2021年8月3日香港民意研究所發佈會 – 傳媒參考資料
發佈會直播
特別宣佈
香港民意研究計劃（香港民研）前身為香港大學民意研究計劃（港大民研）。公報內的「民研計劃」指的可以是香港民研或其前身港大民研。
公報簡要
民研計劃於六月底至七月由真實訪問員以隨機抽樣電話訪問方式，分兩階段成功訪問了1,003和1,000名香港居民。調查顯示，在十位香港市民最熟悉的當今中國及台灣領導人之中，以支持度排名，朱鎔基名列首位，得64.5分；溫家寶、胡錦濤、李克強和習近平名列第二至五位；馬英九、江澤民、王毅和蔡英文位列第六至九位；陳水扁則名列第十位。相比上次調查，習近平的評分繼續顯著上升，而蔡英文的評分則繼續顯著下降。另外，江澤民的評分錄得2014年以來新高。王岐山和蘇貞昌分別得51.8及41.2分，但由於認知率較低而被剔除。評分調查的實效回應比率為48.5%。在95%置信水平下，調查的評分誤差不超過+/-3.3。
樣本資料
| 提名階段 | 評分階段 | ||
| 調查日期 | ： | 30/6-8/7/2021 | 19-22/7/2021 |
| 成功樣本數目[1] | ： | 1,003 (包括503個固網及500個手機樣本) |
1,000 (包括499個固網及501個手機樣本) |
| 實效回應比率 | ： | 46.4% | 48.5% |
| 調查方法 | ： | 由真實訪問員進行隨機抽樣電話訪問 | |
| 訪問對象 | ： | 18歲或以上操粵語的香港居民 | |
| 抽樣誤差[2] | ： | 在95%置信水平下，評分誤差不超過+/-3.3 | |
| 加權方法 | ： | 按照政府統計處提供的統計數字以「反覆多重加權法」作出調整。全港人口年齡及性別分佈統計數字來自《二零二零年年中人口數字》，而教育程度（最高就讀程度）及經濟活動身分統計數字則來自《香港的女性及男性 - 主要統計數字》（2020年版）。 | |
[1] 數字為調查的總樣本數目，個別題目則可能只涉及次樣本。有關數字請參閱下列數表內列出的樣本數目。
[2] 此公報中所有誤差數字均以95%置信水平計算。95%置信水平，是指倘若以不同隨機樣本重複進行有關調查100次，則95次各自計算出的誤差範圍會包含人口真實數字。由於調查數字涉及抽樣誤差，傳媒引用百分比數字時，應避免使用小數點，在引用評分數字時，則可以使用一個小數點。
最新數據
在提名調查中，被訪者可在未經提示下說出最多10名最熟悉的當今中國及台灣領導人，首12位最多被訪者提及的則被納入評分調查。在評分調查中，被訪者就個別政治人物以0至100分進行評分，0分代表絕對不支持，100分代表絕對支持，50分為一半半。統計結果後，認知度最低的再被剔除，之後再按支持度由高至低順序排列，得出十大兩岸政治人物。以下是十大兩岸政治人物的最新評分，按評分倒序排列[3]：
| 調查日期 | 14-15/1/20 | 22-24/7/20 | 18-22/1/21 | 19-22/7/21 | 最新變化 | |
| 樣本數目[4] | 508 | 510 | 541-649 | 652-706 | -- | |
| 回應比率 | 57.7% | 56.5% | 67.2% | 48.5% | -- | |
| 最新結果[5] | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及誤差 | 認知率 | -- |
| 朱鎔基 | 59.0{1}[6] | 61.6{1} | 67.7{1}[6] | 64.5+/-2.3{1} | 83.0% | -3.1 |
| 溫家寶 | 51.7{3}[6] | 54.4{3} | 61.9{2}[6] | 61.2+/-2.1{2} | 89.3% | -0.7 |
| 胡錦濤 | 48.4{4}[6] | 51.1{4} | 58.0{3}[6] | 57.9+/-2.0{3} | 86.9% | -0.1 |
| 李克強 | 44.6{6}[6] | 46.4{5} | 54.5{4}[6] | 56.9+/-2.5{4} | 86.8% | +2.4 |
| 習近平 | 39.9{7}[6] | 40.7{8} | 50.9{6}[6] | 55.4+/-3.1{5} | 90.5% | +4.5[6] |
| 馬英九 | 44.8{5}[6] | 45.9{7} | 50.7{7}[6] | 51.1+/-1.9{6} | 90.8% | +0.4 |
| 江澤民 | 38.3{8}[6] | 46.2{6} | 49.1{8} | 50.4+/-2.2{7} | 84.9% | +1.3 |
| 王毅 | -- | -- | -- | 49.1+/-3.3{8} | 68.1% | -- |
| 蔡英文 | 57.6{2}[6] | 57.6{2} | 52.8{5}[6] | 48.6+/-2.6{9} | 91.2% | -4.2[6] |
| 陳水扁 | 22.9{10} | 23.1{10} | 27.3{10}[6] | 26.3+/-1.9{10} | 87.1% | -1.0 |
| 王岐山 | -- | -- | 53.3[7] | 51.8+/-3.0[7] | 62.6% | -1.5 |
| 蘇貞昌 | -- | -- | 40.2[7] | 41.2+/-2.6[7] | 58.9% | +0.9 |
| 韓國瑜 | 28.6{9}[6] | 24.6{9} | 33.5{9}[6] | -- | -- | -- |
| 李登輝 | 37.0[7] | 36.7[7] | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 韓正 | -- | 33.2[7] | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 宋楚瑜 | 32.0[7] | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
[3] 如四捨五入後的數字相同，則會再考慮小數點後的數字。
[4] 民研計劃在2020年3月前彙報的次樣本數目為加權數字，2020年3月開始則以原始數字彙報。
[5] 括弧{ }內數字為排名。
[6] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
[7] 於評分調查認知率較低。
最新調查顯示，在十位香港市民最熟悉的當今中國及台灣領導人之中，以支持度排名，朱鎔基名列首位，得64.5分；溫家寶、胡錦濤、李克強和習近平名列第二至五位，得61.2、57.9、56.9及55.4分；馬英九、江澤民、王毅和蔡英文分別得51.1、50.4、49.1及48.6分，位列第六至九位。陳水扁則得26.3分，名列第十位。相比上次調查，習近平的評分繼續顯著上升，而蔡英文的評分則繼續顯著下降。另外，江澤民的評分錄得2014年以來新高。王岐山和蘇貞昌分別得51.8及41.2分，但由於認知率較低而被剔除。
須要說明，躋身「十大兩岸政治人物」的先決條件是香港巿民的熟悉程度，然後再按支持度排名。「十大」以外的兩岸政治人物，支持度可以很高或很低，但由於並非巿民最熟悉的人物，所以不在榜內。
民意日誌
民研計劃於2007年開始與慧科訊業有限公司合作，由慧科訊業按照民研計劃設計的分析方法，將每日大事記錄傳送至民研計劃，經民研計劃核實後成為「民意日誌」。
由於本新聞公報所涉及的調查項目，上次調查日期為18-22/1/2021，而今次調查日期則為19-22/7/2021，因此是次公報中的「民意日誌」項目便以上述日期為依歸，讓讀者作出比較。以涵蓋率不下25%本地報章每日頭條新聞和報社評論計，在上述期間發生的相關大事包括以下事件，讀者可以自行判斷有關事件有否影響各項民調數字：
| 16/7/21 | 夏寶龍提出對治港者的五項要求 |
| 5/7/21 | 多名中港官員出席國安法法律論壇 |
| 1/7/21 | 習近平於中國共產黨成立100周年大會發表講話 |
| 25/6/21 | 李家超、鄧炳強及蕭澤頤分別出任政務司司長、保安局局長及警務處處長 |
| 12/6/21 | 駱惠寧指叫喊「結束一黨專政」者是香港大敵 |
| 10/6/21 | 人大常委通過《反外國制裁法》 |
| 10/4/21 | 阿里巴巴違反《反壟斷法》，被罰182億元人民幣 |
| 30/3/21 | 人大常委通過修訂基本法，修改香港的選舉制度 |
| 25/3/21 | 國際品牌拒用新疆棉花，中國消費者發起抵制運動 |
| 19/3/21 | 中美官員於阿拉斯加會談 |
| 17/3/21 | 港澳辦和中聯辦就修改香港選舉制度舉辦座談會 |
| 11/3/21 | 全國人大會議通過修改香港的選舉制度 |
| 6/3/21 | 國務院副總理韓正出席港澳地區全國政協委員聯組會議 |
| 5/3/21 | 全國人大十三屆四次會議開幕，李克強發表政府工作報告 |
| 22/2/21 | 夏寶龍指中央政府將改變香港選舉制度，確保「愛國者治港」 |
| 5/2/21 | 駱惠寧主持中聯辦網上新春酒會並致辭 |
| 27/1/21 | 林鄭月娥以視像形式向習近平述職 |
數據分析
調查顯示，在十位香港市民最熟悉的當今中國及台灣領導人之中，以支持度排名，朱鎔基名列首位，得64.5分；溫家寶、胡錦濤、李克強和習近平名列第二至五位；馬英九、江澤民、王毅和蔡英文位列第六至九位；陳水扁則名列第十位。相比上次調查，習近平的評分繼續顯著上升，而蔡英文的評分則繼續顯著下降。另外，江澤民的評分錄得2014年以來新高。王岐山和蘇貞昌分別得51.8及41.2分，但由於認知率較低而被剔除。
Aug 03, 2021
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials
Press Conference Live
Special Announcement
The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.
Abstract
POP successfully interviewed 1,003 and 1,000 Hong Kong residents in a two-stage random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in late June to July. Our survey shows that, among the ten Mainland China and Taiwan political figures most well-known to Hong Kong people, Zhu Rongji ranked first in terms of popularity rating, attaining 64.5 marks. The 2nd to 5th ranks went to Wen Jiabao, Hu Jintao, Li Keqiang and Xi Jinping. Ma Ying-jeou, Jiang Zemin, Wang Yi and Tsai Ing-wen occupied the 6th to 9th ranks. The 10th rank fell to Chen Shui-bian. Compared to the previous survey, the rating of Xi Jinping continues to increase significantly, while that of Tsai Ing-wen continues to drop significantly. Meanwhile, the rating of Jiang Zemin has reached a record high since 2014. Wang Qishan and Su Tseng-chang obtained support ratings of 51.8 and 41.2 marks respectively, but they were dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates. The effective response rate of the rating survey is 48.5%. The maximum sampling error of ratings is +/-3.3 at 95% confidence level.
Contact Information
| Naming stage | Rating stage | ||
| Date of survey | : | 30/6-8/7/2021 | 19-22/7/2021 |
| Sample size[1] | : | 1,003 (including 503 landline and 500 mobile samples) | 1,000 (including 499 landline and 501 mobile samples) |
| Effective response rate | : | 46.4% | 48.5% |
| Survey method | : | Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers | |
| Target population | : | Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above | |
| Sampling error[2] | : | Sampling error of ratings not more than +/-3.3 at 95% conf. level | |
| Weighting method | : | Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2020”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2020 Edition)”. | |
[1] This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.
[2] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
Latest Figures
In the naming survey, respondents could name, unprompted, up to 10 contemporary leaders in China or Taiwan whom they knew best. The top 12 nominees then entered the rating survey. In the rating survey, respondents were asked to rate individual political figures using a 0-100 scale, where 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom ones in terms of recognition rate were dropped; the remaining 10 were then ranked according to their support ratings to become the top 10 cross-strait political figures. Recent ratings of the top 10 cross-strait political figures are summarized below, in descending order of support ratings[3]:
| Date of survey | 14-15/1/20 | 22-24/7/20 | 18-22/1/21 | 19-22/7/21 | Latest change | |
| Sample size[4] | 508 | 510 | 541-649 | 652-706 | -- | |
| Response rate | 57.7% | 56.5% | 67.2% | 48.5% | -- | |
| Latest findings[5] | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | Recognition rate | -- |
| Zhu Rongji | 59.0{1}[6] | 61.6{1} | 67.7{1}[6] | 64.5+/-2.3{1} | 83.0% | -3.1 |
| Wen Jiabao | 51.7{3}[6] | 54.4{3} | 61.9{2}[6] | 61.2+/-2.1{2} | 89.3% | -0.7 |
| Hu Jintao | 48.4{4}[6] | 51.1{4} | 58.0{3}[6] | 57.9+/-2.0{3} | 86.9% | -0.1 |
| Li Keqiang | 44.6{6}[6] | 46.4{5} | 54.5{4}[6] | 56.9+/-2.5{4} | 86.8% | +2.4 |
| Xi Jinping | 39.9{7}[6] | 40.7{8} | 50.9{6}[6] | 55.4+/-3.1{5} | 90.5% | +4.5[6] |
| Ma Ying-jeou | 44.8{5}[6] | 45.9{7} | 50.7{7}[6] | 51.1+/-1.9{6} | 90.8% | +0.4 |
| Jiang Zemin | 38.3{8}[6] | 46.2{6} | 49.1{8} | 50.4+/-2.2{7} | 84.9% | +1.3 |
| Wang Yi | -- | -- | -- | 49.1+/-3.3{8} | 68.1% | -- |
| Tsai Ing-wen | 57.6{2}[6] | 57.6{2} | 52.8{5}[6] | 48.6+/-2.6{9} | 91.2% | -4.2[6] |
| Chen Shui-bian | 22.9{10} | 23.1{10} | 27.3{10}[6] | 26.3+/-1.9{10} | 87.1% | -1.0 |
| Wang Qishan | -- | -- | 53.3[7] | 51.8+/-3.0[7] | 62.6% | -1.5 |
| Su Tseng-chang | -- | -- | 40.2[7] | 41.2+/-2.6[7] | 58.9% | +0.9 |
| Han Kuo-yu | 28.6{9}[6] | 24.6{9} | 33.5{9}[6] | -- | -- | -- |
| Lee Teng-hui | 37.0[7] | 36.7[7] | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Han Zheng | -- | 33.2[7] | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Soong Chu-yu | 32.0[7] | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
[3] If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.
[4] Before March 2020, weighted count was used to report subsample size. Starting from March 2020, raw count was used instead.
[5] Numbers in curly brackets { } indicate the rankings.
[6] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
[7] Recognition rates were comparatively low in the rating survey.
The latest survey revealed that, among the ten Mainland China and Taiwan political figures most well-known to Hong Kong people, Zhu Rongji ranked first in terms of popularity rating, attaining 64.5 marks. The 2nd to 5th ranks went to Wen Jiabao, Hu Jintao, Li Keqiang and Xi Jinping with scores of 61.2, 57.9, 56.9 and 55.4 marks respectively. Ma Ying-jeou, Jiang Zemin, Wang Yi and Tsai Ing-wen occupied the 6th to 9th ranks with 51.1, 50.4, 49.1 and 48.6 marks correspondingly. The 10th rank fell to Chen Shui-bian with a score of 26.3 marks. Compared to the previous survey, the rating of Xi Jinping continues to increase significantly, while that of Tsai Ing-wen continues to drop significantly. Meanwhile, the rating of Jiang Zemin has reached a record high since 2014. Wang Qishan and Su Tseng-chang obtained support ratings of 51.8 and 41.2 marks respectively, but they were dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates.
It should be noted that our list of “top 10 cross-strait political figures” only includes those best known to the Hong Kong public, ranked according to their support ratings. Other political figures may have very high or low support ratings, but they are excluded from the list because they are relatively less well-known.
Opinion Daily
In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.
For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 18 to 22 January, 2021 while this survey was conducted from 19 to 22 July, 2021. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
| 16/7/21 | Xia Baolong spells out five qualities people who govern Hong Kong must possess. |
| 5/7/21 | Mainland and Hong Kong officials attend a legal forum on national security law. |
| 1/7/21 | Xi Jinping delivers a speech at Chinese Communist Party’s 100th anniversary ceremony. |
| 25/6/21 | John Lee, Chris Tang and Raymond Siu are appointed as Chief Secretary, Secretary for Security and Commissioner of Police respectively. |
| 12/6/21 | Luo Huining says people who shout “end one-party rule” are enemies of Hong Kong. |
| 10/6/21 | NPCSC passes “Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law”. |
| 10/4/21 | Alibaba is fined RMB 18.2 billion for violating anti-monopoly law. |
| 30/3/21 | NPCSC passes amendments to the Basic Law to amend Hong Kong’s electoral system. |
| 25/3/21 | Chinese consumers start a boycott campaign against international brands refusing to use Xinjiang cottons. |
| 19/3/21 | China and US officials meet in Alaska. |
| 17/3/21 | The Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office and the Liaison Office hold seminars on amending Hong Kong’s electoral system. |
| 11/3/21 | The National People’s Congress passes bill on amending Hong Kong’s electoral system. |
| 6/3/21 | Vice-Premier of the State Council Han Zheng attend CPCC joint group meeting about Hong Kong and Macau. |
| 5/3/21 | The fourth session of the 13th National People’s Congress begins, Li Keqiang delivers the government work report. |
| 22/2/21 | Xia Baolong says the Central Government will change the electoral system in Hong Kong to make sure it will be “patriots ruling Hong Kong”. |
| 5/2/21 | Luo Huining holds liaison office’s annual spring reception online and delivers a speech. |
| 27/1/21 | Carrie Lam reports to Xi Jinping on her work via video conferencing. |
Data Analysis
Our survey shows that, among the ten Mainland China and Taiwan political figures most well-known to Hong Kong people, Zhu Rongji ranked first in terms of popularity rating, attaining 64.5 marks. The 2nd to 5th ranks went to Wen Jiabao, Hu Jintao, Li Keqiang and Xi Jinping. Ma Ying-jeou, Jiang Zemin, Wang Yi and Tsai Ing-wen occupied the 6th to 9th ranks. The 10th rank fell to Chen Shui-bian. Compared to the previous survey, the rating of Xi Jinping continues to increase significantly, while that of Tsai Ing-wen continues to drop significantly. Meanwhile, the rating of Jiang Zemin has reached a record high since 2014. Wang Qishan and Su Tseng-chang obtained support ratings of 51.8 and 41.2 marks respectively, but they were dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates.
