2021年6月15日香港民意研究所發佈會 – 傳媒參考資料
發佈會回顧
民研計劃發放特首及司長民望數字
以及五項核心社會指標
特別宣佈
香港民意研究計劃（香港民研）前身為香港大學民意研究計劃（港大民研）。公報內的「民研計劃」指的可以是香港民研或其前身港大民研。
公報簡要
民研計劃於六月初由真實訪問員以隨機抽樣電話訪問方式成功訪問了1,008名香港居民。調查顯示，特首林鄭月娥的最新評分為30.3分，有43%受訪者給予林鄭月娥0分，民望淨值為負53個百分點，全部數字與半個月前分別不大。司長方面，政務司司長張建宗的支持度評分為33.2分，民望淨值為負19個百分點，較一個月前顯著回升11個百分點。財政司司長陳茂波的支持度評分為35.4分，民望淨值為負18個百分點，較一個月前變化不大。至於律政司司長鄭若驊，其支持度評分為24.2分，民望淨值為負47個百分點，同樣較一個月前變化不大。以0至10分評價，市民對五項核心社會指標的評分由高至低是「繁榮」、「安定」、「自由」、「法治」和「民主」，得分分別為4.83、4.80、4.77、4.39和3.82分。相比一個月前，「繁榮」、「安定」和「法治」指標皆錄得顯著回升，上升0.38至0.42分不等。調查的實效回應比率為55.1%。在95%置信水平下，調查的百分比誤差不超過+/-4%，淨值誤差不超過+/-6%，評分誤差不超過+/-2.5。
樣本資料
| 調查日期 | ： | 7-10/6/2021 |
| 調查方法 | ： | 由真實訪問員進行隨機抽樣電話訪問 |
| 訪問對象 | ： | 18歲或以上操粵語的香港居民 |
| 成功樣本數目[1] | ： | 1,008 (包括507個固網及501個手機樣本) |
| 實效回應比率 | ： | 55.1% |
| 抽樣誤差[2] | ： | 在95%置信水平下，百分比誤差不超過+/-4%，淨值誤差不超過+/-6%，評分誤差不超過+/-2.5 |
| 加權方法 | ： | 按照政府統計處提供的統計數字以「反覆多重加權法」作出調整。全港人口年齡及性別分佈統計數字來自《二零二零年年中人口數字》，而教育程度（最高就讀程度）及經濟活動身分統計數字則來自《香港的女性及男性 - 主要統計數字》（2020年版）。 |
[1] 數字為調查的總樣本數目，個別題目則可能只涉及次樣本。有關數字請參閱下列數表內列出的樣本數目。
[2] 此公報中所有誤差數字均以95%置信水平計算。95%置信水平，是指倘若以不同隨機樣本重複進行有關調查100次，則95次各自計算出的誤差範圍會包含人口真實數字。由於調查數字涉及抽樣誤差，傳媒引用百分比數字時，應避免使用小數點，在引用評分數字時，則可以使用一個小數點。
特首及問責司局長民望
以下是特首林鄭月娥的最新民望數字：
| 調查日期 | 22-25/3/21 | 7-9/4/21 | 19-22/4/21 | 3-7/5/21 | 17-21/5/21 | 7-10/6/21 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 1,010 | 1,003 | 1,004 | 1,013 | 1,004 | 1,008 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 56.8% | 50.1% | 54.5% | 55.5% | 52.5% | 55.1% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及 誤差 |
-- |
| 特首林鄭月娥評分 | 32.8[3] | 30.7 | 32.0 | 30.4 | 30.8 | 30.3+/-2.1 | -0.5 |
| 林鄭月娥出任特首支持率 | 19% | 20% | 18% | 17% | 18% | 16+/-2% | -2% |
| 林鄭月娥出任特首反對率 | 68% | 67% | 68% | 71% | 68% | 70+/-3% | +2% |
| 支持率淨值 | -50% | -47% | -50% | -54% | -50% | -53+/-5% | -4% |
[3] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
以下是各問責司長的最新民望數字：
| 調查日期 | 2-5/2/21 | 24/2/21[4] | 8-12/3/21 | 7-9/4/21 | 3-7/5/21 | 7-10/6/21 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 529-582 | 859 | 521-548 | 556-639 | 636-700 | 570-692 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 62.9% | 61.0% | 47.6% | 50.1% | 55.5% | 55.1% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及誤差 | -- |
| 政務司司長張建宗評分 | 31.2 | -- | 32.7 | 32.6 | 30.3 | 33.2+/-2.4 | +2.9 |
| 張建宗出任政務司司長支持率 | 16% | -- | 19% | 22% | 17%[5] | 20+/-3% | +3% |
| 張建宗出任政務司司長反對率 | 47% | -- | 44% | 43% | 48% | 39+/-4% | -8%[5] |
| 支持率淨值 | -31% | -- | -25% | -20% | -30%[5] | -19+/-6% | +11%[5] |
| 財政司司長陳茂波評分 | 35.2 | 36.2 | 34.7 | 35.8 | 35.1 | 35.4+/-2.3 | +0.3 |
| 陳茂波出任財政司司長支持率 | 23% | 27% | 26% | 29% | 24% | 25+/-3% | +1% |
| 陳茂波出任財政司司長反對率 | 44% | 51%[5] | 47% | 39%[5] | 42% | 43+/-4% | +1% |
| 支持率淨值 | -21% | -24% | -21% | -10%[5] | -18% | -18+/-6% | -- |
| 律政司司長鄭若驊評分 | 23.8 | -- | 23.9 | 22.7 | 25.0 | 24.2+/-2.5 | -0.9 |
| 鄭若驊出任律政司司長支持率 | 11% | -- | 14% | 14% | 14% | 14+/-3% | -- |
| 鄭若驊出任律政司司長反對率 | 61% | -- | 56% | 61% | 57% | 61+/-4% | +4% |
| 支持率淨值 | -50% | -- | -42% | -47% | -44% | -47+/-6% | -3% |
[4] 調查為財政預算案即時調查，只問及財政司司長評分及支持率。
[5] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
最新調查顯示，特首林鄭月娥的評分為30.3分，有43%受訪者給予林鄭月娥0分，其支持率為16%，反對率為70%，民望淨值為負53個百分點，以上全部數字與半個月前分別不大。
司長方面，政務司司長張建宗的支持度評分為33.2分，支持率為20%，反對率為39%，民望淨值為負19個百分點，較一個月前顯著回升11個百分點。財政司司長陳茂波的支持度評分為35.4分，支持率為25%，反對率為43%，民望淨值為負18個百分點，較一個月前變化不大。至於律政司司長鄭若驊，其支持度評分為24.2分，支持率為14%，反對率為61%，民望淨值為負47個百分點，同樣較一個月前變化不大。
核心社會指標
以下是五項核心社會指標的最新數字：
| 調查日期 | 2-5/2/21 | 8-12/3/21 | 7-9/4/21 | 3-7/5/2021 | 7-10/6/21 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 650-657 | 534-654 | 597-605 | 605-610 | 602-607 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 62.9% | 47.6% | 50.1% | 55.5% | 55.1% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及誤差 | -- |
| 繁榮指標 | 4.96[6] | 4.26[6] | 4.73[6] | 4.41[6] | 4.83+/-0.21 | +0.42[6] |
| 安定指標 | 4.99[6] | 4.26[6] | 4.76[6] | 4.42[6] | 4.80+/-0.24 | +0.39[6] |
| 自由指標 | 5.02[6] | 4.70 | 4.77 | 4.56 | 4.77+/-0.26 | +0.20 |
| 法治指標 | 4.50[6] | 3.92[6] | 4.40[6] | 4.01[6] | 4.39+/-0.25 | +0.38[6] |
| 民主指標 | 4.27[6] | 3.59[6] | 3.68 | 3.56 | 3.82+/-0.27 | +0.26 |
[6] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
以0至10分評價，市民對五項核心社會指標的評分由高至低是「繁榮」、「安定」、「自由」、「法治」和「民主」，得分分別為4.83、4.80、4.77、4.39和3.82分。相比一個月前，「繁榮」、「安定」和「法治」指標皆錄得顯著回升，上升0.38至0.42分不等。
民意日誌
民研計劃於2007年開始與慧科訊業有限公司合作，由慧科訊業按照民研計劃設計的分析方法，將每日大事記錄傳送至民研計劃，經民研計劃核實後成為「民意日誌」。
由於本新聞公報所涉及的部分調查項目，上次調查日期為3-7/5/2021，而今次調查日期則為7-10/6/2021，因此是次公報中的「民意日誌」項目便以上述日期為依歸，讓讀者作出比較。以涵蓋率不下25%本地報章每日頭條新聞和報社評論計，在上述期間發生的相關大事包括以下事件，讀者可以自行判斷有關事件有否影響各項民調數字：
| 10/6/21 | 人大常委通過《反外國制裁法》 |
| 5/6/21 | 香港出現源頭不明新冠肺炎變種病毒個案 |
| 4/6/21 | 警方封鎖維園，阻止六四悼念集會 |
| 31/5/21 | 政府擬限制未接種疫苗者進入各類場所 |
| 30/5/21 | 政府和商界推出措施鼓勵接種疫苗 |
| 29/5/21 | 專家指第四波疫情已經結束 |
| 28/5/21 | 十位知名民主派人士就10月1日集會案被判罪成入獄 |
| 27/5/21 | 立法會通過修改選舉制度 |
| 25/5/21 | 政府宣布將為持雙程證者和難民接種新冠疫苗 |
| 21/5/21 | 部分大學和企業推出措施鼓勵接種疫苗 |
| 20/5/21 | 香港連續27日沒有源頭不明本地個案 |
| 14/5/21 | 政府引用國安法凍結黎智英私人財產 |
| 11/5/21 | 政府購買東京奧運轉播權予五間電視台 |
| 8/5/21 | 衞生署控告兩名變種病毒確診者隱瞞行蹤 |
| 7/5/21 | 政府宣布接種疫苗可以縮短檢疫期 |
| 4/5/21 | 荃威花園R座居民須於檢疫中心檢疫21日 |
| 3/5/21 | 尖沙咀美園大廈居民須於檢疫中心檢疫21日 |
數據分析
調查顯示，特首林鄭月娥的最新評分為30.3分，有43%受訪者給予林鄭月娥0分，民望淨值為負53個百分點，全部數字與半個月前分別不大。
司長方面，政務司司長張建宗的支持度評分為33.2分，民望淨值為負19個百分點，較一個月前顯著回升11個百分點。財政司司長陳茂波的支持度評分為35.4分，民望淨值為負18個百分點，較一個月前變化不大。至於律政司司長鄭若驊，其支持度評分為24.2分，民望淨值為負47個百分點，同樣較一個月前變化不大。
以0至10分評價，市民對五項核心社會指標的評分由高至低是「繁榮」、「安定」、「自由」、「法治」和「民主」，得分分別為4.83、4.80、4.77、4.39和3.82分。相比一個月前，「繁榮」、「安定」和「法治」指標皆錄得顯著回升，上升0.38至0.42分不等。
Jun 15, 2021
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials
Press Conference Live
POP releases popularity figures of CE and Secretaries of Departments
along with five core social indicators
Special Announcement
The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.
Abstract
POP successfully interviewed 1,008 Hong Kong residents by a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in early June. Our survey shows that the latest popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is 30.3 marks, with 43% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her net popularity stands at negative 53 percentage points. All these figures have not changed much from half a month ago. As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 33.2 marks. His net popularity is negative 19 percentage points, registering a significant recovery of 11 percentage points from a month ago. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 35.4 marks. His net popularity is negative 18 percentage points. These figures have not changed much from a month ago. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 24.2 marks, her net popularity is negative 47 percentage points, also not changed much from a month ago. On a scale of 0 to 10, people’s ratings on the five core social indicators ranked from the highest to the lowest are “prosperity”, “stability”, “freedom”, “rule of law” and “democracy”. Their scores are 4.83, 4.80, 4.77, 4.39 and 3.82 respectively. Compared with a month ago, “prosperity”, “stability” and “rule of law” indicators have rebounded significantly, up by 0.38 to 0.42. The effective response rate of the survey is 55.1%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-6% and that of ratings is +/-2.5 at 95% confidence level.
Contact Information
| Date of survey | : | 7-10/6/2021 |
| Survey method | : | Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers |
| Target population | : | Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above |
| Sample size[1] | : | 1,008 (including 507 landline and 501 mobile samples) |
| Effective response rate | : | 55.1% |
| Sampling error[2] | : | Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-6% and that of ratings not more than +/-2.5 at 95% conf. level |
| Weighting method | : | Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2020”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2020 Edition)”. |
[1] This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.
[2] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
Popularity of CE and Principal Officials
Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:
| Date of survey | 22-25/3/21 | 7-9/4/21 | 19-22/4/21 | 3-7/5/21 | 17-21/5/21 | 7-10/6/21 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 1,010 | 1,003 | 1,004 | 1,013 | 1,004 | 1,008 | -- |
| Response rate | 56.8% | 50.1% | 54.5% | 55.5% | 52.5% | 55.1% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Rating of CE Carrie Lam | 32.8[3] | 30.7 | 32.0 | 30.4 | 30.8 | 30.3+/-2.1 | -0.5 |
| Vote of confidence in CE Carrie Lam |
19% | 20% | 18% | 17% | 18% | 16+/-2% | -2% |
| Vote of no confidence in CE Carrie Lam |
68% | 67% | 68% | 71% | 68% | 70+/-3% | +2% |
| Net approval rate | -50% | -47% | -50% | -54% | -50% | -53+/-5% | -4% |
[3] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Recent popularity figures of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:
| Date of survey | 2-5/2/21 | 24/2/21[4] | 8-12/3/21 | 7-9/4/21 | 3-7/5/21 | 7-10/6/21 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 529-582 | 859 | 521-548 | 556-639 | 636-700 | 570-692 | -- |
| Response rate | 62.9% | 61.0% | 47.6% | 50.1% | 55.5% | 55.1% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Rating of CS Matthew Cheung | 31.2 | -- | 32.7 | 32.6 | 30.3 | 33.2+/-2.4 | +2.9 |
| Vote of confidence in CS Matthew Cheung |
16% | -- | 19% | 22% | 17%[5] | 20+/-3% | +3% |
| Vote of no confidence in CS Matthew Cheung |
47% | -- | 44% | 43% | 48% | 39+/-4% | -8%[5] |
| Net approval rate | -31% | -- | -25% | -20% | -30%[5] | -19+/-6% | +11%[5] |
| Rating of FS Paul Chan | 35.2 | 36.2 | 34.7 | 35.8 | 35.1 | 35.4+/-2.3 | +0.3 |
| Vote of confidence in FS Paul Chan | 23% | 27% | 26% | 29% | 24% | 25+/-3% | +1% |
| Vote of no confidence in FS Paul Chan | 44% | 51%[5] | 47% | 39%[5] | 42% | 43+/-4% | +1% |
| Net approval rate | -21% | -24% | -21% | -10%[5] | -18% | -18+/-6% | -- |
| Rating of SJ Teresa Cheng | 23.8 | -- | 23.9 | 22.7 | 25.0 | 24.2+/-2.5 | -0.9 |
| Vote of confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng | 11% | -- | 14% | 14% | 14% | 14+/-3% | -- |
| Vote of no confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng | 61% | -- | 56% | 61% | 57% | 61+/-4% | +4% |
| Net approval rate | -50% | -- | -42% | -47% | -44% | -47+/-6% | -3% |
[4] The survey was the Budget instant poll and only asked about the rating of FS and vote of confidence in him.
[5] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is 30.3 marks, with 43% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her approval rate is 16%, disapproval rate 70%, giving a net popularity of negative 53 percentage points. All popularity figures have not changed much from half a month ago.
As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 33.2 marks. His approval rate is 20%, disapproval rate 39%, giving a net popularity of negative 19 percentage points, registering a significant recovery of 11 percentage points from a month ago. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 35.4 marks, approval rate 25%, disapproval rate 43%, thus a net popularity of negative 18 percentage points. These figures have not changed much from a month ago. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 24.2 marks, approval rate 14%, disapproval rate 61%, giving a net popularity of negative 47 percentage points, also not changed much from a month ago.
Core Social Indicators
Herewith the latest figures of the five core social indicators:
| Date of survey | 2-5/2/21 | 8-12/3/21 | 7-9/4/21 | 3-7/5/2021 | 7-10/6/21 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 650-657 | 534-654 | 597-605 | 605-610 | 602-607 | -- |
| Response rate | 62.9% | 47.6% | 50.1% | 55.5% | 55.1% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Degree of prosperity | 4.96[6] | 4.26[6] | 4.73[6] | 4.41[6] | 4.83+/-0.21 | +0.42[6] |
| Degree of stability | 4.99[6] | 4.26[6] | 4.76[6] | 4.42[6] | 4.80+/-0.24 | +0.39[6] |
| Degree of freedom | 5.02[6] | 4.70 | 4.77 | 4.56 | 4.77+/-0.26 | +0.20 |
| Compliance with the rule of law | 4.50[6] | 3.92[6] | 4.40[6] | 4.01[6] | 4.39+/-0.25 | +0.38[6] |
| Degree of democracy | 4.27[6] | 3.59[6] | 3.68 | 3.56 | 3.82+/-0.27 | +0.26 |
[6] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
On a scale of 0 to 10, people’s ratings on the five core social indicators ranked from the highest to the lowest are “prosperity”, “stability”, “freedom”, “rule of law” and “democracy”. Their scores are 4.83, 4.80, 4.77, 4.39 and 3.82 respectively. Compared with a month ago, “prosperity”, “stability” and “rule of law” indicators have rebounded significantly, up by 0.38 to 0.42.
Opinion Daily
In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.
For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 3 to 7 May, 2021 while this survey was conducted from 7 to 10 June, 2021. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
| 10/6/21 | NPCSC passes “Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law”. |
| 5/6/21 | Hong Kong records an untraceable case involving coronavirus variant. |
| 4/6/21 | Police locks down Victoria Park to prevent June 4 vigil. |
| 31/5/21 | The government plans to restrict unvaccinated persons from entering various premises. |
| 30/5/21 | The government and the business sector launch initiatives to encourage vaccination. |
| 29/5/21 | Expert says the fourth wave of infections has ended. |
| 28/5/21 | 10 famous democrats are convicted and jailed for 10.1 assembly. |
| 27/5/21 | The Legislative Council passes amendments to Hong Kong’s electoral system. |
| 25/5/21 | The government announces it will arrange vaccination for holders of the Exit-entry Permit and refugees. |
| 21/5/21 | Some universities and corporations launch initiatives to encourage vaccination. |
| 20/5/21 | Hong Kong reports no untraceable local cases for 27 consecutive days. |
| 14/5/21 | The government freezes Jimmy Lai’s personal assets under the national security law. |
| 11/5/21 | The government purchases the broadcasting rights of the Tokyo Olympics for five television stations. |
| 8/5/21 | The Department of Health lays charges against two patients infected with coronavirus variant for withholding information on their whereabouts. |
| 7/5/21 | The government announces that vaccinated person can have shorter quarantine period. |
| 4/5/21 | Residents of Block R of Allway Gardens are put into quarantine centre for 21 days. |
| 3/5/21 | Residents of Beauty Mansion in Tsim Sha Tsui are put into quarantine centre for 21 days. |
Data Analysis
Our survey shows that the latest popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is 30.3 marks, with 43% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her net popularity stands at negative 53 percentage points. All these figures have not changed much from half a month ago.
As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 33.2 marks. His net popularity is negative 19 percentage points, registering a significant recovery of 11 percentage points from a month ago. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 35.4 marks. His net popularity is negative 18 percentage points. These figures have not changed much from a month ago. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 24.2 marks, her net popularity is negative 47 percentage points, also not changed much from a month ago.
On a scale of 0 to 10, people’s ratings on the five core social indicators ranked from the highest to the lowest are “prosperity”, “stability”, “freedom”, “rule of law” and “democracy”. Their scores are 4.83, 4.80, 4.77, 4.39 and 3.82 respectively. Compared with a month ago, “prosperity”, “stability” and “rule of law” indicators have rebounded significantly, up by 0.38 to 0.42.
