (PSI) | 67.6 | 71.7 | 69.9 | 69.4 | 69.0 | 71.3 | +2.3 |
Government Appraisal (GA) | 69.4 | 74.9 | 71.6 | 70.6 | 69.8 | 70.7 | +0.9 |
Rating of CE | 31.0 | 33.9 | 29.5 | 32.8 | 30.7 | 32.0 | +1.3 |
Net approval rate of CE | -52% | -43% | -54% | -50% | -47% | -50% | -3% |
Mean value of people’s satisfaction with SARG | 2.1[11] | 2.3 | 2.3[11] | 2.2 | 2.2[11] | 2.2 | -- |
Mean value of people’s trust in SARG | 2.5[11] | 2.6 | 2.6[11] | 2.5 | 2.5[11] | 2.5 | -- |
Society Appraisal (SA) | 65.4[11] | 67.2 | 67.2[11] | 67.5 | 67.5[11] | 70.8 | +3.3 |
People’s satisfaction with political condition | 2.1[11] | 2.1 | 2.1[11] | 2.1 | 2.1[11] | 2.2 | -- |
Weighting index of political condition | 0.32[11] | 0.32[11] | 0.32[11] | 0.3211] | 0.32[11] | 0.32[11] | -- |
People’s satisfaction with economic condition | 2.1[11] | 2.1 | 2.1[11] | 2.1 | 2.1[11] | 2.2 | +0.1 |
Weighting index of economic condition | 0.33[11] | 0.33[11] | 0.33[11] | 0.3311] | 0.33[11] | 0.33[11] | -- |
People’s satisfaction with livelihood condition | 2.2[11] | 2.2 | 2.2[11] | 2.2 | 2.2[11] | 2.2 | -- |
Weighting index of livelihood condition | 0.35[11] | 0.35[11] | 0.35[11] | 0.3511] | 0.35[11] | 0.35[11] | -- |
[11]POP will adopt the latest published figures when there are no respective updates.
As for the meaning of the score values, please refer to the following:
Score value | Percentile | Score value | Percentile |
140-200 | Highest 1% | 0-60 | Lowest 1% |
125 | Highest 5% | 75 | Lowest 5% |
120 | Highest 10% | 80 | Lowest 10% |
110 | Highest 25% | 90 | Lowest 25% |
100 being normal level, meaning half above half below |
The latest PSI stands at 71.3, increased by 2.3 points from early April. It can be considered as among the worst 3% across the past 20 years or so. Among the two component scores of PSI, the Government Appraisal (GA) Score that reflects people’s appraisal of society’s governance increases by 0.9 point to 70.7, whereas the Society Appraisal (SA) Score that reflects people’s appraisal of the social environment increases by 3.3 points to 70.8. They can both be considered as among the worst 3% across the past 20 years or so.
Opinion Daily
In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.
For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 23 to 26 November, 2020 while this survey was conducted from 19 to 22 April, 2021. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
17/4/21 | Coronavirus variant is found in the Hong Kong community for the first time. |
16/4/21 | 9 famous democrats are convicted and jailed for 8.18 assembly. |
15/4/21 | The government holds “National Security Education Day”. |
13/4/21 | The government will make law to ban public call to not vote or cast blank or spoilt votes. |
12/4/21 | The government announces it will adjust social distancing measures with “vaccine bubble” as the basis. |
11/4/21 | Four stored value facilities will assist in the distribution of electronic consumption vouchers. |
2/4/21 | The Department of Health urges taking preventive measures during gatherings in the long weekend. |
30/3/21 | NPCSC passes amendments to the Basic Law to amend Hong Kong’s electoral system. |
29/3/21 | The government relaxes anti-epidemic measures. |
27/3/21 | First day of zero confirmed cases since 2021. |
24/3/21 | The government halts BioNTech vaccination because of packaging defects. |
17/3/21 | The Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office and the Liaison Office hold seminars on amending Hong Kong’s electoral system. |
15/3/21 | The government expands COVID-19 vaccination priority groups’ coverage. |
13/3/21 | The government locks down multiple buildings in the Mid-Levels for compulsory testing. |
11/3/21 | The National People’s Congress passes bill on amending Hong Kong’s electoral system. |
8/3/21 | A male of age 71 dies after taking the Sinovac vaccine. |
6/3/21 | A female of age 55 dies after taking the Sinovac vaccine. |
3/3/21 | Expert committee finds no link between Sinovac vaccine and the death of the male aged 63. |
2/3/21 | A male of age 63 dies after taking the Sinovac vaccine. |
1/3/21 | The court reviews 47 democrats’ bail application overnight. |
28/2/21 | 47 democrats are charged with “conspiracy to commit subversion”. |
24/2/21 | Financial Secretary Paul Chan delivers the Budget. |
23/2/21 | The government proposes amendments to laws to regulate oath-taking by public officers, compiling a negative list of behaviours, violators of which will be disqualified. |
19/2/21 | The government releases the Governance and Management of RTHK Review Report, and announces that Li Pak-chuen will replace Leung Ka-wing as the Director of Broadcasting. |
18/2/21 | Sinovac vaccines arrive in Hong Kong. The government announces the vaccination plan. |
16/2/21 | The government lifts the dine-in ban during nighttime, but customers will need to use the “LeaveHomeSafe” app or register. |
9/2/21 | The Court of Final Appeal sets aside the High Court’s decision to grant bail to Jimmy Lai. |
4/2/21 | Carrie Lam attends the Legislative Council question-and-answer session. |
2/2/21 | The government continues to lock down multiple areas for compulsory testing and says officials may break into flats. |
1/2/21 | The government locks down multiple areas for compulsory testing and lowers the threshold of imposing lockdowns. |
29/1/21 | The British government announces details of migration using BNO visa; the Chinese and Hong Kong governments announce they will no longer recognise BNO passports. |
28/1/21 | The government locks down Tung Fat Building in North Point for compulsory testing. |
27/1/21 | Carrie Lam reports to Xi Jinping on her work via video conferencing. |
26/1/21 | The government locks down areas around Pitt Street for compulsory testing. |
24/1/21 | Lockdown in Jordan ends with 13 cases found in over 7,000 people. |
23/1/21 | The government locks down designated areas in Jordan for compulsory testing. |
22/1/21 | Sources say the government will lock down designated areas in Yau Ma Tei. |
20/1/21 | Queen’s Counsel David Perry steps down as prosecutor in an assembly case involving democrats. |
18/1/21 | Ocean Park announces its reform plan. |
15/1/21 | Mandatory testing is ordered for residents of 20 buildings in Yau Ma Tei. |
6/1/21 | Police arrests 53 democrats involved in the pro-democracy primaries who allegedly violated the national security law. |
5/1/21 | Geoffrey Ma says details and justifications are needed to call for judicial reform. |
4/1/21 | The government announces extension of anti-epidemic measures. Face-to-face classes are suspended in kindergartens, primary and secondary schools until the Lunar New Year holidays. |
31/12/20 | The Court of Final Appeal grants leave to appeal to the Department of Justice. Jimmy Lai is remanded in custody. |
30/12/20 | Ten among the 12 Hong Kong people case are sentenced to 7 months to 3 years in prison, while two minors are transferred to Hong Kong. |
28/12/20 | Mandatory testing is ordered after coronavirus is detected in the sewage from a building. |
26/12/20 | Coronavirus outbreak occurs in United Christian Hospital. |
25/12/20 | Jimmy Lai is granted bail, but barred from leaving home, giving interviews and publishing articles. |
23/12/20 | The government sets up indemnity fund for vaccine and lets citizens choose which type of vaccine to take. |
17/12/20 | The government launches the fourth round of the Anti-epidemic Fund. |
12/12/20 | Jimmy Lai is additionally charged with “collusion with a foreign country or with external elements to endanger national security”. |
11/12/20 | The government has made procurement deals on COVID-19 vaccine and expects arrival and vaccination in January the earliest. |
8/12/20 | The government tightens anti-epidemic measures again and empower authorities to impose lockdown and mandatory testing. |
2/12/20 | Former Demosistō member Joshua Wong, Ivan Lam and Agnes Chow are sentenced to 7 to 13.5 months in prison. |
30/11/20 | The government tightens anti-epidemic measures and sets up a hotline for reporting violations. |
26/11/20 | The Education Bureau introduces reforms to liberal studies. |
25/11/20 | Carrie Lam delivers her Policy Address. |
Data Analysis
Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is 32.0 marks, with 39% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her net popularity stands at negative 50 percentage points. All popularity figures have not changed much from half a month ago. Regarding the HKSAR Government, the net satisfaction stands at negative 40 percentage points and net trust value at negative 20 percentage points. Both figures have not changed much from last month. As for people’s satisfaction with the current political, livelihood and economic conditions, the net satisfaction rates are negative 39, negative 49 and negative 49 percentage points respectively. All figures above remain more or less the same as last month, but the net satisfaction rate with the political condition has registered a new high since December 2018.
The latest net satisfaction rates of all five specific policy areas of the HKSAR Government are negative where the net satisfactions of the government’s performance in handling its relation with the Central Government, protecting human rights and freedom, maintaining economic prosperity, its pace of democratic development and improving people’s livelihood are negative 13, negative 25, negative 37, negative 38 and negative 46 percentage points respectively. All these figures have not changed much from half a year ago.
As for the PSI, the latest figure is 71.3, up by 2.3 points from early April.