2021年5月5日
香港民意研究所發佈會 – 傳媒參考資料
發佈會回顧
民研計劃發放立法會議員民望和台灣及西藏問題調查結果
特別宣佈
香港民意研究計劃(香港民研)前身為香港大學民意研究計劃(港大民研)。公報內的「民研計劃」指的可以是香港民研或其前身港大民研。
公報簡要
民研計劃於四月由真實訪問員以隨機抽樣電話訪問方式,分兩階段成功訪問了1,003和1,004名香港居民。調查顯示,6位最多人認識的議員分別是李慧琼、葉劉淑儀、梁美芬、謝偉俊、鄭松泰和葛珮帆,支持度排首位的是葉劉淑儀,得39.8分。第二至三位是謝偉俊和李慧琼,分別得39.5及38.6分。然後是梁美芬和鄭松泰,分別得32.9及28.3分。而葛珮帆得32.4分,但由於認知率較低而被剔除。李慧琼和梁美芬的評分較上次調查分別顯著上升6.4及7.1分,而謝偉俊的評分則創其2010年首次被評分以來新低。台灣及西藏問題方面,香港市民對兩岸統一有信心的淨值為負18個百分點,較半年前顯著上升18個百分點,創2014年以來新高。國際空間方面,贊成台灣重新加入聯合國的淨值為正6個百分點,較半年前顯著下滑20個百分點,創2011年以來新低。台灣獨立方面,贊成淨值為負18個百分點,較半年前顯著下跌18個百分點。另外,認為「一國兩制」適用於台灣的淨值為負23個百分點,較半年前顯著上升22個百分點。至於西藏問題方面,贊成西藏獨立的淨值為負38個百分點,較半年前顯著下跌25個百分點。評分調查的實效回應比率為54.5%。在95%置信水平下,調查的百分比誤差不超過+/-4%,淨值誤差不超過+/-7%,評分誤差不超過+/-3.2。
樣本資料
立法會議員提名階段 | 立法會議員評分階段和 台灣及西藏問題調查 |
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調查日期 | : | 7-9/4/2021 | 19-22/4/2021 |
成功樣本數目[1] | : | 1,003 (包括508個固網及495個手機樣本) |
1,004 (包括498個固網及506個手機樣本) |
實效回應比率 | : | 50.1% | 54.5% |
調查方法 | : | 由真實訪問員進行隨機抽樣電話訪問 | |
訪問對象 | : | 18歲或以上操粵語的香港居民 | |
抽樣誤差[2] | : | 在95%置信水平下,百分比誤差不超過+/-4%,淨值誤差不超過+/-7%,評分誤差不超過+/-3.2 | |
加權方法 | : | 按照政府統計處提供的統計數字以「反覆多重加權法」作出調整。全港人口年齡及性別分佈統計數字來自《二零二零年年中人口數字》,而教育程度(最高就讀程度)及經濟活動身分統計數字則來自《香港的女性及男性 - 主要統計數字》(2020年版)。 |
[1] 數字為調查的總樣本數目,個別題目則可能只涉及次樣本。有關數字請參閱下列數表內列出的樣本數目。
[2] 此公報中所有誤差數字均以95%置信水平計算。95%置信水平,是指倘若以不同隨機樣本重複進行有關調查100次,則95次各自計算出的誤差範圍會包含人口真實數字。由於調查數字涉及抽樣誤差,傳媒引用百分比數字時,應避免使用小數點,在引用評分數字時,則可以使用一個小數點。
立法會議員民望
在提名調查中,被訪者可在未經提示下說出最多10名最熟悉的議員,結果首6位最多被訪者提及的議員分別是李慧琼、葉劉淑儀、梁美芬、謝偉俊、鄭松泰和葛珮帆,他們於是被納入評分調查。在評分調查中,被訪者就個別議員以0至100分進行評分,0分代表絕對不支持,100分代表絕對支持,50分為一半半。統計結果後,認知度最低的再被剔除,之後再按支持度由高至低順序排列,得出五大立法會議員。以下是五大立法會議員的最新評分,按評分倒序排列[3]:
調查日期 | 7-8/1/20 | 1-2/4/20 | 19-20/10/20 | 19-22/4/21 | 最新變化 | |
樣本數目[4] | 507 | 500 | 504 | 572-658 | -- | |
回應比率 | 70.4% | 68.1% | 58.3% | 54.5% | -- | |
最新結果[5] | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及誤差 | 認知率 | -- |
葉劉淑儀 | -- | -- | -- | 39.8+/-2.7{1} | 93.2% | -- |
謝偉俊 | -- | -- | -- | 39.5+/-2.5{2} | 84.5% | -- |
李慧琼 | 28.6{5} | 32.8{5}[6] | 32.2{4} | 38.6+/-2.8{3} | 91.1% | +6.4[6] |
梁美芬 | -- | -- | 25.9{5} | 32.9+/-2.9{4} | 81.7% | +7.1[6] |
鄭松泰 | -- | -- | -- | 28.3+/-2.6{5} | 74.0% | -- |
葛珮帆 | -- | -- | -- | 32.4+/-3.2[7] | 67.5% | -- |
鄺俊宇 | 64.3{1}[6] | 60.4{1} | 57.3{1} | -- | -- | -- |
涂謹申 | -- | -- | 46.4{2} | -- | -- | -- |
毛孟靜 | 54.0{4}[6] | 50.5{4} | 44.7{3}[6] | -- | -- | -- |
楊岳橋 | 56.7[7] | 53.5{2} | 44.8[6] [7] | -- | -- | -- |
朱凱廸 | -- | 52.6{3} | -- | -- | -- | -- |
譚文豪 | -- | 56.1[7] | -- | -- | -- | -- |
林卓廷 | 56.6{2} | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
陳淑莊 | 56.5{3} | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
[3] 如四捨五入後的數字相同,則會再考慮小數點後的數字。
[4] 民研計劃在2020年3月前彙報的次樣本數目為加權數字,2020年3月開始則以原始數字彙報。
[5] 括弧{ }內數字為排名。
[6] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差,表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過,變化在統計學上成立與否,並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義,而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
[7] 於評分調查認知率較低。
最新調查顯示,市民對立法會議員的最新支持度排名,首位是葉劉淑儀,得39.8分。第二至三位是謝偉俊和李慧琼,分別得39.5及38.6分。然後是梁美芬和鄭松泰,分別得32.9及28.3分。而葛珮帆得32.4分,但由於認知率較低而被剔除。李慧琼和梁美芬的評分較上次調查分別顯著上升6.4及7.1分,而謝偉俊的評分則創其2010年首次被評分以來新低。
須要說明,躋身「五大議員」的先決條件是巿民的熟悉程度,然後再按支持度排名。「五大」以外的議員,支持度可以很高或很低,但由於並非巿民最熟悉的議員,所以不在榜內。
台灣及西藏問題調查
市民對台灣及西藏問題意見的最新結果表列如下:
調查日期 | 7-11/1/19 | 2-8/7/19 | 3-8/1/20 | 19-22/10/20 | 19-22/4/21 | 最新變化 |
樣本數目[8] | 505-550 | 575-648 | 585-657 | 593-629 | 592-613 | -- |
回應比率 | 55.6% | 67.4% | 72.0% | 62.2% | 54.5% | -- |
最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及誤差 | -- |
兩岸統一信心正面比率 | 28%[9] | 27% | 19%[9] | 26%[9] | 33+/-4% | +7%[9] |
兩岸統一信心負面比率 | 60% | 65% | 72%[9] | 61%[9] | 51+/-4% | -11%[9] |
信心淨值 | -33%[9] | -38% | -53%[9] | -36%[9] | -18+/-7% | +18%[9] |
贊成台灣重新加入聯合國比率 | 54% | 57% | 63% | 53%[9] | 44+/-4% | -9%[9] |
反對台灣重新加入聯合國比率 | 29% | 27% | 26% | 27% | 38+/-4% | +11%[9] |
贊成淨值 | 25% | 31% | 36% | 26%[9] | 6+/-7% | -20%[9] |
贊成台灣獨立比率 | 35% | 44%[9] | 48% | 41%[9] | 32+/-4% | -9%[9] |
反對台灣獨立比率 | 50% | 44%[9] | 39%[9] | 41% | 50+/-4% | +9%[9] |
贊成淨值 | -16% | 0%[9] | 9% | 0% | -18+/-7% | -18%[9] |
認為一國兩制適用於台灣的比率 | 29%[9] | 27% | 21%[9] | 18% | 27+/-4% | +8%[9] |
認為一國兩制不適用於台灣的比率 | 59%[9] | 63% | 66% | 63% | 50+/-4% | -14%[9] |
適用淨值 | -30%[9] | -36% | -45% | -45% | -23+/-7% | +22%[9] |
贊成西藏獨立比率 | 19% | 26%[9] | 34%[9] | 28% | 19+/-3% | -9%[9] |
反對西藏獨立比率 | 58% | 53% | 46%[9] | 41% | 57+/-4% | +16%[9] |
贊成淨值 | -39% | -27%[9] | -13%[9] | -13% | -38+/-7% | -25%[9] |
[8] 民研計劃在2020年3月前彙報的次樣本數目為加權數字,2020年3月開始則以原始數字彙報。
[9] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差,表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過,變化在統計學上成立與否,並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義,而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
最新調查顯示,33%被訪的香港市民表示對兩岸統一有信心,51%表示沒有信心,信心淨值為負18個百分點,較半年前顯著上升18個百分點,創2014年以來新高。國際空間方面,44%贊成台灣重新加入聯合國,反對的佔38%,贊成淨值為正6個百分點,較半年前顯著下滑20個百分點,創2011年以來新低。台灣獨立方面,32%表示贊成,反對的佔50%,贊成淨值為負18個百分點,較半年前顯著下跌18個百分點。另外,27%認為「一國兩制」適用於台灣,認為不適用的佔50%,適用淨值為負23個百分點,較半年前顯著上升22個百分點。至於西藏問題方面,57%被訪的香港市民反對西藏獨立,贊成者佔19%,贊成淨值為負38個百分點,較半年前顯著下跌25個百分點。
民意日誌
民研計劃於2007年開始與慧科訊業有限公司合作,由慧科訊業按照民研計劃設計的分析方法,將每日大事紀錄傳送至民研計劃,經民研計劃核實後成為「民意日誌」。
由於本新聞公報所涉及的部分調查項目,上次調查日期為19-20/10/2020,而今次調查日期則為19-22/4/2021,因此是次公報中的「民意日誌」項目便以上述日期為依歸,讓讀者作出比較。以涵蓋率不下25%本地報章每日頭條新聞和報社評論計,在上述期間發生的相關大事包括以下事件,讀者可以自行判斷有關事件有否影響各項民調數字:
16/4/21 | 九位知名民主派人士就8月18日集會案被判罪成入獄 |
15/4/21 | 政府舉辦「全民國家安全教育日」 |
10/4/21 | 阿里巴巴違反《反壟斷法》,被罰182億元人民幣 |
30/3/21 | 人大常委通過修訂基本法,修改香港的選舉制度 |
25/3/21 | 國際品牌拒用新疆棉花,中國消費者發起抵制運動 |
19/3/21 | 中美官員於阿拉斯加會談 |
17/3/21 | 港澳辦和中聯辦就修改香港選舉制度舉辦座談會 |
11/3/21 | 全國人大會議通過修改香港的選舉制度 |
6/3/21 | 國務院副總理韓正出席港澳地區全國政協委員聯組會議 |
5/3/21 | 全國人大十三屆四次會議開幕,李克強發表政府工作報告 |
4/3/21 | 全國政協十三屆四次會議開幕 |
1/3/21 | 法庭通宵審議47名民主派人士保釋申請 |
28/2/21 | 47名民主派人士被控「串謀顛覆國家政權罪」 |
23/2/21 | 政府提出修例規管公職人員宣誓,列出負面行為清單,違者將取消資格 |
22/2/21 | 夏寶龍指中央政府將改變香港選舉制度,確保「愛國者治港」 |
19/2/21 | 政府公布香港電台的管治及管理檢討報告,並宣布由李百全接替梁家榮出任廣播處長 |
9/2/21 | 終審法院撤銷高等法院批准黎智英保釋的決定 |
5/2/21 | 駱惠寧主持中聯辦網上新春酒會並致辭 |
4/2/21 | 林鄭月娥出席立法會答問大會 |
29/1/21 | 英國政府公布BNO簽證移民詳情;中國及香港政府宣布不再承認BNO護照 |
27/1/21 | 林鄭月娥以視像形式向習近平述職 |
20/1/21 | 英國御用大律師David Perry辭任民主派集結案主控官 |
13/1/21 | 巴西當局公布科興疫苗整體有效率為50.4% |
6/1/21 | 警方以涉嫌違反國安法拘捕53名民主派初選相關人士 |
5/1/21 | 馬道立指倡議司法機構改革須有細節及理據 |
31/12/20 | 終審法院受理律政司上訴,黎智英還押候訊 |
30/12/20 | 12港人案中十人被判囚七個月至三年,兩名未成年者移交香港 |
25/12/20 | 黎智英獲准保釋,禁離家受訪發文 |
23/12/20 | 政府宣布設立疫苗保障基金,並讓市民選擇接種哪款疫苗 |
12/12/20 | 黎智英被加控「勾結外國或境外勢力危害國家安全」罪 |
3/12/20 | 黎智英被拒保釋,須還押候訊 |
2/12/20 | 前香港眾志成員黃之鋒、林朗彥及周庭被判囚7至13.5個月 |
30/11/20 | 政府宣布收緊防疫措施,設立熱線舉報違規行為 |
26/11/20 | 教育局宣布改革通識教育科 |
21/11/20 | 警方以涉嫌違反國安法資助分裂國家罪拘捕網台主持等3人 |
19/11/20 | 高等法院裁定警察不展示個人編號違反人權法 |
17/11/20 | 林鄭月娥及張曉明於基本法頒布30周年法律高峰論壇發表演說 |
12/11/20 | 傳媒繼續報導民主派立法會議員資格被取消 |
11/11/20 | 人大常委取消4名民主派立法會議員資格 |
9/11/20 | 消息指人大常委將取消民主派立法會議員資格 |
6/11/20 | 國務院副總理韓正與林鄭月娥會晤 |
1/11/20 | 警方以涉嫌違反權力及特權法拘捕6名民主派議員 |
31/10/20 | 七名8.31暴動案被告被裁定無罪 |
29/10/20 | 中共五中全會通過「十四五」規劃 |
23/10/20 | 習近平出席抗美援朝周年紀念大會並發表演說 |
數據分析
立法會議員民望方面,6位最多人認識的議員分別是李慧琼、葉劉淑儀、梁美芬、謝偉俊、鄭松泰和葛珮帆,支持度排首位的是葉劉淑儀,得39.8分。第二至三位是謝偉俊和李慧琼,分別得39.5及38.6分。然後是梁美芬和鄭松泰,分別得32.9及28.3分。而葛珮帆得32.4分,但由於認知率較低而被剔除。李慧琼和梁美芬的評分較上次調查分別顯著上升6.4及7.1分,而謝偉俊的評分則創其2010年首次被評分以來新低。
台灣及西藏問題方面,香港市民對兩岸統一有信心的淨值為負18個百分點,較半年前顯著上升18個百分點,創2014年以來新高。國際空間方面,贊成台灣重新加入聯合國的淨值為正6個百分點,較半年前顯著下滑20個百分點,創2011年以來新低。台灣獨立方面,贊成淨值為負18個百分點,較半年前顯著下跌18個百分點。另外,認為「一國兩制」適用於台灣的淨值為負23個百分點,較半年前顯著上升22個百分點。至於西藏問題方面,贊成西藏獨立的淨值為負38個百分點,較半年前顯著下跌25個百分點。
May 05, 2021
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials
Press Conference Live
POP releases popularity of Legislative Councillors
and survey results on Taiwan and Tibetan issues
Special Announcement
The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.
Abstract
POP successfully interviewed 1,003 and 1,004 Hong Kong residents respectively by random telephone surveys conducted by real interviewers in April. Our survey shows that Starry Lee, Regina Ip, Priscilla Leung, Paul Tse, Cheng Chung-tai and Elizabeth Quat are the six Legislative Councillors that top people’s mind now. In terms of rating, Regina Ip tops the list with 39.8 marks. Paul Tse and Starry Lee rank the 2nd and 3rd with 39.5 and 38.6 marks respectively. Priscilla Leung and Cheng Chung-tai follow with 32.9 and 28.3 marks respectively, whereas Elizabeth Quat obtains a rating of 32.4 marks, but is dropped due to her relatively low recognition rate. The ratings of Starry Lee and Priscilla Leung have increased significantly by 6.4 and 7.1 marks compared with the last survey, while that of Paul Tse has registered record low since he was first rated in 2010. Regarding Taiwan and Tibetan issues, Hong Kong people’s net confidence in the ultimate reunification across the strait stands at negative 18 percentage points, which has increased significantly by 18 percentage points from half a year ago, registering a record high since 2014. Regarding international space, net support in Taiwan’s rejoining the United Nations stands at positive 6 percentage points, which has dropped significantly by 20 percentage points from half a year ago, registering a record low since 2011. As for the independence of Taiwan, net support stands at negative 18 percentage points, which has dropped significantly by 18 percentage points from half a year ago. Meanwhile, net value in believing “one country, two systems” was applicable to Taiwan stands at negative 23 percentage points, which has increased significantly by 22 percentage points from half a year ago. Regarding Tibetan issues, net support in the independence of Tibet stands at negative 38 percentage points, which has dropped significantly by 25 percentage points from half a year ago. The effective response rate of the rating survey is 54.5%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-7% and that of ratings is +/-3.2 at 95% confidence level.
Contact Information
Naming stage of Legislative Councillors |
Rating stage of Legislative Councillors and Survey on Taiwan and Tibetan issues |
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Date of survey | : | 7-9/4/2021 | 19-22/4/2021 |
Sample size[1] | : | 1,003 (including 508 landline and 495 mobile samples) | 1,004 (including 498 landline and 506 mobile samples) |
Effective response rate | : | 50.1% | 54.5% |
Survey method | : | Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers | |
Target population | : | Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above | |
Sampling error[2] | : | Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-7% and that of ratings not more than +/-3.2 at 95% conf. level | |
Weighting method | : | Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2020”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2020 Edition)”. |
[1] This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.
[2] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
Popularity of Legislative Councillors
In the naming survey, respondents could name, unprompted, up to 10 councillors whom they knew best. Starry Lee, Regina Ip, Priscilla Leung, Paul Tse, Cheng Chung-tai and Elizabeth Quat were the top 6 councillors mentioned most frequently, they therefore entered the rating survey. In the rating survey, respondents were asked to rate individual councillors using a 0-100 scale, where 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom councillor in terms of recognition rate was dropped; the remaining 5 were then ranked according to their support ratings to become the top 5 Legislative Councillors. Recent ratings of the top 5 Legislative Councillors are summarized below, in descending order of support ratings[3]:
Date of survey | 7-8/1/20 | 1-2/4/20 | 19-20/10/20 | 19-22/4/21 | Latest change | |
Sample size[4] | 507 | 500 | 504 | 572-658 | -- | |
Response rate | 70.4% | 68.1% | 58.3% | 54.5% | -- | |
Latest findings[5] | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | Recognition rate | -- |
Regina Ip | -- | -- | -- | 39.8+/-2.7{1} | 93.2% | -- |
Paul Tse | -- | -- | -- | 39.5+/-2.5{2} | 84.5% | -- |
Starry Lee | 28.6{5} | 32.8{5}[6] | 32.2{4} | 38.6+/-2.8{3} | 91.1% | +6.4[6] |
Priscilla Leung | -- | -- | 25.9{5} | 32.9+/-2.9{4} | 81.7% | +7.1[6] |
Cheng Chung-tai | -- | -- | -- | 28.3+/-2.6{5} | 74.0% | -- |
Elizabeth Quat | -- | -- | -- | 32.4+/-3.2[7] | 67.5% | -- |
Roy Kwong | 64.3{1}[6] | 60.4{1} | 57.3{1} | -- | -- | -- |
James To | -- | -- | 46.4{2} | -- | -- | -- |
Claudia Mo | 54.0{4}[6] | 50.5{4} | 44.7{3}[6] | -- | -- | -- |
Alvin Yeung | 56.7[7] | 53.5{2} | 44.8[6] [7] | -- | -- | -- |
Eddie Chu | -- | 52.6{3} | -- | -- | -- | -- |
Jeremy Tam | -- | 56.1[7] | -- | -- | -- | -- |
Lam Cheuk-ting | 56.6{2} | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
Tanya Chan | 56.5{3} | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
[3] If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.
[4] Before March 2020, weighted count was used to report subsample size. Starting from March 2020, raw count was used instead.
[5] Numbers in curly brackets { } indicate the rankings.
[6] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
[7] Recognition rates were comparatively low in the rating survey.
The latest survey shows that Regina Ip is the most popularly supported councillor, attaining 39.8 marks. Paul Tse and Starry Lee rank the 2nd and 3rd with 39.5 and 38.6 marks respectively. Priscilla Leung and Cheng Chung-tai follow with 32.9 and 28.3 marks respectively, whereas Elizabeth Quat obtains a rating of 32.4 marks, but is dropped due to her relatively low recognition rate. The ratings of Starry Lee and Priscilla Leung have increased significantly by 6.4 and 7.1 marks compared with the last survey, while that of Paul Tse has registered record low since he was first rated in 2010.
It should be noted, however, that our list of “top 5” only includes LegCo members who are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Other councillors may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are relatively less well-known, they are not included in our final list.
Taiwan and Tibetan Issues
People’s latest views towards various Taiwan and Tibetan issues are summarized below:
Date of survey | 7-11/1/19 | 2-8/7/19 | 3-8/1/20 | 19-22/10/20 | 19-22/4/21 | Latest change |
Sample size[8] | 505-550 | 575-648 | 585-657 | 593-629 | 592-613 | -- |
Response rate | 55.6% | 67.4% | 72.0% | 62.2% | 54.5% | -- |
Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
Confidence in cross-strait reunification | 28%[9] | 27% | 19%[9] | 26%[9] | 33+/-4% | +7%[9] |
No confidence in cross-strait reunification | 60% | 65% | 72%[9] | 61%[9] | 51+/-4% | -11%[9] |
Net confidence | -33%[9] | -38% | -53%[9] | -36%[9] | -18+/-7% | +18%[9] |
Taiwan rejoining the United Nations: Support rate | 54% | 57% | 63% | 53%[9] | 44+/-4% | -9%[9] |
Taiwan rejoining the United Nations: Opposition rate | 29% | 27% | 26% | 27% | 38+/-4% | +11%[9] |
Net support | 25% | 31% | 36% | 26%[9] | 6+/-7% | -20%[9] |
Taiwan independence: Support rate | 35% | 44%[9] | 48% | 41%[9] | 32+/-4% | -9%[9] |
Taiwan independence: Opposition rate | 50% | 44%[9] | 39%[9] | 41% | 50+/-4% | +9%[9] |
Net support | -16% | 0%[9] | 9% | 0% | -18+/-7% | -18%[9] |
Believe “one country, two systems” is applicable to Taiwan | 29%[9] | 27% | 21%[9] | 18% | 27+/-4% | +8%[9] |
Believe “one country, two systems” is not applicable to Taiwan | 59%[9] | 63% | 66% | 63% | 50+/-4% | -14%[9] |
Net value of applicability | -30%[9] | -36% | -45% | -45% | -23+/-7% | +22%[9] |
Tibet independence: Support rate | 19% | 26%[9] | 34%[9] | 28% | 19+/-3% | -9%[9] |
Tibet independence: Opposition rate | 58% | 53% | 46%[9] | 41% | 57+/-4% | +16%[9] |
Net support | -39% | -27%[9] | -13%[9] | -13% | -38+/-7% | -25%[9] |
[8] Before March 2020, weighted count was used to report subsample size. Starting from March 2020, raw count was used instead.
[9] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
The latest survey reveals that 33% of Hong Kong people interviewed were confident in the ultimate reunification across the strait while 51% expressed no confidence. Net confidence stands at negative 18 percentage points, which has increased significantly by 18 percentage points from half a year ago, registering a record high since 2014. Regarding international space, 44% supported Taiwan’s rejoining the United Nations while 38% opposed that. Net support stands at positive 6 percentage points, which has dropped significantly by 20 percentage points from half a year ago, registering a record low since 2011. As for the independence of Taiwan, 32% supported Taiwan’s independence while 50% opposed it. Net support stands at negative 18 percentage points, which has dropped significantly by 18 percentage points from half a year ago. Meanwhile, 27% believed “one country, two systems” was applicable to Taiwan while 50% believed it was not. Net value of applicability stands at negative 23 percentage points, which has increased significantly by 22 percentage points from half a year ago. Regarding Tibetan issues, 57% of Hong Kong people interviewed opposed the independence of Tibet whereas 19% showed support. Net support stands at negative 38 percentage points, which has dropped significantly by 25 percentage points from half a year ago.
Opinion Daily
In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.
For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 19 to 20 October, 2020 while this survey was conducted from 19 to 22 April, 2021. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
16/4/21 | 9 famous democrats are convicted and jailed for 8.18 assembly. |
15/4/21 | The government holds “National Security Education Day”. |
10/4/21 | Alibaba is fined RMB 18.2 billion for violating anti-monopoly law. |
30/3/21 | NPCSC passes amendments to the Basic Law to amend Hong Kong’s electoral system. |
25/3/21 | Chinese consumers start a boycott campaign against international brands refusing to use Xinjiang cottons. |
19/3/21 | China and US officials meet in Alaska. |
17/3/21 | The Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office and the Liaison Office hold seminars on amending Hong Kong’s electoral system. |
11/3/21 | The National People’s Congress passes bill on amending Hong Kong’s electoral system. |
6/3/21 | Vice-Premier of the State Council Han Zheng attend CPCC joint group meeting about Hong Kong and Macau. |
5/3/21 | The fourth session of the 13th National People’s Congress begins, Li Keqiang delivers the government work report. |
4/3/21 | The fourth session of the 13th Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference begins. |
1/3/21 | The court reviews 47 democrats’ bail application overnight. |
28/2/21 | 47 democrats are charged with “conspiracy to commit subversion”. |
23/2/21 | The government proposes amendments to laws to regulate oath-taking by public officers, compiling a negative list of behaviours, violators of which will be disqualified. |
22/2/21 | Xia Baolong says the Central Government will change the electoral system in Hong Kong to make sure it will be “patriots ruling Hong Kong”. |
19/2/21 | The government releases the Governance and Management of RTHK Review Report, and announces that Li Pak-chuen will replace Leung Ka-wing as the Director of Broadcasting. |
9/2/21 | The Court of Final Appeal sets aside the High Court’s decision to grant bail to Jimmy Lai. |
5/2/21 | Luo Huining holds liaison office’s annual spring reception online and delivers a speech. |
4/2/21 | Carrie Lam attends the Legislative Council question-and-answer session. |
29/1/21 | The British government announces details of migration using BNO visa; the Chinese and Hong Kong governments announce they will no longer recognise BNO passports. |
27/1/21 | Carrie Lam reports to Xi Jinping on her work via video conferencing. |
20/1/21 | Queen’s Counsel David Perry steps down as prosecutor in an assembly case involving democrats. |
13/1/21 | Brazil authority announces that the general efficacy of Sinovac vaccine is 50.4%. |
6/1/21 | Police arrests 53 democrats involved in the pro-democracy primaries who allegedly violated the national security law. |
5/1/21 | Geoffrey Ma says details and justifications are needed to call for judicial reform. |
31/12/20 | The Court of Final Appeal grants leave to appeal to the Department of Justice. Jimmy Lai is remanded in custody. |
30/12/20 | Ten among the 12 Hong Kong people case are sentenced to 7 months to 3 years in prison, while two minors are transferred to Hong Kong. |
25/12/20 | Jimmy Lai is granted bail, but barred from leaving home, giving interviews and publishing articles. |
23/12/20 | The government sets up indemnity fund for vaccine and lets citizens choose which type of vaccine to take. |
12/12/20 | Jimmy Lai is additionally charged with “collusion with a foreign country or with external elements to endanger national security”. |
3/12/20 | Jimmy Lai is denied bail and remanded in custody. |
2/12/20 | Former Demosistō member Joshua Wong, Ivan Lam and Agnes Chow are sentenced to 7 to 13.5 months in prison. |
30/11/20 | The government tightens anti-epidemic measures and sets up a hotline for reporting violations. |
26/11/20 | The Education Bureau introduces reforms to liberal studies. |
21/11/20 | Police arrests 3 people including an online radio host who allegedly violated the national security law by providing financial assistance to secession. |
19/11/20 | The High Court rules that police officers not displaying their identification numbers violated the Bill of Rights. |
17/11/20 | Carrie Lam and Zhang Xiaoming deliver speech at the Basic Law 30th Anniversary Legal Summit. |
12/11/20 | Media continues to report on the disqualification of democrats in LegCo. |
11/11/20 | NPCSC disqualifies 4 democrats in LegCo. |
9/11/20 | Sources say NPCSC will disqualify democrats in LegCo. |
6/11/20 | Vice-Premier of the State Council Han Zheng meets Carrie Lam. |
1/11/20 | Police arrests 6 democrats who allegedly violated the LegCo Powers and Privileges Ordinance. |
31/10/20 | Seven defendants accused of rioting on 31 August 2019 are found not guilty. |
29/10/20 | The fifth plenary session of the Communist Party of China Central Committee passes the 15th Five-Year Plan. |
23/10/20 | Xi Jinping attends anniversary event of the Korean War and delivers a speech. |
Data Analysis
Regarding the popularity of Legislative Councillors, Starry Lee, Regina Ip, Priscilla Leung, Paul Tse, Cheng Chung-tai and Elizabeth Quat are the six councillors that top people’s mind now. In terms of rating, Regina Ip tops the list with 39.8 marks. Paul Tse and Starry Lee rank the 2nd and 3rd with 39.5 and 38.6 marks respectively. Priscilla Leung and Cheng Chung-tai follow with 32.9 and 28.3 marks respectively, whereas Elizabeth Quat obtains a rating of 32.4 marks, but is dropped due to her relatively low recognition rate. The ratings of Starry Lee and Priscilla Leung have increased significantly by 6.4 and 7.1 marks compared with the last survey, while that of Paul Tse has registered record low since he was first rated in 2010.
Regarding Taiwan and Tibetan issues, Hong Kong people’s net confidence in the ultimate reunification across the strait stands at negative 18 percentage points, which has increased significantly by 18 percentage points from half a year ago, registering a record high since 2014. Regarding international space, net support in Taiwan’s rejoining the United Nations stands at positive 6 percentage points, which has dropped significantly by 20 percentage points from half a year ago, registering a record low since 2011. As for the independence of Taiwan, net support stands at negative 18 percentage points, which has dropped significantly by 18 percentage points from half a year ago. Meanwhile, net value in believing “one country, two systems” was applicable to Taiwan stands at negative 23 percentage points, which has increased significantly by 22 percentage points from half a year ago. Regarding Tibetan issues, net support in the independence of Tibet stands at negative 38 percentage points, which has dropped significantly by 25 percentage points from half a year ago.