2021年7月30日香港民意研究所發佈會 – 傳媒參考資料
發佈會回顧
摘要
香港民意研究所轄下之香港民意研究計劃 (香港民研HKPOP) 於 2020 年 4 月 21 日 啟動「疫後復工指數」先導計劃。2021年4月7日，香港民研啟動了「限聚指數」，旨在每天公佈最新市民對「限聚令」的接受程度及市民可接受的限聚人數，該指數今天的數值為15.3，並有88%市民認為現時限聚令太緊。民生大聯盟發言人章彤輝博士指出，「今天香港國際旅遊展開幕，數字給我們啟示，香港以往平均每年有6000萬遊客，現在人數暴跌只餘千分之一。邱騰華局長表示，本港旅遊業困境暫時無法逆轉，但業界可以把握時機準備及重整，從而吸引更多旅客。這番話的重點，是指業界短期內沒有希望，『準備』或『重整』只是典型的官腔。」
背景說明
隨著香港新型冠狀病毒的疫情減退，市民開始討論應該在什麼條件下恢復正常生活。討論焦點先從工作生活開始，再延伸至非工作生活，包括個人、家庭、社區和社會層面。
儘管決定採取什麼政策以協助社會從疫情後回復過來是政府的責任，香港民研還是認為及時了解市民的意見，並以科學佐證促進理性討論甚為重要。
香港民研於 2020 年 4 月 21 日 啟動了名為「疫後復工指數」的先導指數。通過這次先導實驗設計和不斷收集數據之後，香港民研發展了另外三種更精密的指數，統稱為「疫後復常指數」 (PENRI)。
在各復常指數中，有一項為「疫後復聚指數」，旨在表示在市民中，期望政府取消「限聚令」的百分比。可是，隨著「限聚令」政策的發展，香港民研認為有必要修訂所使用的意見題目，以便在現有的政策框架下更好地解釋指數以及表達公眾的看法。以下為調查於2020年4月開始時的意見題目：
你認為疫情如何才適合全面撤銷「限聚令」？
(請盡量選擇最接近的答案；如果完全沒有合適選項，請選擇「不知道／很難說」)
- 應無條件全面撤銷「限聚令」
- 每天康復個案多於新增確診個案
- 每天新增確診個案跌至個位數
- 沒有新增本地確診個案
- 沒有新增本地及外來確診個案
- 連續L日沒有新增本地確診個案 (請在下一頁面輸入L)
- 連續N日沒有新增本地及外來確診個案 (請在下一頁面輸入N)
- 不知道／很難說
你認為連續多少日沒有新增本地確診個案 (即前述的L值) 才適合全面撤銷「限聚令」？
____________________
你認為連續多少日沒有新增本地及外來確診個案 (即前述的N值) 才適合全面撤銷「限聚令」？
____________________
隨著香港社會政治環境的變化，香港民意研究所於2021年4月1日發表聲明，認為在新的社會政治環境下，其作為獨立科研機構的角色將比以往更加重要，研究所稱會不斷檢討和修訂其研究方法，以保持其在本地和國際研究領域的領導角色。數日後，香港民研於2021年4月7日啟動了「限聚指數」，旨在每天公佈最新市民對「限聚令」的接受程度及市民可接受的限聚人數。事實上香港民研在2021年1月已經引入以下意見題目：
你認為香港應否無條件全面撤銷「限聚令」？
- 應該無條件撤銷「限聚令」 跳過與限聚令相關問題
- 不應該，應視乎疫情而定
- 不知道／很難說
你認為每天新增確診個案數應是多少，才適合將「限聚令」訂於2人？
[疫情應為最嚴重情況；參考資訊：2021年3月25日的新增確診個案數為9]
(如不知道／很難說，請輸入99999)
____________________
你認為每天新增確診個案數應是多少，才適合將「限聚令」訂於4人？
[新增個案數應比上一題少]
(如不知道／很難說，請輸入99999)
____________________
你認為每天新增確診個案數應是多少，才適合將「限聚令」訂於8人？
[新增個案數應比上一題少]
(如不知道／很難說，請輸入99999)
____________________
你認為每天新增確診個案數應是多少，才適合將「限聚令」訂於16人？
[新增個案數應比上一題少]
(如不知道／很難說，請輸入99999)
____________________
請於以下欄位列舉你認為合適的 [個案數 及 限聚人數] 組合：
______________________________________________________________________________
由此可見，在詢問市民應否全面撤銷「限聚令」外，新添的調查題目將作更深入的探討，並包括市民按已確診個案數為參考的可接受限聚人數。收集數據後，香港民研會按照每天的確診個案數字，查看有多少受訪者認為當前的「限聚令」政策過於寬鬆，適當或過於苛刻。如果可接受限聚人數低於「限聚令」人數，則會被歸類為「限聚令人數過鬆」。另一方面，如果可接受限聚人數高於「限聚令」人數，則會被歸類為「限聚令人數過嚴」。只有當「限聚令」人數與政策相符時，才會歸類為「限聚令人數合適」。
在經歷幾個月的測試後，香港民研證實市民對「限聚令」的看法並不會急速改變。因此，香港民研決定每月或在政策有改變時才進行一次基準調查，而每日的指數只需在最新基準調查參照表中，查閱每日的確診個案數字即可。當完成一次新的基準調查後，參照表便會更新，新的指數及接受程度均可在新的基準調查參照表中查閱。
從今天的發布開始，我們增加了兩個附錄，分別報告各次基準調查的樣本資料，和由2021年第一日開始的按日限聚指數和限聚接受程度，供各界參考。
最新基準調查樣本資料
| 調查日期 | ： | 16/7 15:00 – 21/7 15:00 |
| 調查方法 | ： | 以電郵接觸群組成員，並於網上完成調查 |
| 訪問對象 | ： | 十二歲或以上的香港市民 |
| 總成功樣本 | ： | 5,636 |
| 回應比率 | ： | 6.1% |
| 抽樣誤差[1] | ： | 95%置信水平，百分比誤差+/-1% |
| 加權方法 | ： | 按照1) 政府統計處提供的全港人口年齡及性別分佈統計數字、各區議會人口數字；2) 選舉事務處提供的區議會選舉結果；3) 常規調查中的特首評分分佈數字，以「反覆多重加權法」作出調整。 |
[1] 此公報中所有誤差數字均以95%置信水平計算。95%置信水平，是指倘若以不同隨機樣本重複進行有關調查100次，則95次各自計算出的誤差範圍會包含人口真實數字。由於調查數字涉及抽樣誤差，傳媒引用百分比數字時，應避免使用小數點，在引用評分數字時，則可以使用一個小數點。
最新數據
表一：限聚接受程度及限聚指數
| 日期 | 24/7/21[2] | 25/7/21[2] | 26/7/21[2] | 27/7/21[2] | 28/7/21[2] | 29/7/21[2] | 30/7/21[2] |
| 確診個案(昨日) | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 太鬆 | 5% | 5% | 6% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 5% |
| 合適 | 7% | 7% | 8% | 0% | 2% | 2% | 7% |
| 太緊 | 88% | 88% | 86% | 96% | 93% | 93% | 88% |
| 限聚指數[3] | 15.3 | 15.3 | 15.1 | 17.2 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 15.3 |
[2] 結果參照第十一次基準調查。
[3]香港民研用最近一次基準調查，模擬運算出20 人為上限設定，這個設定會在每次基準調查後審視一次。
圖一：限聚接受程度及限聚指數
分析評論
民生大聯盟發言人章彤輝博士指出，「今天香港國際旅遊展開幕，數字給我們啟示，香港以往平均每年有6000萬遊客，現在人數暴跌只餘千分之一。邱騰華局長表示，本港旅遊業困境暫時無法逆轉，但業界可以把握時機準備及重整，從而吸引更多旅客。這番話的重點，是指業界短期內沒有希望，『準備』或『重整』只是典型的官腔。」
附錄
請參閱香港民研網站 https://wp.pori.hk
- 基準調查樣本資料總表 https://wp.pori.hk/penri/ggpi-appendix1.html
- 限聚接受程度及限聚指數結果總表 https://wp.pori.hk/penri/ggpi-appendix2.html
Jul 30, 2020
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials
Press Conference Live
Abstract
On 21 April 2020, the Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (POP) under the Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute (HKPORI) piloted the “Post-Epidemic Work Resumption Index (PEWRI, 疫後復工指數)”. On 7 April 2021, POP launched an index called “Group Gathering Prohibition Index (GGPI, 限聚指數)”, aims to indicate people’s acceptance of the “Group Gathering Ban 限聚令” on a daily basis, along with their acceptance of various prohibition limits. GGPI stands at 15.3 today, and 88% considered the current ban too strict. Dr Tung-fai Cheung, Spokesman of Alliance of Revitalizing Economy and Livelihood, observed, “Hong Kong International Travel Expo opened today. The numbers inspire us. There were usually 60 million travellers coming to Hong Kong annually and now we only have one-thousandth of them. The Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau said that while the tough situation of the tourism industry could not be reversed in the short run, the industry should get prepared and reformed to attract more tourists. The message is that tourism has no hope in the near future. The terms ‘prepared’ and ‘reformed’ are just typical bureaucratic jargons.”
Background
As the coronavirus epidemic in Hong Kong subsides, people begin to discuss under what conditions should everyday life go back to normal, starting from one’s work life then non-work life in the personal, family, community and societal domains.
While it may be the government’s responsibility to decide what policies to take in helping society recover after the epidemic, POP considers it important to gauge people’s views in this aspect in a timely manner to facilitate rational deliberations in society based on scientific evidence.
On 21 April 2020, POP piloted the “Post-Epidemic Work Resumption Index (PEWRI, 疫後復工指數)”. After experimenting with a pilot design and collecting data non-stopped, POP has developed three more indexes with more sophisticated designs. They are grouped under the generic name of “Post-Epidemic Normality Resumption Indexes (PENRI, 疫後復常指數)”.
Among the PENRI indexes, there comes an index “Post-Epidemic Gathering Resumption Index” (PEGRI), developed to show the percentage of people wishing to see an end to the government-imposed Group Gathering Ban 限聚令. However, along with the development of the ban, PORI sees the need to revise its survey questions in order to better interpret the figures and to understand the public’s view under the current policy framework. Here are the survey questions firstly used in April 2020:
What do you think is the appropriate timing to completely lift the regulation prohibiting gatherings of more than a specific number of people in public places under the pandemic?
(Please select the closest answer; If there is no suitable answer at all, please select “don’t know / hard to say”.)
- Should completely lift the regulation prohibiting gatherings of more than a specific number of people in public places unconditionally
- Number of recovered cases exceeds newly confirmed cases each day
- Number of newly confirmed cases each day falls to a single digit
- No more newly confirmed local case
- No more newly confirmed local or imported case
- No more newly confirmed local case in L consecutive days (Please input L in the next page)
- No more newly confirmed local and imported case in N consecutive days (Please input N in the next page)
- Don’t know / hard to say
How many consecutive days (the value of L mentioned before) with no more newly confirmed local case do you think there should be before it is appropriate to completely lift the regulation prohibiting gatherings of more than a specific number of people in public places?
____________________
How many consecutive days (the value of N mentioned before) with no more newly confirmed local and imported case do you think there should be before it is appropriate to completely lift the regulation prohibiting gatherings of more than a specific number of people in public places?
____________________
In light of the changing socio-political environment in Hong Kong, HKPORI issued a statement on 1 April 2021 to say that its role as an independent scientific researcher has become more important than ever, and that it would constantly review and revise its research methodologies in order to stay at the forefront of local and international research. A few days later, on 7 April 2021, POP launched its “Group Gathering Prohibition Index (GGPI, 限聚指數)” to indicate people’s acceptance of the “Group Gathering Ban 限聚令” on a daily basis, along with their acceptance of various prohibition limits. As a matter of fact, POP has already introduced the following survey questions in January 2021:
Do you think the regulation prohibiting gatherings of more than a specific number of people in public places should be completely lifted unconditionally in Hong Kong?
- Yes, the ban should be lifted unconditionally Skip questions related to this regulation
- No, it should depend on the epidemic situation
- Don’t know / hard to say
How many newly confirmed cases each day should there be before it would be appropriate to prohibit gatherings of more than 2 people?
[The pandemic should be at its worst; For reference, there are 9 newly confirmed cases on March 25, 2021]
(To opt for “don’t know / hard to say”, please input 99999)
____________________
How many newly confirmed cases each day should there be before it would be appropriate to prohibit gatherings of more than 4 people?
[The number of newly confirmed cases should be fewer than that in the previous question]
(To opt for “don’t know / hard to say”, please input 99999)
____________________
How many newly confirmed cases each day should there be before it would be appropriate to prohibit gatherings of more than 8 people?
[The number of newly confirmed cases should be fewer than that in the previous question]
(To opt for “don’t know / hard to say”, please input 99999)
____________________
How many newly confirmed cases each day should there be before it would be appropriate to prohibit gatherings of more than 16 people?
[The number of newly confirmed cases should be fewer than that in the previous question]
(To opt for “don’t know / hard to say”, please input 99999)
____________________
Please list combinations of [number of cases & number of people allowed in gatherings] that you think is appropriate in the field below:
______________________________________________________________________________
As one can see, instead of asking about people’s view on completely lifting the gathering ban, the newly set survey questions probed in more details to include their acceptable prohibition limit matched to the number of confirmed COVID cases. After collecting the data, POP would make reference to the daily confirmed COVID cases and check on how many respondents would find the current gathering ban policy too lenient, appropriate or too strict. If the acceptable prohibition limits are lower than the current ban, they are categorized as “too lenient”. On the other hand, if the prohibition limits are higher than the current ban, they would be grouped as “too strict”. If the prohibition limit matches the current policy, it would be considered as “appropriate”.
Since the public’s view on the gathering ban has proven not to change rapidly after a few months’ test, POP has decided to run such benchmarking surveys only once every month or whenever there are changes in the policy. Daily index figures can be obtained simply by checking on the table of index values versus the number of confirmed cases as compiled from the latest benchmark survey results. Whenever a benchmark survey is conducted, a new table will be compiled, and new index values and acceptance levels can be located.
Starting from this release, we have also added two appendix tables to show contact information of all benchmark surveys conducted, and the daily figures of GGPI and “group gathering prohibition acceptance level” since the first day of 2021.
Contact Information of the Latest Benchmark Survey
| Survey date | : | 16/7 15:00 – 21/7 15:00 |
| Survey method | : | Online survey |
| Target population | : | Hong Kong residents aged 12+ |
| Total sample size | : | 5,636 |
| Response rate | : | 6.1% |
| Sampling error[1] | : | Sampling error of percentages at +/-1% at 95% confidence level |
| Weighting method | : | The figures are rim-weighted according to 1) gender-age distribution of Hong Kong population and by District Councils population figures from Census and Statistics Department; 2) Voting results of District Councils Election from Registration and Electoral Office; 3) rating distribution of Chief Executive from regular tracking surveys. |
[1] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
Latest Findings
Table 1: Group Gathering Prohibition Acceptance Level & Group Gathering Prohibition Index
| Date | 24/7/21[2] | 25/7/21[2] | 26/7/21[2] | 27/7/21[2] | 28/7/21[2] | 29/7/21[2] | 30/7/21[2] |
| Infected case(s) (ytd) | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Too lenient | 5% | 5% | 6% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 5% |
| Appropriate | 7% | 7% | 8% | 0% | 2% | 2% | 7% |
| Too strict | 88% | 88% | 86% | 96% | 93% | 93% | 88% |
| Group Gathering Prohibition Index[3] | 15.3 | 15.3 | 15.1 | 17.2 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 15.3 |
[2] Results based on the eleven benchmark survey.
[3] The maximum value is set at 20 persons, according to the simulation of data collected from the latest benchmark survey. This value will be reviewed after each benchmark survey.
Chart 1: Group Gathering Prohibition Acceptance Level & Group Gathering Prohibition Index
Commentary
Dr Tung-fai Cheung, Spokesman of Alliance of Revitalizing Economy and Livelihood, observed, “Hong Kong International Travel Expo opened today. The numbers inspire us. There were usually 60 million travellers coming to Hong Kong annually and now we only have one-thousandth of them. The Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau said that while the tough situation of the tourism industry could not be reversed in the short run, the industry should get prepared and reformed to attract more tourists. The message is that tourism has no hope in the near future. The terms ‘prepared’ and ‘reformed’ are just typical bureaucratic jargons.”
Appendices
Please refer to HKPOP website https://wp.pori.hk/?lang=en
- Summary table for the contact information of the Benchmark Surveys https://wp.pori.hk/penri/ggpi-appendix1.html?lang=en
- Summary table for Group Gathering Prohibition Acceptance Level & Group Gathering Prohibition Index https://wp.pori.hk/penri/ggpi-appendix2.html?lang=en
