2022年3月1日香港民意研究所發佈會 – 傳媒參考資料
發佈會直播
講者:
鍾劍華 - 香港民意研究所副行政總裁
李傲然 - 前油尖旺區議員
網上評論嘉賓:
潘麒智 - 獨立評論人
特別宣佈
香港民意研究所（香港民研）前身為香港大學民意研究計劃（港大民研）。公報內的「香港民研」指的可以是香港民意研究所或其前身港大民研。
公報簡要
香港民研於二月底由真實訪問員以隨機抽樣電話訪問方式，成功訪問了1,002名香港居民。調查顯示，特區政府的最新滿意率淨值為負48個百分點，較一個月前下跌8個百分點，並創2020年10月以來新低，但變化未超過抽樣誤差，信任淨值則為負18個百分點。至於市民對現時政治、民生及經濟狀況的評價，滿意淨值分別為負36、負51及負55個百分點。所有狀況的滿意淨值相比一個月前皆顯著下跌，民生狀況的跌幅更高達15個百分點，並創2020年10月以來新低，經濟狀況滿意淨值則創2021年2月以來新低。民情指數方面，最新數字為67.7，比二月上旬下跌10.2點。政府信任程度方面，30%被訪市民表示信任香港特區政府，信任北京中央政府及台灣政府的，則佔52%及18%，三項信任淨值分別為負18、正21及負18個百分點。對比半年前，北京中央政府的信任淨值顯著上升25個百分點，並創2009年12月以來新高。信心指標方面，66%表示對中國前途有信心，淨值為正41個百分點，相比半年前顯著上升了14個百分點，並創下2018年1月以來新高。另一方面，分別有43%和46%市民表示對香港前途和一國兩制有信心，淨值分別為負8和負1個百分點，後者則創2018年1月以來新高。調查的實效回應比率為49.7%。在95%置信水平下，調查的百分比誤差不超過+/-4%，淨值誤差不超過+/-8%，評分誤差不超過+/-0.1。
樣本資料
| 調查日期 | ： | 21-24/2/2022 |
| 調查方法 | ： | 由真實訪問員進行隨機抽樣電話訪問 |
| 訪問對象 | ： | 18歲或以上操粵語的香港居民 |
| 成功樣本數目[1] | ： | 1,002 (包括505個固網及497個手機樣本) |
| 實效回應比率 | ： | 49.7% |
| 抽樣誤差[2] | ： | 在95%置信水平下，百分比誤差不超過+/-4%，淨值誤差不超過+/-8%，評分誤差不超過+/-0.1 |
| 加權方法 | ： | 按照政府統計處提供的統計數字以「反覆多重加權法」作出調整。全港人口年齡及性別分佈統計數字來自《二零二零年年中人口數字》，而教育程度（最高就讀程度）及經濟活動身分統計數字則來自《香港的女性及男性 - 主要統計數字》（2020年版）。 |
- 數字為調查的總樣本數目，個別題目則可能只涉及次樣本。有關數字請參閱下列數表內列出的樣本數目。
- 此公報中所有誤差數字均以95%置信水平計算。95%置信水平，是指倘若以不同隨機樣本重複進行有關調查100次，則95次各自計算出的誤差範圍會包含人口真實數字。由於調查數字涉及抽樣誤差，傳媒引用百分比數字時，應避免使用小數點，在引用評分數字時，則可以使用一個小數點。
特區政府民望
以下是特區政府的最新民望數字：
| 調查日期 | 16-23/9/21 | 18-22/10/21 | 15-18/11/21 | 9-14/12/21 | 17-20/1/22 | 21-24/2/22 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 666-703 | 598-622 | 655-677 | 589-616 | 561-602 | 659-685 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 44.1% | 52.2% | 53.7% | 58.0% | 48.4% | 49.7% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及 誤差 |
-- |
| 特區政府表現滿意率[3] | 25% | 26% | 26% | 25% | 20% | 16+/-3% | -4% |
| 特區政府表現不滿率[3] | 54% | 55% | 56% | 56% | 60% | 64+/-4% | +4% |
| 滿意率淨值 | -30% | -29% | -30% | -31% | -39% | -48+/-6% | -8% |
| 平均量值[3] | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.1+/-0.1 | -0.1 |
| 信任特區政府比率[3] | 35% | 38% | 42% | 39% | 36% | 30+/-4% | -6%[4] |
| 不信任特區政府比率[3] | 48% | 44% | 44% | 50%[4] | 49% | 48+/-4% | -1% |
| 信任淨值 | -13% | -6% | -2% | -11% | -13% | -18+/-7% | -5% |
| 平均量值[3] | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.5+/-0.1 | -0.1 |
- 數字採自五等量尺。平均量值是把答案按照正面程度，以1分最低5分最高量化成為1、2、3、4、5分，再求取樣本平均數值。
- 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
以下是市民對社會狀況的最新評價：
| 調查日期 | 16-23/9/21 | 18-22/10/21 | 15-18/11/21 | 9-14/12/21 | 17-20/1/22 | 21-24/2/22 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 1,036 | 1,000 | 1,004 | 1,017 | 1,001 | 1,002 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 44.1% | 52.2% | 53.7% | 58.0% | 48.4% | 49.7% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及 誤差 |
-- |
| 現時政治狀況滿意率[5] | 28%[6] | 25% | 29% | 27% | 24% | 20+/-3% | -5%[6] |
| 現時政治狀況不滿率[5] | 54% | 53% | 52% | 53% | 53% | 55+/-3% | +3% |
| 滿意率淨值 | -25%[6] | -28% | -23% | -27% | -29% | -36+/-5% | -7%[6] |
| 平均量值[5] | 2.4[6] | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.2+/-0.1 | -0.2[6] |
| 現時民生狀況滿意率[5] | 23% | 25% | 27% | 24% | 21% | 15+/-2% | -6%[6] |
| 現時民生狀況不滿率[5] | 52% | 52% | 55% | 52% | 57%[6] | 66+/-3% | +9%[6] |
| 滿意率淨值 | -29% | -27% | -28% | -28% | -37%[6] | -51+/-5% | -15%[6] |
| 平均量值[5] | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.4[6] | 2.1+/-0.1 | -0.3[6] |
| 現時經濟狀況滿意率[5] | 21% | 25%[6] | 27% | 23%[6] | 17%[6] | 13+/-2% | -4%[6] |
| 現時經濟狀況不滿率[5] | 53% | 51% | 51% | 47% | 61%[6] | 68+/-3% | +7%[6] |
| 滿意率淨值 | -32% | -26% | -24% | -24% | -45%[6] | -55+/-4% | -11%[6] |
| 平均量值[5] | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.3[6] | 2.1+/-0.1 | -0.2[6] |
- 數字採自五等量尺。平均量值是把答案按照正面程度，以1分最低5分最高量化成為1、2、3、4、5分，再求取樣本平均數值。
- 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
最新調查顯示，特區政府方面的最新滿意率為16%，不滿率為64%，滿意率淨值為負48個百分點，較一個月前下跌8個百分點，並創2020年10月以來新低，但變化未超過抽樣誤差。而平均量值為2.1分，即整體上接近「幾不滿」。信任程度方面，最新信任比率為30%，不信任比率48%，信任淨值為負18個百分點。而平均量值為2.5分，即整體上介乎「幾不信任」及「一半半」之間。
至於市民對現時政治、民生及經濟狀況的評價，最新滿意率分別為20%、15%及13%，而滿意淨值就分別為負36、負51及負55個百分點，三者的平均量值介乎2.1至2.2，即整體上接近「幾不滿」。所有狀況的滿意淨值相比一個月前皆顯著下跌，民生狀況的跌幅更高達15個百分點，並創2020年10月以來新低，經濟狀況滿意淨值則創2021年2月以來新低。
民情指數
香港民研制定「民情指數」（PSI），目的在於量化香港市民對香港社會的情緒反應，以解釋及預視社會出現集體行動的可能性。民情指數包涵了「政通」和「人和」兩個概念，分別以「政評數值（GA）」和「社評數值（SA）」顯示。「政評數值（GA）」泛指市民對整體政府管治的表現評價，而「社評數值（SA）」則泛指市民對整體社會狀況的評價，分別由四及六項民意數字組合而成。指數本身及兩項數值均以0至200顯示，100代表正常。
以下為民情指數、政評數值及社評數值走勢圖：
| 最新數值 | 民情指數：67.7 (-10.2) | 政評數值：69.7 (-2.9) | 社評數值：65.3 (-15.5) |
以下是民情指數、政評數值、社評數值，及十項基礎民意數字的近期數值：
| 截數日期 | 3/12/21 | 14/12/21 | 6/1/22 | 20/1/22 | 10/2/22 | 24/2/22 | 最新變化 |
| 民情指數 | 87.1 | 86.8 | 85.9 | 78.7 | 77.9 | 67.7 | -10.2 |
| 政評數值 | 79.5 | 78.0 | 76.4 | 74.0 | 72.6 | 69.7 | -2.9 |
| 特首評分 | 34.6 | 35.8 | 33.8 | 33.8[7] | 31.9 | 31.9[7] | -- |
| 特首民望淨值 | -45% | -42% | -48% | -48%[7] | -53% | -53%[7] | -- |
| 政府滿意程度平均量值 | 2.4[7] | 2.4 | 2.4[7] | 2.2 | 2.2[7] | 2.1 | -0.1 |
| 政府信任程度平均量值 | 2.8[7] | 2.7 | 2.7[7] | 2.6 | 2.6[7] | 2.5 | -0.1 |
| 社評數值 | 90.2[7] | 91.2 | 91.2[7] | 80.7 | 80.7[7] | 65.3 | -15.5 |
| 政治狀況滿意程度 | 2.4[7] | 2.4 | 2.4[7] | 2.4 | 2.4[7] | 2.2 | -0.2 |
| 政治狀況成份指標權數 | 0.31[7] | 0.31 | 0.31[7] | 0.31[7] | 0.31[7] | 0.31[7] | -- |
| 經濟狀況滿意程度 | 2.6[7] | 2.6 | 2.6[7] | 2.3 | 2.3[7] | 2.1 | -0.2 |
| 經濟狀況成份指標權數 | 0.34[7] | 0.34 | 0.34[7] | 0.34[7] | 0.34[7] | 0.34[7] | -- |
| 民生狀況滿意程度 | 2.5[7] | 2.5 | 2.5[7] | 2.4 | 2.4[7] | 2.1 | -0.3 |
| 民生狀況成份指標權數 | 0.35[7] | 0.35 | 0.35[7] | 0.35[7] | 0.35[7] | 0.35[7] | -- |
- 當有關數字沒有更新時，香港民研會採用最近一次已公佈的數字替代。
各項指數的具體數值，可按下表理解：
| 指數得分 | 百分位數 | 指數得分 | 百分位數 |
| 140-200 | 最高1% | 0-60 | 最低1% |
| 125 | 最高5% | 75 | 最低5% |
| 120 | 最高10% | 80 | 最低10% |
| 110 | 最高25% | 90 | 最低25% |
| 100為正常數值，即半數在上，半數在下 | |||
民情指數較二月上旬下跌10.2點至67.7，數字可以視為過去逾二十年來最差的2個百分比。民情指數的兩個成份數值中，反映市民對整體政府管治表現評價的政評數值下跌2.9點至69.7，而反映市民對整體社會狀況評價的社評數值則下跌15.5點至65.3。兩者分別可以視為過去逾二十年來最差的2個和1個百分比。而民情指數及社評數值則分別創2021年2月新低及2021年1月新低。
信任及信心指標
市民對特區、北京中央及台灣政府的信任程度、對中港前途以及一國兩制的信心的最新結果表列如下：
| 調查日期 | 18-22/10/21 | 15-18/11/21 | 9-14/12/21 | 17-20/1/22 | 21-24/2/22 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 598 | 677 | 589 | 602 | 659 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 52.2% | 53.7% | 58.0% | 48.4% | 49.7% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及誤差 | -- |
| 信任特區政府比率[8] (重複顯示) |
38% | 42% | 39% | 36% | 30+/-4% | -6%[9] |
| 不信任特區政府比率[8] (重複顯示) |
44% | 44% | 50%[9] | 49% | 48+/-4% | -1% |
| 信任淨值 (重複顯示) | -6% | -2% | -11% | -13% | -18+/-7% | -5% |
| 平均量值[8] (重複顯示) | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.5+/-0.1 | -0.1 |
| 調查日期 | 17-19/2/20 | 17-20/8/20 | 24-26/2/21 | 20-26/8/21 | 21-24/2/22 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 575-612 | 597-644 | 575-620 | 666-674 | 665-678 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 64.6% | 60.9% | 57.2% | 52.9% | 49.7% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及誤差 | -- |
| 信任中央政府比率[8] | 20% | 28%[9] | 41%[9] | 38% | 52+/-4% | +14%[9] |
| 不信任中央政府比率[8] | 63% | 58% | 43%[9] | 42% | 31+/-4% | -11%[9] |
| 信任淨值 | -43% | -29%[9] | -2%[9] | -4% | 21+/-7% | +25%[9] |
| 平均量值[8] | 2.1 | 2.4[9] | 2.9[9] | 2.8 | 3.3+/-0.1 | +0.4[9] |
| 信任台灣政府比率[8] | 38%[9] | 35% | 30% | 21%[9] | 18+/-3% | -3% |
| 不信任台灣政府比率[8] | 28%[9] | 34%[9] | 39% | 41% | 36+/-4% | -5% |
| 信任淨值 | 10%[9] | 2% | -9%[9] | -20%[9] | -18+/-6% | +2% |
| 平均量值[8] | 3.1[9] | 2.9[9] | 2.7[9] | 2.5[9] | 2.5+/-0.1 | -0.1 |
| 對香港前途有信心比率 | 26%[9] | 38%[9] | 48%[9] | 46% | 43+/-4% | -4% |
| 對香港前途沒有信心比率 | 70%[9] | 57%[9] | 46%[9] | 48% | 50+/-4% | +3% |
| 信心淨值 | -44%[9] | -19%[9] | 3%[9] | -1% | -8+/-8% | -6% |
| 對中國前途有信心比率 | 39% | 43% | 62%[9] | 60% | 66+/-4% | +6%[9] |
| 對中國前途沒有信心比率 | 52% | 48% | 28%[9] | 33% | 25+/-3% | -8%[9] |
| 信心淨值 | -13% | -4% | 34%[9] | 27% | 41+/-7% | +14%[9] |
| 對一國兩制有信心比率 | 27%[9] | 35%[9] | 45%[9] | 45% | 46+/-4% | +1% |
| 對一國兩制沒有信心比率 | 68%[9] | 61%[9] | 50%[9] | 51% | 47+/-4% | -4% |
| 信心淨值 | -41%[9] | -26%[9] | -5%[9] | -6% | -1+/-7% | +5% |
- 數字採自五等量尺。平均量值是把答案按照正面程度，以1分最低5分最高量化成為1、2、3、4、5分，再求取樣本平均數值。
- 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
政府信任程度方面，30%被訪市民表示信任香港特區政府，信任北京中央政府及台灣政府的，則佔52%及18%，三項信任淨值分別為負18、正21及負18個百分點，平均量值就分別為2.5、3.3及2.5分，即信任香港特區政府及台灣政府程度整體上介乎「幾不信任」及「一半半」之間，而信任北京中央政府程度則介乎「一半半」及「幾信任」之間。對比半年前，北京中央政府的信任淨值顯著上升25個百分點，並創2009年12月以來新高。
信心指標方面，66%表示對中國前途有信心，淨值為正41個百分點，相比半年前顯著上升了14個百分點，並創下2018年1月以來新高。另一方面，分別有43%和46%市民表示對香港前途和一國兩制有信心，淨值分別為負8和負1個百分點，後者則創2018年1月以來新高。
民意日誌
香港民研於2007年開始與慧科訊業有限公司合作，由慧科訊業按照香港民研設計的分析方法，將每日大事記錄傳送至香港民研，經香港民研核實後成為「民意日誌」。
由於本新聞公報所涉及的部分調查項目，上次調查日期為20-26/8/2021，而今次調查日期則為21-24/2/2022，因此是次公報中的「民意日誌」項目便以上述日期為依歸，讓讀者作出比較。以涵蓋率不下25%本地報章每日頭條新聞和報社評論計，在上述期間發生的相關大事包括以下事件，讀者可以自行判斷有關事件有否影響各項民調數字：
| 23/2/22 | 政府發表財政預算案，推出超過1700億逆周期措施 |
| 22/2/22 | 政府宣佈將於三月推行全民強檢 |
| 21/2/22 | 政府宣佈2月24日開始實施「疫苗通行證」 |
| 18/2/22 | 林鄭月娥宣佈引用《緊急情況規例條款》押後特首選舉至5月8日 |
| 17/2/22 | 首批支援香港的中國內地抗疫專家團抵港 |
| 16/2/22 | 習近平對支援香港抗疫作出指示 |
| 9/2/22 | 香港新增1,161宗個案新高 |
| 8/2/22 | 政府收緊防疫措施，限制跨家庭聚會及推行疫苗護照 |
| 31/1/22 | 民政事務局局長徐英偉宣布辭職 |
| 27/1/22 | 政府延長防疫措施至2月17日，疫苗通行證將於2月24日推出 |
| 21/1/22 | 葵涌邨逸葵樓疫情爆發，政府宣布圍封五天進行強檢 |
| 18/1/22 | 政府因有倉鼠感染新冠肺炎而人道毀滅2,000隻動物 |
| 17/1/22 | 國家統計局公布中國2021年GDP按年增長8.1% |
| 14/1/22 | 政府延長防疫措施至2月3日及公布第五輪防疫抗疫基金詳情 |
| 6/1/22 | 政府多名高官出席洪為民生日派對 |
| 31/12/21 | 政府宣布收緊防疫措施 |
| 29/12/21 | 7名立場新聞高層被捕，立場新聞停運 |
| 20/12/21 | 90人當選立法會議員 |
| 8/12/21 | 政府公佈《長遠房屋策略》周年進度報告 |
| 6/12/21 | 夏寶龍指「愛國者治港」是搞「五光十色」 |
| 29/11/21 | 政府因應Omicron疫情禁止多個國家非港人入境 |
| 23/11/21 | 政府宣布12月9日起擴大強制使用「安心出行」應用程式範圍 |
| 16/11/21 | 習近平及拜登舉行視像會議 |
| 12/11/21 | 中共六中全會通過中共黨史上第三份歷史決議 |
| 31/10/21 | 明天起進入政府處所須強制使用「安心出行」應用程式 |
| 8/10/21 | 政府公布《香港2030+》策略規劃最終報告 |
| 7/10/21 | 施政報告提出發展「北部都會區」 |
| 27/9/21 | 政府發布香港營商環境報告 |
| 25/9/21 | 孟晚舟獲釋返回中國 |
| 24/9/21 | 中國外交部發表《美國干預香港事務、支持反中亂港勢力事實清單》 |
| 20/9/21 | 364人當選選舉委員會委員 |
| 20/9/21 | 傳中央政府向香港地產商施壓，各地產股大跌 |
| 24/8/21 | 政府提出進一步修訂《電影檢查條例》，禁止不利國家安全電影上映 |
數據分析
調查顯示，特區政府的最新滿意率淨值為負48個百分點，較一個月前下跌8個百分點，並創2020年10月以來新低，但變化未超過抽樣誤差，信任淨值則為負18個百分點。至於市民對現時政治、民生及經濟狀況的評價，滿意淨值分別為負36、負51及負55個百分點。所有狀況的滿意淨值相比一個月前皆顯著下跌，民生狀況的跌幅更高達15個百分點，並創2020年10月以來新低，經濟狀況滿意淨值則創2021年2月以來新低。
民情指數方面，最新數字為67.7，比二月上旬下跌10.2點。
政府信任程度方面，30%被訪市民表示信任香港特區政府，信任北京中央政府及台灣政府的，則佔52%及18%，三項信任淨值分別為負18、正21及負18個百分點。對比半年前，北京中央政府的信任淨值顯著上升25個百分點，並創2009年12月以來新高。信心指標方面，66%表示對中國前途有信心，淨值為正41個百分點，相比半年前顯著上升了14個百分點，並創下2018年1月以來新高。另一方面，分別有43%和46%市民表示對香港前途和一國兩制有信心，淨值分別為負8和負1個百分點，後者則創2018年1月以來新高。
Mar 01, 2022
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials
Press Conference Live
Speakers:
Kim-Wah Chung - Deputy CEO, HKPORI
Owan Li - Former Yau Tsim Mong District Councillor
Online Commentator:
KC Poon - Independent Commentator
Special Announcement
The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute (PORI) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “PORI” in this release can refer to Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute or its predecessor HKUPOP.
Abstract
PORI successfully interviewed 1,002 Hong Kong residents by a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in late February. Our survey shows that the latest net satisfaction of the HKSAR Government stands at negative 48 percentage points, which has dropped by 8 percentage points from a month ago and registered a record low since October 2020, yet the change is within sampling error. Meanwhile the net trust value stands at negative 18 percentage points. As for people’s satisfaction with the current political, livelihood and economic conditions, the net satisfaction rates are negative 36, negative 51 and negative 55 percentage points respectively. The net satisfaction rates of all conditions have dropped significantly compared to a month ago. The drop registered for the livelihood condition was as large as 15 percentage points, registering a record low since October 2020, while the net satisfaction rate of economic condition has registered a record low since February 2021. As for the PSI, the latest figure is 67.7, down by 10.2 points from early February. Regarding people’s trust in governments, 30% of the respondents trust the HKSAR Government, 52% trust the Beijing Central Government, and 18% trust the Taiwan Government. The net trust values are negative 18, positive 21 and negative 18 percentage points respectively. Compared to half a year ago, net trust in the Beijing Central Government has significantly increased by 25 percentage points, registering a new high since December 2009. As for the confidence indicators, 66% expressed confidence in the future of China while net confidence stands at positive 41 percentage points, which has significantly increased by 14 percentage points, registering a new record high since January 2018. On the other hand, 43% and 46% expressed confidence in the future of Hong Kong and in “one country, two systems” respectively, while net confidence stands at negative 8 and negative 1 percentage points respectively. The latter has registered a new record high since January 2018. The effective response rate of the survey is 49.7%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-8% and that of ratings not more than +/-0.1 at 95% confidence level.
Contact Information
| Date of survey | : | 21-24/2/2022 |
| Survey method | : | Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers |
| Target population | : | Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above |
| Sample size[1] | : | 1,002 (including 505 landline and 497 mobile samples) |
| Effective response rate | : | 49.7% |
| Sampling error[2] | : | Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-8% and that of ratings not more than +/-0.1 at 95% conf. level |
| Weighting method | : | Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2020”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2020 Edition)”. |
- This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.
- All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
Popularity of SAR Government
Recent popularity figures of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:
| Date of survey | 16-23/9/21 | 18-22/10/21 | 15-18/11/21 | 9-14/12/21 | 17-20/1/22 | 21-24/2/22 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 666-703 | 598-622 | 655-677 | 589-616 | 561-602 | 659-685 | -- |
| Response rate | 44.1% | 52.2% | 53.7% | 58.0% | 48.4% | 49.7% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Satisfaction rate of SARG performance[3] | 25% | 26% | 26% | 25% | 20% | 16+/-3% | -4% |
| Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance[3] | 54% | 55% | 56% | 56% | 60% | 64+/-4% | +4% |
| Net satisfaction rate | -30% | -29% | -30% | -31% | -39% | -48+/-6% | -8% |
| Mean value[3] | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.1+/-0.1 | -0.1 |
| Trust in HKSAR Government[3] | 35% | 38% | 42% | 39% | 36% | 30+/-4% | -6%[4] |
| Distrust in HKSAR Government[3] | 48% | 44% | 44% | 50%[4] | 49% | 48+/-4% | -1% |
| Net trust | -13% | -6% | -2% | -11% | -13% | -18+/-7% | -5% |
| Mean value[3] | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.5+/-0.1 | -0.1 |
- Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
- The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
People’s recent appraisals of society’s conditions are summarized as follows:
| Date of survey | 16-23/9/21 | 18-22/10/21 | 15-18/11/21 | 9-14/12/21 | 17-20/1/22 | 21-24/2/22 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 1,036 | 1,000 | 1,004 | 1,017 | 1,001 | 1,002 | -- |
| Response rate | 44.1% | 52.2% | 53.7% | 58.0% | 48.4% | 49.7% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Current political condition: Satisfaction rate[5] |
28%[6] | 25% | 29% | 27% | 24% | 20+/-3% | -5%[6] |
| Current political condition: Dissatisfaction rate[5] |
54% | 53% | 52% | 53% | 53% | 55+/-3% | +3% |
| Net satisfaction rate | -25%[6] | -28% | -23% | -27% | -29% | -36+/-5% | -7%[6] |
| Mean value[5] | 2.4[6] | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.2+/-0.1 | -0.2[6] |
| Current livelihood condition: Satisfaction rate[5] |
23% | 25% | 27% | 24% | 21% | 15+/-2% | -6%[6] |
| Current livelihood condition: Dissatisfaction rate[5] |
52% | 52% | 55% | 52% | 57%[6] | 66+/-3% | +9%[6] |
| Net satisfaction rate | -29% | -27% | -28% | -28% | -37%[6] | -51+/-5% | -15%[6] |
| Mean value[5] | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.4[6] | 2.1+/-0.1 | -0.3[6] |
| Current economic condition: Satisfaction rate[5] |
21% | 25%[6] | 27% | 23%[6] | 17%[6] | 13+/-2% | -4%[6] |
| Current economic condition: Dissatisfaction rate[5] |
53% | 51% | 51% | 47% | 61%[6] | 68+/-3% | +7%[6] |
| Net satisfaction rate | -32% | -26% | -24% | -24% | -45%[6] | -55+/-4% | -11%[6] |
| Mean value[5] | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.3[6] | 2.1+/-0.1 | -0.2[6] |
- Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
- The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Our latest survey shows that the latest satisfaction rate of the HKSAR Government is 16%, whereas dissatisfaction rate stands at 64%, thus the net satisfaction is negative 48 percentage points, which has dropped by 8 percentage points from a month ago and registered a record low since October 2020, yet the change is within sampling error. The mean score is 2.1, meaning close to “quite dissatisfied” in general. Regarding people’s trust in the HKSAR Government, 30% of the respondents expressed trust, 48% expressed distrust, thus the net trust value is negative 18 percentage points. The mean score is 2.5, meaning between “quite distrust” and “half-half” in general.
As for people’s satisfaction with the current political, livelihood and economic conditions, the latest satisfaction rates are 20%, 15% and 13% respectively, while the net satisfaction rates are negative 36, negative 51 and negative 55 percentage points respectively. The mean scores fall between 2.1 and 2.2, meaning close to “quite dissatisfied” in general. The net satisfaction rates of all conditions have dropped significantly compared to a month ago. The drop registered for the livelihood condition was as large as 15 percentage points, registering a record low since October 2020, while the net satisfaction rate of economic condition has registered a record low since February 2021.
Public Sentiment Index
The Public Sentiment Index (PSI) compiled by PORI aims at quantifying Hong Kong people’s sentiments, in order to explain and predict the likelihood of collective behaviour. PSI comprises 2 components: one being Government Appraisal (GA) Score and the other being Society Appraisal (SA) Score. GA refers to people’s appraisal of society’s governance while SA refers to people’s appraisal of the social environment. Both GA and SA scores are compiled from a respective of 4 and 6 opinion survey figures. All PSI, GA and SA scores range between 0 to 200, with 100 meaning normal.
The chart of PSI, GA and SA are shown below:
| Latest figure | Public Sentiment Index (PSI): 67.7 (-10.2) |
Government Appraisal (GA): 69.7 (-2.9) |
Society Appraisal (SA): 65.3 (-15.5) |
Recent values of PSI, GA, SA and 10 fundamental figures are tabulated as follows:
| Cut-off date | 3/12/21 | 14/12/21 | 6/1/22 | 20/1/22 | 10/2/22 | 24/2/22 | Latest change |
| Public Sentiment Index (PSI) | 87.1 | 86.8 | 85.9 | 78.7 | 77.9 | 67.7 | -10.2 |
| Government Appraisal (GA) | 79.5 | 78.0 | 76.4 | 74.0 | 72.6 | 69.7 | -2.9 |
| Rating of CE | 34.6 | 35.8 | 33.8 | 33.8[7] | 31.9 | 31.9[7] | -- |
| Net approval rate of CE | -45% | -42% | -48% | -48%[7] | -53% | -53%[7] | -- |
| Mean value of people’s satisfaction with SARG | 2.4[7] | 2.4 | 2.4[7] | 2.2 | 2.2[7] | 2.1 | -0.1 |
| Mean value of people’s trust in SARG | 2.8[7] | 2.7 | 2.7[7] | 2.6 | 2.6[7] | 2.5 | -0.1 |
| Society Appraisal (SA) | 90.2[7] | 91.2 | 91.2[7] | 80.7 | 80.7[7] | 65.3 | -15.5 |
| People’s satisfaction with political condition | 2.4[7] | 2.4 | 2.4[7] | 2.4 | 2.4[7] | 2.2 | -0.2 |
| Weighting index of political condition | 0.31[7] | 0.31 | 0.31[7] | 0.31[7] | 0.31[7] | 0.31[7] | -- |
| People’s satisfaction with economic condition | 2.6[7] | 2.6 | 2.6[7] | 2.3 | 2.3[7] | 2.1 | -0.2 |
| Weighting index of economic condition | 0.34[7] | 0.34 | 0.34[7] | 0.34[7] | 0.34[7] | 0.34[7] | -- |
| People’s satisfaction with livelihood condition | 2.5[7] | 2.5 | 2.5[7] | 2.4 | 2.4[7] | 2.1 | -0.3 |
| Weighting index of livelihood condition | 0.35[7] | 0.35 | 0.35[7] | 0.35[7] | 0.35[7] | 0.35[7] | -- |
- PORI will adopt the latest published figures when there are no respective updates.
As for the meaning of the score values, please refer to the following:
| Score value | Percentile | Score value | Percentile |
| 140-200 | Highest 1% | 0-60 | Lowest 1% |
| 125 | Highest 5% | 75 | Lowest 5% |
| 120 | Highest 10% | 80 | Lowest 10% |
| 110 | Highest 25% | 90 | Lowest 25% |
| 100 being normal level, meaning half above half below | |||
The latest PSI stands at 67.7, down by 10.2 points from early February. It can be considered as among the worst 2% across the past 20 years or so. Among the two component scores of PSI, the Government Appraisal (GA) Score that reflects people’s appraisal of society’s governance decreases by 2.9 points to 69.7, whereas the Society Appraisal (SA) Score that reflects people’s appraisal of the social environment decreases by 15.5 points to 65.3. They can be considered as among the worst 2% and 1% across the past 20 years or so respectively. The PSI and the SA have registered record lows since February 2021 and January 2021 respectively.
Trust and Confidence Indicators
Recent trust in SAR, Beijing Central and Taiwan Governments and people’s confidence in the future as well as “one country, two systems” are summarized below:
| Date of survey | 18-22/10/21 | 15-18/11/21 | 9-14/12/21 | 17-20/1/22 | 21-24/2/22 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 598 | 677 | 589 | 602 | 659 | -- |
| Response rate | 52.2% | 53.7% | 58.0% | 48.4% | 49.7% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Trust in HKSAR Government[8] (repeated listing) |
38% | 42% | 39% | 36% | 30+/-4% | -6%[9] |
| Distrust in HKSAR Government[8] (repeated listing) |
44% | 44% | 50%[9] | 49% | 48+/-4% | -1% |
| Net trust (repeated listing) | -6% | -2% | -11% | -13% | -18+/-7% | -5% |
| Mean value[8] (repeated listing) | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.5+/-0.1 | -0.1 |
| Date of survey | 17-19/2/20 | 17-20/8/20 | 24-26/2/21 | 20-26/8/21 | 21-24/2/22 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 575-612 | 597-644 | 575-620 | 666-674 | 665-678 | -- |
| Response rate | 64.6% | 60.9% | 57.2% | 52.9% | 49.7% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Trust in Beijing Government[8] | 20% | 28%[9] | 41%[9] | 38% | 52+/-4% | +14%[9] |
| Distrust in Beijing Government[8] | 63% | 58% | 43%[9] | 42% | 31+/-4% | -11%[9] |
| Net trust | -43% | -29%[9] | -2%[9] | -4% | 21+/-7% | +25%[9] |
| Mean value[8] | 2.1 | 2.4[9] | 2.9[9] | 2.8 | 3.3+/-0.1 | +0.4[9] |
| Trust in Taiwan Government[8] | 38%[9] | 35% | 30% | 21%[9] | 18+/-3% | -3% |
| Distrust in Taiwan Government[8] | 28%[9] | 34%[9] | 39% | 41% | 36+/-4% | -5% |
| Net trust | 10%[9] | 2% | -9%[9] | -20%[9] | -18+/-6% | +2% |
| Mean value[8] | 3.1[9] | 2.9[9] | 2.7[9] | 2.5[9] | 2.5+/-0.1 | -0.1 |
| Confidence in HK’s future | 26%[9] | 38%[9] | 48%[9] | 46% | 43+/-4% | -4% |
| No-confidence in HK’s future | 70%[9] | 57%[9] | 46%[9] | 48% | 50+/-4% | +3% |
| Net confidence | -44%[9] | -19%[9] | 3%[9] | -1% | -8+/-8% | -6% |
| Confidence in China’s future | 39% | 43% | 62%[9] | 60% | 66+/-4% | +6%[9] |
| No-confidence in China’s future | 52% | 48% | 28%[9] | 33% | 25+/-3% | -8%[9] |
| Net confidence | -13% | -4% | 34%[9] | 27% | 41+/-7% | +14%[9] |
| Confidence in “one country, two systems” |
27%[9] | 35%[9] | 45%[9] | 45% | 46+/-4% | +1% |
| No-confidence in “one country, two systems” |
68%[9] | 61%[9] | 50%[9] | 51% | 47+/-4% | -4% |
| Net confidence | -41%[9] | -26%[9] | -5%[9] | -6% | -1+/-7% | +5% |
- Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
- The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Regarding people’s trust in governments, 30% of the respondents trust the HKSAR Government, 52% trust the Beijing Central Government, and 18% trust the Taiwan Government. The net trust values are negative 18, positive 21 and negative 18 percentage points, while the mean scores are 2.5, 3.3 and 2.5 respectively, meaning trust in the HKSAR Government and Taiwan Government are between “quite distrust” and “half-half” in general whilst trust in the Beijing Central Government is between “half-half” and “quite trust” in general. Compared to half a year ago, net trust in the Beijing Central Government has significantly increased by 25 percentage points, registering a new high since December 2009.
As for the confidence indicators, 66% expressed confidence in the future of China while net confidence stands at positive 41 percentage points, which has significantly increased by 14 percentage points, registering a new record high since January 2018. On the other hand, 43% and 46% expressed confidence in the future of Hong Kong and in “one country, two systems” respectively, while net confidence stands at negative 8 and negative 1 percentage points respectively. The latter has registered a new record high since January 2018.
Opinion Daily
In 2007, PORI started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to PORI a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by PORI. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by PORI.
For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 20 to 26 August, 2021 while this survey was conducted from 21 to 24 February, 2022. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
| 23/2/22 | The government delivers the new Budget, and will spend more than HK$170 billion on counter-cyclical measures. |
| 22/2/22 | The government announces the implementation of compulsory mass testing in March. |
| 21/2/22 | The government announces the implementation of the Vaccine Pass arrangement starting from February 24. |
| 18/2/22 | Carrie Lam announces the postponement of the Chief Executive Election to May 8 by invoking the Emergency Regulations Ordinance. |
| 17/2/22 | First group of pandemic experts supporting Hong Kong from mainland China arrives. |
| 16/2/22 | Xi Jinping issues instructions on supporting Hong Kong in combatting the pandemic. |
| 9/2/22 | Hong Kong reports 1161 cases, registering a record high. |
| 8/2/22 | The government tightens the anti-epidemic measures, limiting multi-household gatherings and launching vaccine pass. |
| 31/1/22 | Secretary for Home Affairs Caspar Tsui announces his resignation. |
| 27/1/22 | The government extends anti-epidemic measures until February 17 and announces the launch of “vaccine pass” on February 24. |
| 21/1/22 | The government announces five-day lockdown at Yat Kwai House in Kwai Chung Estate for mandatory virus testing due to the outbreak of COVID-19. |
| 18/1/22 | The government culls 2,000 animals after a hamster contracts COVID-19. |
| 17/1/22 | National Bureau of Statistics announces that China’s GDP grows 8.1% in 2021. |
| 14/1/22 | The government extends anti-epidemic measures until February 3 and announces details for the fifth round of the Anti-epidemic Fund. |
| 6/1/22 | Government senior officials attend Witman Hung’s birthday party. |
| 31/12/21 | The government announces the tightening of anti-epidemic measures. |
| 29/12/21 | Stand News closes after seven senior staff members are arrested. |
| 20/12/21 | 90 members of the Legislative Council are elected. |
| 8/12/21 | The government publishes the “Long Term Housing Strategy” annual progress report. |
| 6/12/21 | Xia Baolong says the “patriots administering Hong Kong” principle aims at achieving participation of people from diverse backgrounds. |
| 29/11/21 | The government bans non-residents arriving from multiple countries in response to the spread of Omicron variant. |
| 23/11/21 | The government announces the extension of mandatory use of “LeaveHomeSafe” app to more premises starting from December 9. |
| 16/11/21 | Xi Jinping and Biden meet virtually. |
| 12/11/21 | The sixth plenary session of the Communist Party of China Central Committee passes the third historical resolution in party history. |
| 31/10/21 | Starting from tomorrow, it is mandatory to use the “LeaveHomeSafe” app when entering government premises. |
| 8/10/21 | The government publishes the “Hong Kong 2030+” strategic planning final report. |
| 7/10/21 | The Policy Address proposes developing the “Northern Metropolis”. |
| 27/9/21 | The government releases the Report on Hong Kong’s Business Environment. |
| 25/9/21 | Meng Wanzhou is freed and returns to China. |
| 24/9/21 | China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs publishes the “Fact Sheet: U.S. Interference in Hong Kong Affairs and Support for Anti-China, Destabilizing Forces”. |
| 20/9/21 | 364 members of the Election Committee are elected. |
| 20/9/21 | Various property stocks plummet while rumour has it that the Central Government is putting pressure on Hong Kong property developers. |
| 24/8/21 | The government further amends the “Film Censorship Ordinance” to ban exhibition of films that are contrary to the interests of national security. |
Data Analysis
Our survey shows that the latest net satisfaction of the HKSAR Government stands at negative 48 percentage points, which has dropped by 8 percentage points from a month ago and registered a record low since October 2020, yet the change is within sampling error. Meanwhile the net trust value stands at negative 18 percentage points. As for people’s satisfaction with the current political, livelihood and economic conditions, the net satisfaction rates are negative 36, negative 51 and negative 55 percentage points respectively. The net satisfaction rates of all conditions have dropped significantly compared to a month ago. The drop registered for the livelihood condition was as large as 15 percentage points, registering a record low since October 2020, while the net satisfaction rate of economic condition has registered a record low since February 2021.
As for the PSI, the latest figure is 67.7, down by 10.2 points from early February.
Regarding people’s trust in governments, 30% of the respondents trust the HKSAR Government, 52% trust the Beijing Central Government, and 18% trust the Taiwan Government. The net trust values are negative 18, positive 21 and negative 18 percentage points respectively. Compared to half a year ago, net trust in the Beijing Central Government has significantly increased by 25 percentage points, registering a new high since December 2009. As for the confidence indicators, 66% expressed confidence in the future of China while net confidence stands at positive 41 percentage points, which has significantly increased by 14 percentage points, registering a new record high since January 2018. On the other hand, 43% and 46% expressed confidence in the future of Hong Kong and in “one country, two systems” respectively, while net confidence stands at negative 8 and negative 1 percentage points respectively. The latter has registered a new record high since January 2018.
